Duke at Northwestern – Preview and Prediction
NORTHWESTERN 6 DUKE (44)
Implied Projected Score: Northwestern 25 Duke 19
MEGALOCKS LINE – Northwestern 3
The Game
The Wildcats’ backs are up against the proverbial wall after two straight upset losses at home. Given the tough Big 10 schedule later in the season, it is imperative that Northwestern get their act together if they want to make a bowl game. The Blue Devils are coming off a home upset of their own at the hands of the mighty Wake Forest Demon Deacons.
The Match-Up
Northwestern offense vs the Duke defense
So far the Wildcats’ offense has been pretty awful. RB Justin Jackson is one of maybe two reliable weapons (WR Austin Carr) but he was held in check vs Illinois St even before he left the game with an injury. QB Clayton Thorson completed less than 50% of his passes last week and has only thrown 1 TD in the first two weeks.
Duke has an excellent secondary and have already recorded 9 sacks on the season through two games. The Wildcats have allowed 6 sacks and were pushed around by Illinois St last week. It feels like tough sledding for Northwestern, although it should be noted, Wake had some success last week probing the SOFT UNDERBELLY of the Duke front seven in the running game.
Duke offense vs Northwestern defense
Duke is currently in a competition with Virginia Tech to see who can fumble the most times this season. Compelling drama. If Duke does not throw-up all over themselves they have a chance to move the ball this week. MEGALOCKS NORTHWESTERN INSIDERS have told us that #1 CB Matthew Harris will not go this week. That means the starting 4 CB for the Wildcats have a combined TWO career starts. Duke QB Daniel Jones has looked very sharp so far and has spread the ball around nicely. Northwestern has given up over 250 yards passing per game. They need to get to the QB (Duke gave up 5 sacks LW) or it will be big trouble.
MEGA morsels
Northwestern won last year’s contest 19-10 at Duke…..The underdog has covered 5 straight in the series…..HC Fitzgerald is only 13-25 ATS as a home favorite in the past 10 years at NW…..The visitor has won 4 straight in the series…..NW is ranked #122 in time of possession…..Duke also needs this game badly given their tough schedule ahead.
Summary
This feels like a low-scoring toss-up. Have to take the underdog catching a lot more points than we expected. Duke will be two-dimensional on offense. Northwestern may be zero-dimensional. If Duke doesn’t go -2 or worse in turnover margin we see a SU victory.
Conclusion
Official play: Duke +6 -106 (do not play lower than +4.5)
Lean: Under any number 42 or better.