Hope everyone is hanging in there and that all is well with family and friends. For those who wish to partake in a little sweet thoroughbred racing action we have assembled some thoughts for today’s Oaklawn Park card.
The racing is competitive at Oaklawn Park and the field sizes are excellent. The handicapping challenge is DAUNTING here but note that the payoffs are among the best in North America on a consistent basis.
Make sure to listen to Nancy Holthus who does a fine job with the analysis!
Best of luck if you take a stab or two! Play safe and have fun.
Race 1
Most likely winner – #1 As Fast As You Can
Value pick – #7 C P Quality
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #2 Desert Thief, #9 A J’s Grand (3rd, 4th)
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park INSIDER says…….A tough handicapping challenge kicks off another great day of racing at Oaklawn Park….Many ways you could go in this tilt…..#1 As Fast As You Can gets back in the excellent Diodoro barn and this trainer is 2/6 (5/6 top 3) on the reclaim at OP the last 365D…..Also note that in 109 claiming races at this distance L365D post #1 is by far the most productive place to be (post #2 is next best)….Recent work looks good and a repeat of her race two back would make her tough to beat…..#7 C P Quality is 4/8 at this distance, shows good figs, and now resides in the underrated barn of J DiVito…..Probably most reliable horse in the field (on paper)…..#2 Desert Thief gets a good inside draw and should be well spotted coming for home….If she can use the running style exhibited in her FG win on Dec 6 she could upset the apple cart……Note that she is 3/10 at OP and 9/37 at this distance….#9 A J’s Grand has figs that look a bit light and she might be too far back to make a big impression…..Will play her on the bottom of the vertical wagers….Been working consistently and features the Asmussen/Santana Jr combo….#12 Destiny’s Love appears to be the speed of the speed but there are a few other horses in here that like to leave quickly….trip may be compromised.
Update. All over the stick. #7 was a game 2nd. #2 ran her eyeballs out. Have to settle for live pick 4 ticket moving forward. Finish 12-7-3-2.
11.70 5.30 3.70
3.80 3.00
4.50
Race 2
Most likely winner – #8 Miss Imperial
Value pick – #3 Madison Way
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #5 Hawt Mess, #10 Josie the E F Five (3rd, 4th)
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park INSIDER says…….WHOA NELLIE…..Some hard-hitting mares in this contest….We’ll side with #8 Miss Imperial and ALL-MEGALOCKS TRAINER TEAM member B Cox….Like a few of the entries in this race she has won two or more races in a row and she loves the distance (4/9, 7/9 top three)……#3 Madison Way has won two straight and has our generally preferred racing style….She is 2/2 at OP and 5/12 at the distance (10/12 top 3)…..Feels like a very reliable bet to get into the trifecta…..#5 Hawt Mess had a great effort last time out at 18-1…..She won’t be that price today but could easily be 8-1 or more…..#10 Josie the E F Five might be overlooked from the outside portion of the gate especially given the rise in class and relatively low-key connections….#4 Adheretome is an obvious contender that has won three straight but we’ll try to beat her on the win end and use for 2nd place and include in multi-leg wagers.
Update. Congrats KABOOM CLUB members. Finish 8-5-3-1. #5 was tougher than a night in jail at 13-1.
5.40 3.60 3.00
11.80 6.20
2.80
Ex = $50 WHOA NELLIE
Tri = $201 YES GUY
$1 Super = $745 (bagged it for 20 cents)
Still kicking in the Pick 4 but may set up to pay a HAM SANDWICH.
Race 3
Most likely winner – #8 Skol Factor
Value pick – #3 Oak Room
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #10 Gambler Rocket
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park INSIDER says…….There are a lot of first-time starters in this race that could jump up and fire a yuuuuge race but it will indeed take something special to defeat #8 Skol Factor who had a CRACKER of a debut and sports a phenomenal workout on April 2….J Rosario is 5/5 in the top-two at the meet and a proud member of the MEGALOCKS JOCKEY MOUNT RUSHMORE….#3 Oak Room is bred to win first time out, resides in the top-notch B Cox barn, and has been working very well….#10 Gambler Rocket should fly under the radar…..Breeding and work pattern suggest a longshot possibility to win…..Jockey C Borel should always be respected and note that trainer W VanMeter is having an excellent meet.
Update. Interesting moments for BOMB CLUB members when 27-1 shot Gambler Rocket went toe to toe with the monster winner…..tab for next start. Another winner. Live to 1-2-4-5-6 in Pick 4. Missed the tri and ex this race given that the #11 came in 2nd at 75-1. Didn’t have 8-all-3.
Finished 8-11-3-6
3.60 3.00 2.60
37.80 13.40
3.40
Race 4
Most likely winner – #5 Blackberry Wine
Value pick – #2 Shooters Shoot
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #1 Cleon Jones
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park INSIDER says…….Feels like a tossup between our top two choices….#5 Blackberry Wine roasted the competition last time out and features the excellent Sharp/Garcia combo…..Feel a little bit more certain that he can rate if needed whereas it may be that #2 Shooters Shoot has to fire and keep on going no matter what…..Note the $300K purchase price….#4 Scabbard has a lot of graded stakes experience but has been a bit of a disappointment…He did have a tough post in the Risen Star but Blackberry Wine also had a tough trip in that same event and was bet down to 4-1…..This is not a great distance for closers at OP and we worry that #4 Scabbard may have too far to come…..#1 has a nice work pattern and a good post/jockey combo…..Maybe he takes a step forward and gets into the mix.
Update. Ham sandwich Pick 4 and another STONE COLD EXACTA winner. Ding Dong battle between #2 and #5. #1 was right there until the final strides. Finish 2-5-3-8.
7.20 4.40 3.60
2.90 3.00
11.50
Race 5
Most likely winner – #2 Millennium Force
Value pick – #6 Casual
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #5 Congratulated, #10 Nasty
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park INSIDER says……Will try and beat #12 Cynical Girl who has a MONSTER jockey change to J Rosario and a ton of early speed….She is 0/3 and it’s likely that one of the lightly raced horses (or first-time starters) has enough punch to take her down….#2 Millennium Force has great connections (Talamo/Amoss) and is well-bred for the dirt….Her only start came in a turf sprint but note that a horse in a similar circumstance almost won the finale yesterday…..#6 Casual is a $175,000 purchase with the Santana/Asmussen combo in her corner and the workout pattern is fantastic…..#5 Congratulated has an excellent work pattern and a trainer/jockey combo that does well at OP…..#10 Nasty will need to move forward but it’s not impossible and jockey F Geroux has made the most of his mounts this meet.
Update. Congrats VALUE CLUB BILLIONAIRE members. Never forget that money is overrated.
Finish 6-11-12-2
11.70 6.00 4.20
6.20 3.60
2.90
Double = $34
Race 6
Most likely winner – #7 Pneumatic
Value pick – #2 Captain Bombastic
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #4 Fortheloveofbourbon, #5 Sixto
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park INSIDER says……Many ways you could go with your top selection….We like the look of #7 Pneumatic who has great connections and is well-bred to handle the extra distance….Work pattern is strong…..Should be well-spotted turning for home…..#2 Captain Bombastic offers value if allowed to go off in the 4-1 range….His first start as a 3-yr old was improved and the jockey/post combo is helpful….Hasn’t done anything wrong in 4 starts….#6 Giocare has Pletcher/Geroux in her corner but Pletcher is on an 0-5 run at this track and distance….Not impossible for the win….#9 Ancient Warrior has a great jockey change but has a tough post and has lost three straight at this class…..In the ongoing search for bombs will look at #4 Fortheloveofbourbon who stretches out and has underrated trainer P D’Amato calling the shots (5/21 at the meet)……#5 Sixto was outmatched in the Gotham at AQU but his first start was solid and note the jockey change to M Garcia…..potential SURPRISE PACKAGE.
Update. Congrats STONE COLD EXACTA CLUB. Finished 7-2-8-1. Couldn’t get the #4 or #5 to hang in the top-4.
4.40 2.90 2.30
3.10 2.60
3.90
Race 7
Most likely winner – #11 Earner
Value pick – #4 Feathered Indian
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #10 Shaka (3rd, 4th)
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park INSIDER says……#11 Earner is the horse to beat but will have to overcome an outside draw….He was a beaten fav is his first start, has a strong work tab, great connections…..Only worry is can he get the distance?…..#4 Feathered Indian is bred to get the distance and comes out of the excellent Diodoro barn….Note however that MSW is Diodoro’s weakest class (1/8 L365 days)….Should get a square price on him and he is a must-use in multi-leg wagers….#10 Shaka has had trouble at the start in all three of his starts…Getting Rosario on board won’t hurt and we suspect he will save ground and rally from the back for a late piece.
UDPATE. Winner. Couldn’t catch the underneath horses. Finish 11-1-6-12
3.70 3.20 2.60
7.10 5.20
3.60
Race 8
Most likely winner – #4 Gallant Plunger
Value pick – None
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #2 All West, #6 Starship Zeus (3rd, 4th)
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park INSIDER says……..Will try and beat two of the logical favorites in this tilt, those being #3 Mo Gotcha (missed by 5+ lengths at similar class in each of last three starts) and #9 Proverb who is 1/9 lifetime…..#4 Gallant Plunger graduated on a DQ last start but he just might be at his best at a route of ground and he has been the fav in each of his last three starts….#2 All West is 20-1 on the ML but we think that is a bit optimistic…..Could surprise off a big win and Talamo is back on board….#6 Starship Zeus is 3/56 lifetime but he has picked up 28 (!) 2nd and 3rd place finishes combined….He finished 2nd in each of his last three starts at this exact distance of 1M….Can see him slogging in for a late piece at a good price.
UPDATE. Got a few small slices but not enough to cash buh buh. Finish 9-3-2-4.
7.60 4.00 3.00
4.10 3.30
3.60
Race 9
Most likely winner – #3 Tom’s d’Etat (Best bet)
Value pick – None
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #8 Bankit (3rd, 4th) (15-1 ML)
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park INSIDER says……..Time for the Oaklawn Mile!…..#3 Tom’s d’Etat lays over the field from a speed perspective and is the one to beat…..He has a great boxscore (9/16 lifetime, 1/1 at the distance) and versatile running style….Will avoid the two horses sure to be supported at the windows that are both making their 4 yr old debuts…..#2 Mr Money peaked last summer but has been off since early November…..#14 Improbable has a tough post to deal with and we would be a surprise from way out there…..#8 Bankit was a disappointment last time out and is just 1/11 over the past year and change…He has the figs to hit the superfecta and you know we love some Santana Jr.
UPDATE. Congrats MEGALOCKS ORACLE CLUB members. Best bet WINNER. Bankit rolls in for 3rd. Sadly the #14 killed the payoffs but what can you do? Finish 3-14-8-4.
3.70 2.90 2.50
3.80 3.60
4.70
Ex = $15
Tri = $90
$1 Super = $224
Race 10
Most likely winner – #12 Hunt the Front
Value pick – #8 Urbanite
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #4 What a Country, #6 Ugo
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park INSIDER says…..#12 Hunt the Front has a troublesome post position when you consider his running style but he did show a bit of ability to leave on Jan 24…Rosario won’t hurt his chances…..#8 Urbanite has been off since mid-January but is well-bred and has the stellar Santana Jr/Asmussen connection….We expect to see him passing horses in the latter half of the mile and just might be a SURPRISE PACKAGE…..#4 What a Country has an interesting work pattern (3 str 7F) with a decent race mixed in the middle (2nd place finish to Blackberry Wine)……Might be good enough to hit the ticket at a big price…..#6 Ugo makes his second start and has a lot going on….Blinkers on….change in distance….connections that do well together…..and note the excellent work tab…..#7 Oxide will take some money but is 0/3 and couldn’t hold on at a track typically helpful to speed types…#10 Dean Martini is 0/6.
UPDATE. Impressive win by the #1. #12 and #4 hit the ticket but didn’t have the #1 on top. Finish 1-12-10-4.
19.60 9.40 5.60
4.00 3.00
3.50
Race 11
Most likely winner – #8 Taishan
Value pick – #9 Digital
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #11 Background (3rd, 4th)
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park INSIDER says…..Will try and beat two of the likely favorites in this big time race……#8 Taishan is coming off a big score and will deal with much tougher foes today….He looks to be improving and might be sitting on his lifetime best….#9 Digital will be forwardly placed just not sure if he can get the distance…..Odds should be spicy….#11 Background likely doesn’t have the MINERALS to win this affair but has shown the ability to pass horses and might be able to clunk up for 3rd or 4th at monster odds….#1 Basin is a legit contender but will try and beat him for the win and use him underneath in horizontal wagers….#4 Thousand Words will take some $$ as well but that last race is a concern.
UPDATE. Whoa Nellie. 45-1 shot takes the big race. Finish 3-12-8-1. #8 Taishan ran a big one but couldn’t seal the deal.
95.60 24.50 10.80
8.00 5.10
3.50
Race 12
Most likely winner – #5 Popular Kid
Value pick – #10 Sonny Smack
Potential bombs to hit the ticket at a big price – #1 Jungle Warfare, #12 Two Emmys
MEGALOCKS Oaklawn Park INSIDER says…….#5 Popular Kid is razor sharp and gets a beatable field, great post, and Rosario in the irons…..#10 Sonny Smack doesn’t have the racing style that we like (come from behind) but is a safe bet to hit the ticket….#1 Jungle Warfare is 2/22 life but has a great work on display (April 6) and will probably find his way into the top 4….If you want to spice up a probable chalky finale you might want to sprinkle the #12 Two Emmys at the bottom of your vertical wagers…..Versatile racing style and good boxscore (7-2-3-0).
UPDATE. ARGH. #5 ran his eyeballs out. Finish 11-5-4-10. Very surprised by the #11 but is was an excellent performance.
77.80 29.70 14.20
4.50 3.40
6.20
Ex=$444
Tri = $4,788
$1 Super = $10,568
See ya Monday!