Fresno St at Toledo – Preview and Prediction
TOLEDO 20.5 FRESNO ST (57.5)
Implied Projected Score: Toledo 39 Fresno St 18.5
MEGALOCKS LINE – Toledo 23
The Game
Thou shall not doubt the Toledo Rockets. We learned our lesson in week one. The Rockets are now 2-0 with a bye week ahead and get to face the rebuilding Fresno St Bulldogs at home in what should be another lay-up. Fresno got beat up on the ground by Nebraska in week one and then took care of FCS opponent Sacramento St in week two.
The Match-Up
Toledo offense vs Fresno St defense
QB Logan Woodside has been phenomenal so far early in the season. That gives the Rockets a deadly offense because we all know about the running game. The OL is playing lights out and have NOT allowed a sack yet in two games. They should be able to run and pass pretty much at will in this game. You can probably bank on a couple of big plays from WR Cody Thompson who has 7 receptions for 259 yards (37/pop) and two TDs. The Fresno defense is ranked #32 after two games but Nebraska was very vanilla and Armstrong only needed to throw 10 times. Then they played Sac St. We rate the Bulldogs’ defense pretty low in the scheme of things BUT facts are facts and maybe they are a lot better than last year ? Hard to believe. But possible.
Fresno St offense vs Toledo defense
Fresno has looked like a functioning offense so far. Last season they only averaged 315 yards per game and were a disaster, in large part due to the injuries at QB. Chason Virgil has looked ok leading the passing attack so far and it will be interesting to see what they can get done against the Toledo secondary. They have more talented WRs than Arkansas St or Maine so I guess we will have to wait and see. Or guess is a lot of short stuff and maybe enough big plays to keep things interesting for a while.
MEGA morsels
Toledo is a fantastic 14-2-2 ATS in their last 18 games…..Fresno has only covered one of their last 8 games on the road….Toledo has a bye next week so we doubt they will be looking past this game….Toledo has done well despite being (-4) in turnovers so maybe Fresno can stay in this one with some timely takeaways….MEGALOCKS PROPS DEPT…..DOES TOLEDO GIVE UP A SACK ? …..Yes +800….No -1000.
Summary
This would have hit our card if the number was -17 or better. No such luck. Toledo is playing great football and should hit enough big plays to keep this game well under control.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Lean: Toledo at any number -21 or better.