Clemson at Georgia Tech – Preview and Prediction
CLEMSON 9 GEORGIA TECH (56)
Implied Projected Score: Clemson 32.5 Georgia Tech 23.5
MEGALOCKS LINE – Clemson 10
The Game
Here we go. Clemson kicks off ACC play in a Thursday night showdown with Georgia Tech. Clemson survived their first two tests against Auburn and Troy and followed that up with a thumping of South Carolina St at home. Georgia Tech has already MATCHED their win TOTAL from last season with a 3-0 start (amaze your poker buddies with that factoid).
The Match-Up
Clemson offense vs Georgia Tech defense
If you are insane enough to listen to all the noise out there you are sure that Clemson is overrated and doomed. Well, they have still managed to beat two underrated opponents (Auburn, Troy) and get their frustrations out with a 59-0 win over SC St last week. The offense still has all the weapons you could ask for including one of the best QBs in college football.
It is very true that the Tigers have not looked very crisp so far in 2016. Their offense is ranked a mediocre (for them) 44th in the FBS and even more concerning is the running game averaging only 4.2 yards per carry. The good news is that this receiving unit is like nothing the Yellow Jackets have seen OR will see this season. The Yellow Jackets are also getting no PENETRATION in the form of sacks or tackles for loss so it appears on the surface that Clemson will be able to put up 30+. Statistically, the Georgia Tech defense looks pretty good but they have faced Boston College, Vanderbilt and something called Mercer. For the record, last season Clemson put up 537 yards on Georgia Tech, however, the game was at home.
Georgia Tech offense vs Clemson defense
Ok what do we know right now ? The Yellow Jackets are ranked #77 in total offense but have played against two pretty good defenses (Vandy, BC). Last season Georgia Tech was held to 230 yards offense and only 71 yards rushing against Clemson. There does not appear to be enough changes on both sides of the ball in this match-up to think that Georgia Tech will be able to move the ball consistently. We do like QB Justin Thomas. We like their ability to convert on 3rd down. They are just going to need to hit some big plays to stay close. It is very early in the season, but just to throw it out there, Clemson is ranked #4 in 3rd down conversion defense (#4 – 18%) and #6 in yards per play defense (3.68 !).
MEGA Minutia
The home team has won 10 of the last 11 SU between these two teams….The last two times Clemson faced Ga Tech on the road they lost 28-6 and 31-17…..Paul Johnson is 7-2 SU at home with Ga Tech vs ranked teams…..UNFLAPPABLE BET THE TRENDS GUY and CROWD WILL BE ROCKING GUY have teamed up to make it their game of the millenium…..Clemson has Louisville on deck which has huger than huge ACC implications now that Florida St was destroyed by the Cards…..Clemson played a 54 minute game last week….The 3rd and 4th Qs were 12 min each…..Not only does this #$%$# up the stats rankings on NCAA.org (nobody cares except us) but it means that your Clemson -50 wager was graded no-action b/c they did not get in 55 minutes. Boom.
Summary
Color us shocked at the line move below 10. Clemson has not looked super sharp yet but they owned the stats against Auburn. Troy is better than advertised. The Yellow Jackets have not been tested yet. Last season the yardage was 537-230 in favor of the Tigers and we just cannot see it being a lot different this time around. We absolutely HATE going against all the trends on earth in this one but the stats tell us that Clemson should be able to win this one by double digits. Of course, stats are not everything.
Conclusion
Official play: Clemson -8.5 -112