2021 MLB National League Central Predictions and Wagering Guide
The MLB season is quickly approaching and there’s no better time to think about bagging some futures. Rosters are getting finalized and we have a better idea of the injury situations around the league. We prefer to take our stabs close to the start of the year. It’s a tradeoff between having more complete information vs missing out on a better price that was previously available.
In our view there’s not enough talk about how much value you can get in the futures market. Here is the key. SHOP AROUND! Get as many outs as you can. You get to have a rooting interest for an entire season AND have the opportunity to hedge and lock in equity if you make wise choices.
WAR rank is taken from Fangraphs. PECOTA win totals per Baseball Prospectus.
Let
National League Central
Data as of MARCH 31
Team MLB WAR rank PECOTA win total
Cardinals 18 78.1
Brewers 16 88.4
Cubs 19 85.4
Reds 20 78.8
Pirates 30 60.9
The Cardinals have one of the best organizations in baseball but the batting order isn’t that deep and their pitching staff has already been hit by the injury bug……..The Brewers are in the mix BUT their roster is pretty uninspiring when you consider the hitting and the pitching….Hmmmm….I guess that’s not great……The Cubs are a prime candidate for late season FIRE SALE and would SHOCK the WORLD by simply making the playoffs……..The Reds have the best rotation in the division and an underrated lineup…..That makes them a SURPRISE PACKAGE………The Pirates are in total rebuild mode but have an EPIC stadium and great fans so we have no desire to slam their prospects for 2021.
Data as of MARCH 31
Remember how we said to SHOP AROUND? Here are the odds from three large and reputable books to give you an idea of where the market currently stands. We search for the best price among 10-12 shops but there’s no point listing them all here. Three are listed for illustrative purposes and we may have gotten slightly better value (rogue lines) at other locales.
NOTE: Most books list season-long win% vs actual values just in case we have issues related to the plandemic once again. We’ll note the 162-game equivalent below.
Season Win Total
Cardinals 86.67 ov-115 85.86 un-136 86.67 un-120
Brewers 81.81 ov-115 82.62 ov-150 83.43 ov-135
Cubs 78.57 ov-115 78.57 ov-123 78.57 ov-125
Reds 81.81 ov -115 80.19 ov-110 81.81 un-155
Pirates 57.51 ov-115 59.13 ov-111 59.13 un-125
Win the NL Central
Cardinals +135 +132 +143
Brewers +240 +253 +285
Reds +350 +398 +350
NOTE – Will consider NL and World Series futures in our next post.
MEGALOCKS says:
The division looks like the clear WEAKLING in the National League. Would have liked to see the numbers on the Cards and Cubs be a bit higher so we could get some unders in play. Tough calls across the board. Best value appears to be to win the division.
What is our SWEET ACTION?
Season Win Totals
None.
To win the NL Central
Brewers +285 (half unit)
Reds +398 (half unit)
FINAL POST with WORLD SERIES, AL, NL UP NEXT!!