TCU at SMU – Preview and Prediction
TCU 21 SMU (64)
Implied Projected Score: TCU 42.5 SMU 21.5
MEGALOCKS LINE – TCU 17
The Game
The Horned Frogs looks to squeak through a Friday night road test with SMU before heading into their tough Big 12 schedule. SMU is sitting at 2-1 with a couple of wins over soft competition and a loss to Baylor in which they were tied at halftime.
The Match-Up
TCU offense vs SMU defense
The Horned Frogs have the #4 ranked offense in the FBS. Kyle Hicks has ran the ball well (225 yards) and is 2nd in the team in receptions with 15. QB Hill has been pretty good so far but not as efficient as he needs to be for TCU to reach their potential. Only 4 TDs vs 3 INTs. Hill will also be without #1 receiver K Turpin for this game.
The SMU defense has been ok but was only challenged by Baylor. They were tied 6-6 at the half and held Baylor QB Seth Russell under 300 Y passing and picked him off twice. SMU is #21 in turnover margin and we can see them forcing a mistake or two in this game. Overall, we see TCU moving the ball pretty well for most of the game but do expect SMU to keep this from getting out of hand.
SMU offense vs TCU defense
Losing senior QB Matt Davis for the season (ACL) was a tough blow for the Mustangs. Ben Hicks has stepped in as a redshirt freshman and only completed 48% of his passes while throwing 2 TD vs 5 INT. The good news is that the TCU secondary has been pretty awful so far (#104 pass efficiency D) and there will be big plays available. WR Courtland Sutton is a future NFL draft pick and already has 336 yards receiving at 26 yards per reception. Braeden West provides a solid ground attack. We think SMU keeps the Horned Frogs busy on defense but QB Hicks is the wild card. He cannot give the game away with mistakes. (Ed note: TCU has only forced one turnover all season).
MEGA Minutia
SMU is 5-2 L7 ATS in the series and the over is 6-1-1 L8…..TCU has the Sooners on deck…..SMU has conference play to look forward to after this week……TCU is converting 57% on 3rd down and if they hit at 50% in this game that could mean a point spread cover is going down.
Summary
This feels like too many points but we cannot trust the SMU defense yet as they did give up almost 46 points per game last season. There is some perceived value in taking the dog. We just cannot fully recommend. THEY ARE GONNA KILL EM GUY may take another one in the chops.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Lean: SMU at any number +21 or better.