Colorado at Oregon – Preview and Prediction
OREGON 10 COLORADO (68.5)
Implied Projected Score: Oregon 39.25 Colorado 29.25
MEGALOCKS LINE – Oregon 13
The Game
The Ducks and the Buffaloes open their PAC 12 schedules on Saturday in Eugene in what could be a lot more competitive game than many people think. Colorado hung tough vs Michigan on the road until their starting QB was injured while Oregon lost by 3 points on the road at Nebraska.
The Match-Up
Oregon offense vs Colorado defense
They just keep getting it done. Despite losing star RB Royce Freeman early in the Nebraska game the Ducks still managed to roll for 336 yards on the ground. Freeman will be back at some point this season but his status is uncertain for this week. What we do know is that LT Tyrell Crosby and big play WR Devon Allen are done for the year with injuries.
Colorado’s defense is significantly improved this season (#4 FBS total defense) but have only faced one team with a decent offense (Michigan). The Oregon offense is an entirely different animal BUT we do not think it will be a hot-knife-thru-butter type game. The last two seasons the Buffs have held Oregon to 41 and 44 despite having less talented stop units.
Colorado offense vs Oregon defense
The big story this week is trying to figure out if starting QB Sefo Liufau is ready to start the game. MEGALOCKS CAMPUS SPIES have indicated that he was in a boot on Monday nursing his sprained ankle but did participate in practice on Tuesday in full pads. Then again, S Montez is listed as #1 QB on the “depth chart” right now. Hmm. Bottom line ? Liufau has played great this season (0 INT, 2nd leading rusher) and think it would be a lot to ask of Montez to lead the Buffs to a solid performance on the road at Oregon.
Colorado can take some consolation in the fact that the Oregon defense appears to be just as bad as last season’s version which was….pretty bad. And the injury list is pretty extensive. Right now the strength of the Buffs’ offense is in their deep WR group and they may not be able to utilize that effectively if they go with the backup QB. It’s hard to really know.
MEGA Minutia
Colorado better do a better job with the punt team….Last week they gave up a blocked punt TD and a punt return TD at Michigan…..Buffs are 0-5 ATS L5 against Oregon…..Oregon is 42-17-1 to the over L60 home games……Oregon is 2-6 L8 as a home favorite.
Summary
Too many injuries to significant players for us to get a feel for this one. Given that the line is sitting at 10/10.5 right now we expect Liufau to get the start and go as long as he can. He is a gamer. Total looks a bit high, but then again, Oregon gave up 28 to UC Davis, so it is likely the Buffs will score more than a few TDs no matter who is at QB.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Lean: None