Hey everyone.
Here’s the Week 6 Boxscore and Wagering review. FBS vs FBS MATCHUPS ONLY.
Hard to believe that we are essentially 50% of the way thru the regular season!
Boxscore review:
AAC
UTSA 49 Temple 34 – Nice to see Frank Harris back at QB for UTSA……338, 3-0 TD to INT, Temple had 472 pass yards and threw the ball 65 times……also had 542-495 yd edge but were (-2) in t/o margin
Florida Atlantic 20 Tulsa 17 – Owls get up 14-CACK early and survived Tulsa late push……378-376 yd edge for FAU, even game
Navy 27 North Texas 24 – another even AAC match-up….Mean Green 473-406 yd edge but Navy rushed for 331 yards and were +2 in t/o margin
UConn 38 Rice 31 – misleading final alert………Rice with 474-319 yd edge but were (-4) in t/o margin….first win for Huskies
UAB 56 South Florida 35 – first win over and FBS foe this season for your boy Trent Dilfer and UAB……56-21 4Q and USF gets a pair of garbage TDs……608-471 yd edge for UAB
ACC
Clemson 17 Wake Forest 12……Eventually grinded away and build 17-6 lead…..WF with late TD to make it close……338-239 yd edge for Tigers, outrushed Wake Forest 207-102
Florida St 39 Virginia Tech 17 – Hokies cut lead to 22-17 with 2nd half KO RET TD but didn’t score the rest of the 2nd half….452-313 yd edge for Noles, RB Trey Benson 200 rush yards, late 85-yard TD
North Carolina 40 Syracuse 7 – BLOWOUT CITY…..QB Drake Maye 442, 3-0 TD to INT…..644-221 yd edge for Tar Heels…..Note that WR Tez Walker made his first start for North Carolina as the NCAA finally gave in!! Great news.
Georgia Tech 23 Miami 20 – WOW. WOW. One of the craziest losses in recent years. 30 seconds left Miami could take a knee down near GT 30 yard line……Fumble with 30 seconds left…..oh well….Still up 20-17……Tech gets to around midfield with 10 seconds left………Pass to a wide open dood behind the secondary! TD Georgia Tech. 23-20 win. Game over, thanks for coming. Killer ACC loss for Hurricanes……Miami had 452-250 yd edge
NC State 48 Marshall 41 – crazy back-and-forth game……stayed within one score until Pack got TD with 6 min left to make it 48-34…..Herd TD with just over a minute left to cut lead to 7 points but that was it…..Pack offense came alive with QB change to MJ Morris 265 4-3 TD to INT, but defense got roasted by mediocre Marshall THROW GAME
Louisville 33 Notre Dame 20 – Cards with a yuuuge win! Get to 5-0 and Irish take their 2nd loss…..330-398 yd edge for LUA-VUH, dominated 2nd half and scored 26 points. Irish QB Sam Hartman with 3 INT
Boston College 27 Army 24 – Eagles with game-winning TD with just 25 seconds left to snag key road win and get to 3-3….372-266 yd edge for BC and they held Army to 161 rush yds
Big 12
Oklahoma St 29 Kansas St 21 – dull performance for Cats who now have unexpected conference loss…..Pokes got up 10-CACK and were never seriously threatened thanks to their defense who kept making plays…..412-372 yd edge for Oklahoma St and they were +3 in t/o margin which was yuuuuuge,
Oklahoma 34 Texas 30 – Yes, guy……this game delivers almost every time…….Texas comes back from 10 point deficit to take the lead 30-27 with a minute left…..Sooners long drive to win game with 15 seconds left…..Certainly looked like these teams are pretty evenly matched……527-486 yd edge for Longhorns but were (-3) in t/o margin……they did however get a blocked punt TD
Iowa St 27 TCU 14 – misleading final…..398-353 yd edge for Horned Frogs but were (-4) in t/o margin, Cyclones won 2nd half 17-7 to put game away
Texas Tech 39 Baylor 14 – Dull effort from Bears after miracle comeback last week vs UCF…….366-341 yd edge for Texas Tech…..Back-to-back impressive wins for Red Raiders who could be turning the corner
Kansas 51 UCF 22 – Jayhawks played without starting QB J Daniels once again but did MASSIVE work on the ground…..399 rush yards and 490-371 yd edge overall……3 RBs with 90+ rush yards
Big Ten
CORN 20 Illinois 6 – sloppy game but well-deserved win for CORN NATION for held on a goal line stand to start the game and never looked back….312-310 yd edge for CORN, they shut out Illinois in the 2nd half…..Each team with 3 turnovers…..Nebraska QB H Haarberg made some mistakes but had 154 pass, 82 rush (TD).
Michigan 52 Minnesota 10 – Maybe Minnesota is that bad, yo?…..432-169 yd edge for Michigan, 191 rush 241 pass and +2 in t/o margin…..Wolverines started with an early pick 6 and never looked back…..Booked another pick 6 later in the game.
Ohio St 37 Maryland 17 – Ohio St got off to a really slow start and it was 10-10 at the half…..Outscored the Terps 27-7 in the 2nd half……382-302 yd edge for Buckeyes
Wisconsin 24 Rutgers 13 – 358-275 yd edge for Badgers…..up 17-0 at half never threatened……Rutgers have Wisconsin -13 backers a nasty BACK DOOR SURPRISE…….late TD to close gap from 18 to 11 points.
Purdue 20 Purdue 14 – Iowa jumps out to 10-0 lead…..10-7 at the half…..Opened up to 20-7…..BOILER UP 343-291 yard edge but gave up 181 rush yds which was the difference….Iowa +1 in t/o, still negative margin on the season…..Iowa had 3 (!) sacks all year coming into this game and booked 6 in this contest, take note improved rush attack behind K Johnson and possibly better ability to get to the QB going forward
Conference USA
Liberty 21 Sam Houston 16 – WHOA, NELLIE…..Liberty wins yardage battle 448-327 but were held scoreless in 2nd half!….Also had to survive FOUR tries from inside the 5-yard line in the final minute to hang on and win by 5.
WKU 35 La Tech 28 – TOPPERS cruised to 35-7 (!) halftime lead…..Didn’t score in 2nd half and LT almost made it all the way back….426-297 yd edge for WKU
Jacksonville St 45 MTSU 30 – Weird game….Misleading final but also a tale of two halves…..MTSU led 23-7 at the break and looked HOME and COOLED but Jacksonville St went nuts in the 2nd half and outscored MTSU 38-7 (!)……That outburst included a pick 6…..MTSU wins yardage battle 563-401 and had well over 400 passing yards
New Mexico St 34 FIU 17 – fairly even game……439-405 yd edge for Aggies but they won the stats and the turnover battle in the 4Q……was 17-17 after 3Q……17-CACK in the 4Q to seal it up.
Independents
<see notes in other conference sections>
MAC
Toledo 41 UMass 24 – 514-439 yd edge for Rockets…..UMass led at half (sound familiar?) and blew it (sound familiar?)…..Playing competitively but defense is DUMPSTER JUICE
Northern Illinois 55 Akron 14 – total domination…..571-253 yd edge, 380 rush yards!…..First start for QB Tahj Bullock was mediocre but not unexpected…..gotta start somewhere
Eastern Michigan 24 Ball St 10 – misleading final…..306-253 yd edge for Ball St but were (-2) in t/o margin
Buffalo 37 Central Michigan 13 – REALLY misleading final…..FIRE UP CHIPS with 360-355 yd edge but were (-4) in t/o margin…..Buffalo started 0-4 but are now 2-4 and 2-0 in MAC play…..Not dead yet, yo
Ohio 42 Kent St 17 – no contest….466-228 yd edge, some tough games coming up for the Bobcats including an emerging JABBAWOCKEE in Northern Illinois
Miami Ohio 27 Bowling Green 0 – 356-135 yd edge…..Miami has won last two games (vs turds) by a combined score of 50-3
Mountain West
Boise St 35 San Jose St 27 – Broncos playing with fire……San Jose St up 27-7!….27-14 at half…..Boise St outscores Spartans 21-CACK in 2nd half…..491-429 yd edge for Boise St and 262 rush yds…..Another big game for RB A Jeanty (167 yards) and San Jose St QB C Cordeiro played well in the loss (325Y, 0-1 TD to INT)
Wyoming 24 Fresno St 19 – the Pokes do it again!….Home dog straight up win….Led 24-7 at the half and held on to win…..329-324 yd edge for Wyoming…..only 130 rush yards and a surprising 199 pass yards (!)
Utah St 44 Colorado St 24 – YIKES…..did NOT see this coming…..Especially since Colorado St got off to a quick 17-0 lead……Brutal game for Rams QB B Fowler-Nicolosi and it comes vs a previously suspect defense…..Utah St QB C Legas made a few mistakes and got sacked a bunch but averaged 13 yards per attempt……639-320 yd edge for Utah St….Rams gotta regroup for home game vs Boise St this Saturday
PAC 12
USC 43 Arizona 41 (3 OT) ……WHAT THE WHAT??? Another struggle for the Trojans but they come out on top in 3-OT……QB C Williams didn’t go nuts threw the air (219, TD) but had three rushing TDs and made a great play in the 3rd OT to get into the end zone…..NOTE – Wildcats with 506-365 yd edge, 203 rush and 303 pass, t/o margin was even…..USC with road trip to Notre Dame next week
Oregon St 52 California 40 – entertaining game…..Beavers led 35-32 after 3Q and then scored the next 17 points to take a 20 point lead……499-448 yd edge for Oregon St, both teams had 200+ rush and 200+ pass…..Beavers QB DJU and 5 TD passes…..Cal started a new QB in Fernando Mendoza and he looked decent
UCLA 25 Washington St 17 – COOGS led 17-12 after 3Q……UCLA with a pair of quick TDs in the 4th Q to win the game…..Misleading final……470-216 yd edge for Bruins…..were +2 in t/o margin……UCLA with 180 rush 290 pass in a statistically dominant effort
Colorado 27 Arizona St 24 – Sun Devils won the yardage battle 392-295 but lost on last second FG, held Buffs to 239 pass yards
SEC
Alabama 26 Texas A&M 20 – Aggies looked great coming off the bus again and in the weight room during the week but couldn’t hold a 17-10 halftime lead……344-306 yd edge for ROLL TIDE……Aggies with 6 sacks but Tide had 5.
LSU 49 Missouri 39 – Tigers jump out to 22-7 lead but couldn’t hold…..The PULP FICTION GIMP makes his weekly appearance for this one along with the ball gag and blowtorch…….Missouri +5 and +6 backers feeling great!….Great insight getting that live dog at a nice price…..up 22-7 and they 25-17 at the half…..4Q TD gives them a 39-35 lead! Whoa Tigers!….At least they’ll still cover….uh oh…..LSU driving…..TD with under 3 minutes left…..42-39 LSU……Missouri still covering…….Missouri ball deep in their own end with 30 seconds left…..can they get into FG range?…..Just don’t throw a PICK 6……uh oh…..INTERCEPTED!…..Just fall down and the game is over…..Nope…..LSU TD…..49-39 win and the cover…..Game over, thanks for coming, start the cars, don’t forget to wear those masks!
Ole Miss 27 WOO PIG 20 – Not a great offensive performance from the Rebels but they got there……349-286 yd edge…..held WOO PIG to 36 rush yds…..Ole Miss QB J Dart mediocre 16-25 153Y, 1-0 TD to INT.
Mississippi St 41 Western Michigan 28 – Bulldogs got 17-zip lead but couldn’t blow it open vs MAC turd…..440-413 yd edge
Georgia 51 Kentucky 13 – WHOA NELLIE…..Georgia first decent start of the season and it was a doozy….Helped by Kentucky stupidity by Dawgs were on a mission……608-183 yd edge…..Held Kentucky to 55 rush yards….QB Carson Beck 389 yards 4-1 TD to INT
Florida 38 Vanderbilt 14 – comfortable win, 495-340 yd edge, 215 rush 280 pass for Gators
Sun Belt
Old Dominion 17 Southern Miss 13 – Don’t look now but the Monarchs are 3-3, BAYBEE……337-276 yd edge for ODU…..Fell behind 10-0 early and then only allowed a FG in the final 3Q of play
South Alabama 55 ULM 7 – WHOA NELLIE….ULM almost beat App St last week and the Jags haven’t been up to their standards so far……blowout city…..589-250 yd edge, 202 rush 387 pass
Troy 37 Arkansas St 3 – Trojans 2nd straight big win……587-203 yard edge including 351 rush, Army up next
Louisiana 34 Texas St 30 – BOBS led 30-21 with 10 minutes left…..Cajuns with 2 TDs in the final 6 minutes and picked off Texas St during their attempt for a game winning drive…..530-423 yd edge for Texas St and they were ahead or tied for almost the entire game.
Betting review
“Official” Plays
Colorado St -3 (L) – up 17-0 and then collapsed; Utah St dominated the stats
Georgia TT under (L) – it took almost half a season but the Dawgs offense finally showed up early and often
Small plays/Leans
8-3.
Win – ROLL TIDE, Oklahoma, Louisiana, New Mexico St, CORN, FAU TT under, Northern Illinois, Wyoming
Lose – Bowling Green, MTSU, Ole Miss
Once again, good handicapping of the card overall but picking the “best” of the bunch for “official” plays worked out badly. 5-15 on the season on the “official picks”. Small plays/Leans are now 43-26 (62%). In 2022, the “official” plays were 23-23 and the small plays/leans were 114-90 (56%). We’ll continue to examine our process on a weekly basis and do a much deeper dive once the season is completed.
We’ll continue to send out our favorite picks of the week as “official plays” as we have always done (perceived line value, match-up edges, coaching, trends, etc.) but as we noted last week, we recommend that it’s probably best to risk the same wager amount on the small/plays leans as you do with the “official” picks until things get turned around.
As always, whatever you decide, play safe!
Season Win Total Club
UMass over 2 – one win in the bag, Merrimack is as close to an automatic win as you can get. Army and Liberty aren’t unbeatable, and Connecticut is certainly beatable. Can’t beat a UMass sweat!
Akron over 3.5 – another one of our picks had the starting QB go down. Need three MAC wins and not impossible with that schedule.
Virginia Tech over 5.5 – very easy schedule in the back half of the season. New QB starting to look better but it won’t be easy to get to six wins.
Colorado St over 4.5 – should be able to bag three more wins with their remaining schedule. Disappointing result this weekend.
Kentucky over 7 – automatic loss out of the way this week. Sitting at 5-1.
Tulane under 9.5 – one loss in the bag. Have a small handful of tough games left to go.
UConn over 5 – on life-support but got a win this week at Rice.
Futures and Props Club
This is the time of year when things start to take shape. Things look decent in many markets but who knows! As always, we’ll keep you posted on any additions!
Sun Belt Champion – South Alabama at +330 and Georgia Southern at +1600 are live.
MAC Champion – Toledo at +180 and Miami Ohio at +803 are live.
ACC Champion – Florida St at +175 and UNC at +1100 look good especially after YOUR Miami Hurricanes choked away a win.
PAC 12 Champion – USC at +200 is in decent shape just hoping they can find a way to get in the title game with that D.
CUSA Champion – Western Kentucky at +125 is in decent shape. 80% shot or better to make the title game but Liberty looks good too.
SEC West Champion – LSU needs to take down ROLL TIDE. Ole Miss at 20-1 is still breathing would need to upset Georgia (haaaaa) to even have a shot (assuming ROLL TIDE loses at some point)
Mountain West Champion – Boise St is somehow finding a way to stay undefeated in conference play. Colorado St at 18-1 doesn’t look good after getting cooked by Utah St.
AAC Champion – SMU at +320 is live, FAU isn’t very good but they’re 1-0 in AAC play at +650.
National Champion – Feel good about adding Oklahoma at 40-1 in late September. Also have GA, USC, Texas, Penn St. Not bullet-proof but it’s likely that two of those teams make the playoff.
Heisman Trophy winner – Good-looking portfolio with Williams, Daniels, Nix, and Penix. The top-three favs on BetOnline right now are Penix, Williams, Nix.