Hey everyone.
Here’s the Week 8 Boxscore and Wagering review. FBS vs FBS MATCHUPS ONLY.
Let’s go!
Boxscore review:
AAC
AMU 55 Temple 0 – Temple had to go with brutal backup QB for 2nd straight game…..563-131 yd edge for SMU, 205 rush 358 pass, Mustangs stay undefeated in AAC play
Rice 42 Tulsa 10 – surprising blow out win for HOOT HOOT…..512-294 yd edge and +3 in t/o margin, Rice moves to 4-3 just two more wins for bowl eligibility
UTSA 36 FAU 10 – total domination after Owls took 10-7 lead on a pick 6…..437-162 yd edge…..Roadrunners one of three remaining teams in AAC with undefeated conference records (Tulane, SMU)
Tulane 35 North Texas 28 – WHOA, NELLIE….close call for the Wave….led 21-CACK at halftime….Mean Green battled back to tie it at 28…..Tulane TD with just over 2 min left to take winning 35-28 lead……439-426 yd edge for Tulane
Memphis 45 UAB 21 – misleading final……UAB won the yardage battle 381-352 and they were tied 21-21 at half but Memphis rolled 24-CACK in the second half….UAB 208 rush yds
East Carolina 10 Charlotte 7 – WOW….not a surprise that it was dull and low scoring but note that Charlotte won the yardage battle 328-127 on the road and their D continues to play sneaky good football
USF 24 UConn 21 – UConn pulls a UConn……21-10 lead in the 4Q…..USF with 2 TD in the final 10 minutes……463-368 yd edge for Bulls….Head into bye week at 4-4!
ACC
Miami 28 Clemson 20 (2 OT) – Yes, guy….YOUR Miami Hurricanes down 17-7 but comeback and win in 2 OT without their starting QB….362-345 yd edge for Canes, outrushed Clemson 211-31, goal line stand in 2OT to seal it up
Florida St 38 Duke 20 – nasty FRONT DOOR cover action smokes Duke +14 backers….Duke up 20-17 heading into 4Q…..Florida St with 3 TD in 4Q……420-273 yd edge for Noles, had 268-76 yard edge thru the air…..Check status of Duke QB Riley Leonard who got banged up again
Wake Forest 21 Pittsburgh 17 – crazy 4th Q!…..7-7 heading into the final frame……Pitt takes 17-14 lead with 1:30 left…..Wake get winning TD pass from something called SANTINO MARUCCI with 7 seconds left to win the game….414-323 yd edge for Panthers and were +2 in t/o so a disappointment for Pitt
Virginia 31 North Carolina 27 – Cavaliers SHOCK the WORLD…….led 14-7 early and never went away, even game, 490-436 yd edge for UNC, Tar Heels allowed 228 rush yards and that was the real killer allowing Virginia to be balanced on offense…..Cavs travel to face the mighty Canes next week
Boston College 38 Georgia Tech 23 – 563-452 yd edge for Eagles and they had 308 rush yds and 255 pass yards…..Yellow Jackets led 23-17 heading into the 4Q and BC went nuts scoring 3 TDs and taking the game away…..BC QB T Castellanos 255 pass 128 rush……GT QB H King 204 pass, 150 rush
Big 12
Texas 31 Houston 24 – Longhorns led 21-CACK and had to hold on for their lives…..COOGS won the yardage battle 392-360….Check status of Texas QB Q Ewers who left in the 3rd Q and had a sling on his right arm on the sidelines….They should be able to handle BYU at home next week but then they’ve got Kansas St so hopefully Ewers will be good by then
Oklahoma 31 UCF 29 – The Knights gave Oklahoma all they could handle….Missed 2 pt conversion to tie the game…..442-397 yd edge for Sooners, UCF looked good with QB JR Plumlee back at the controls 248, 2-0 TD to INT but he didn’t do anything on the ground, Sooners with two road games up next (Kansas, Pokes)
Kansas St 41 TCU 3 – blowout city…..587-300 yd edge for Cats and they steamrolled for 343 yards on the ground….Houston up next for Kansas St and then the yuuuge road test at Texas
Baylor 32 Cincinnati 29 – Bears took the lead for good early 2nd Q and Cincinnati played catch-up the rest of the way….Much-needed win for Baylor but the run D got crushed again…..Bearcats 288 rush yds (6.7)
BYU 27 Texas Tech 14 – Misleading final……389-277 yd edge for Red Raiders playing with 3rd string QB but they were an impossible (-5) in t/o margin……COOGS got 14-0 jump early and that was that.
Oklahoma St 48 West Virginia 34 – even and entertaining game….Each team with 200+ rush and 200+ pass……491-475 yd edge for Pokes who’ve now won three in a row since the bye week
Big Ten
Michigan 49 Michigan St 0 – 477-182 yd edge, Michigan scored 6-yard rushing TD with 0:08 left because of course they did
Ohio St 20 Penn St 12 – Penn St still can’t find explosive plays…..Ohio St 365-240 yd edge, WR M Harrison Jr 11-162, TD, 20-6 late, Penn St TD with 29 seconds left
Rutgers 31 Indiana 14 – congrats to the FIGHTING SCHIANOs!…..6th win gets them to a bowl game…..sitting at 6-2…..315-279 yd edge for Scarlet Knights, also had blocked punt TD, 80 yard TD run in 4Q to put it away
Wisconsin 25 Illinois 21 – 379-323 yd edge for Badgers……Crazy 4th Q !….Illinois had a 21-7 lead heading into the final frame…Wisconsin 18-0 4Q including a TD with 27 seconds left to win the game…..Wisconsin backup QB B Locke didn’t look bad at all…..21/41 240Y, 2-0 TD to INT……BUCKY is back on top of the Big Ten West
Minnesota 12 Iowa 10 – Iowa almost pulled another IOWA…..down by two points with under 2 minutes left……brilliant punt return TD!! They did it again!!…uh oh what’s this…..penalty…..INVALID FAIR CATCH SIGNAL on the returner…..TD wiped out…..Somehow they get the ball back with another chance but throw an INT……239-127 yd edge for Gophers….yup Iowa had 127 yards and almost won the game
CORN 17 Northwestern 9 – it wasn’t pretty but CORN is winning games…..Pretty even game…..257-248 yd edge for Cats…..held Huskers to 85 pass yards
Conference USA
New Mexico St 28 UTEP 7 – Aggies keep on rolling, still only have one conference loss, 7-7 at half, 21-0 in 2nd half….439-304 yd edge for Aggies, QB Pavia 2 rush TD and 2 pass TD
FIU 33 Sam Houston 27 (2 OT) – another close call for Bearkats as they’re still looking for their first win…….Panthers tie it with last second FG and win in 2-OT…..410-331 yd edge for Sam Houston but now sit at 0-7….Panthers longest play from scrimmage was just 25Y
Liberty 42 MTSU 35 – very entertaining game….Largest lead for either squad was 7 points…..Liberty took lead for good early 4Q and nobody scored the rest of the way…..541-428 yd edge for Flames and they had an impossible 401 rush yards……MTSU threw for 332
Jacksonville St 20 Western Kentucky 17 – WKU led 17-7 in the 2nd Q and didn’t score the rest of the game…..Jax St last play FG to win the game……COCKS with big yardage edge in the win…..484-339, 262 rush, 222 pass
Independents
< see commentary in other conference sections >
MAC
Toledo 21 Miami Ohio 17 – 318-299 yard edge for Rockets, got up 21-3 at half and held on to win……Bad news for Miami Ohio and college football fans…..Miami Ohio star QB B Gabbert suffered a gruesome leg injury and is OFY
Northern Illinois 20 Eastern Michigan 13 – Tight game all the way….Huskies winning TD with a minute left….289-257 yd edge for Northern Illinois and they had the benefit of +2 in t/o margin
Ball St 24 Central Michigan 17 – legit win for the Cardinals…..344-260 yard edge…..led 10-3 at half and held FIRE UP CHIPS safe from there…..Ball St won the yardage battle 243-99
Ohio 20 Western Michigan 17 – 460-369 yd edge for Bobcats……Big game with Miami Ohio on deck and the Redhawks will be without their starting QB…..Broncos only have a pair of wins but have been playing decent football compared to expectations
Buffalo 24 Kent St 6 – 331-164 yd edge, Bulls 3-5 overall but 3-1 in MAC play and still have a longshot chance to win the division as they have games with Ohio and Miami Ohio to come
Bowling Green 41 Akron 14 – bit of a misleading final…..297-279 yd edge for Falcons but they were +4 in turnovers
Mountain West
Air Force 17 Navy 6 – Falcons’ starting QB when from “out for a while” to magically appearing in this game…..288-124 yd edge for Air Force and they only managed 137 on the ground….QB Z Larrier deadly as always 4-5 157 yards and the longest TD pass in AIR FORCE HISTORY…..Surprise that he played but good for him and Air Force!…..It’s time for the PULP FICTION GIMP to make his weekly appearance and torture Navy +10.5 backers including us…..Bring on the hot coals, the knitting needles, and the ball gag……Navy down 10-0 with the ball….4 minutes left…..looking good for the cover……just don’t throw it….uh oh what’s this?….Pick 6…..TD Air Force…..17-0…..The Navy dream is dead…..hey what’s this?…..Navy driving…..driving….driving….TD!! just 50 seconds left! Congrats Navy backers what a smart bet! All they have to do is kick the extra point and they cover +10.5 !!!…..uh oh, what’s this?….Navy is GOING for TWO….wat the wat??…..Yup, today’s football coaches love showing us how smart they are…..Why lose 17-7 when you can lose 17-6!…And the two point try fails…..+10.5 is a loser….game over, start the cars, thanks for coming! Don’t forget to get your DEATH JAB BOOSTER endorsed by Travis “I took saline solution” Kelce!
Nevada 6 San Diego St 0 – HAAAAAAAAAAAA <falls off chair>……This game actually happened….Nevada breaks a 16-game losing streak and shuts out the Aztecs on their home field…..Scoreless 2nd half….242-204 yd edge for Pack
San Jose St 42 Utah St 21 – 370-264 yd edge for San Jose St lots of points considering the total yards from both squads……Spartans and Aggies both sitting at 3-5 and still barely alive for a bowl spot
UNLV 25 Colorado St 23 – Colorado St pulls a COLORADO ST……Rams kick a 55 (!!!!!!!!!) yard FG with 44 seconds left to take the lead 23-22…..Lock it up…..Nope…..Short kickoff…..Prevent defense…..UNLV game-winning FG with 3 seconds left……491-373 yard edge for Rebels
New Mexico 42 Hawaii 21 – Bit of a misleading final…..429-403 yd edge for Lobos but Hawaii was (-4) in t/o margin…..New Mexico 227 rush 202 pass
PAC 12
Utah 34 USC 32 – Heartbreaking loss for the Trojans who battled back from 28-17 deficit to take a 32-31 lead with just under two minutes left……Utah does what Utah does and CRUSHES USC SOULS with a last play FG to win the game 34-32…..Washington is now the last undefeated team in conference play and there are four teams tied with one loss (USC/Oregon/Oregon St/Utah)
Oregon 38 Washington St 24 – Ducks finally got control of the game in the 2nd half…..541-495 yd edge….248 rush 293 pass…..Wash St THROW GAME got back on track with 438Y but needed late meaningless TD to get over 20 points….Oregon has tough game at Utah coming up next!
Washington 15 Arizona St 7 – Huskies escape with 8-point win…..Sun Devils had 341-288 (!) yard edge and were +3 in t/o margin…..sadly one of the SIMPLE JACK coaching moves of the week comes courtesy of Arizona St HC Kenny Dillingham…..Sun Devils up 7-6 midway thru 4Q…..4th and 3 inside the Huskies 20 yard line…..Chip shot FG to take a four-point lead…..and note….Washington hadn’t scored a TD to that point all game…..but hey….why be smart when you can use “analytics”…..They go for it…..PICK 6…..Huskies take it all the way to the HIZZY JIZZY for a TD…..and take the lead for good.
UCLA 42 Stanford 7 – 503-292 yd edge for Bruins…..221 rush 282 pass…..NOTE….QB change to Ethan Garbers….Had a good game….20/28 240Y, 2-0 TD to INT, tricky road game for UCLA at Arizona next
SEC
ROLL TIDE 34 Tennessee 20 – Tennessee up 20-7 (!) at the half…..TIDE win the 2nd half 27-CACK including a SCOOP AND SCORE with 7 min left…..404-358 yard edge for Vols and +1 in t/o, just couldn’t do anything in 2nd half
LSU 62 Army 0 – total destruction as expected…..570-193 yd edge, led 38-zip at half, bye week and then game at Alabama!
Ole Miss 28 Auburn 21 – 425-275 yd edge for Rebels, 14-14 at half, led by 14 late, outrushed Tigers 223-153
Mississippi St 7 WOO PIG 3 – a game right out of the 1950s!…..10 total points…..Miss St played with backup QB Mike Wright (85 pass yards, 80 rush)…..Held Hogs QB KJ Jefferson to 97 (!) pass yds at 3.1 YPA…..Wat the Wat?
Missouri 34 South Cackalacky 12 – 418-286 yd edge, up 24-3 at half, held COCKS QB Spencer Rattler in check (217, 0-1 TD to INT)
Sun Belt
James Madison 20 Marshall 9 – Another dominating performance for the Dukes…..Marshall TD came on a KR TD…..massive 405-169 yd edge for James Madison
South Alabama 55 Southern Miss 3 – blowout city, 647-149 yd edge for Jags, 287 rush, 360 pass
Old Dominion 28 Appalachian St 21 – UPSET TIME, BAYBEE…..409-379 yd edge for Monarchs and they got the game-winning TD with under a minute left…..After 7 games ODU has a better record (4-3) than App St (3-4)…..Congrats if you have that on your 2023 BINGO CARD!
Coastal Carolina 27 Arkansas St 17 – Pretty even game…..Coastal got the jump and led 17-3 at the half…..436-422 yd edge for the CHANTS and they keep their barely-alive East division hopes ALIVE
Georgia Southern 38 ULM 28 – another stingy effort from ULM…..31-28 late and Eagles wrap it up with a late Pick 6…..NOTE that Warhawks had a 429-417 yd edge……Both teams sloppy with four turnovers
Georgia St 20 Louisiana 17 – Almost a yuuuge comeback for the Cajuns…..Panthers get up 20-CACK…..Had their star QB out for a bit but he came back in the 2nd half but they couldn’t score…..Late red zone INT locks it up for Georgia St and they now sit at 6-1!
Betting review
“Official” plays
Navy +10.5 (L) – Tough one, but it’s gambling.
FAU +3 (L) – Led 10-7 then fell apart. UTSA was the much better team.
Small plays/Leans
9-2. Crazy town.
Win – Ohio St, ROLL TIDE, Sam Houston over, Oklahoma St, Rutgers, E Michigan under, Arizona St, Western Michigan, Georgia St
Lose – Wash St TT under, TCU,
More insane divergence this week.
Picking what we believe are the best of the bunch for “official” plays has worked out badly this season. 5-18-1 on the season for the “official picks”. Small plays/Leans are now 58-34 (63%). In 2022, the “official” plays were 23-23 and the small plays/leans were 114-90 (56%). We’ll continue to examine our process on a weekly basis and do a much deeper dive once the season is completed.
We’ll continue to send out our favorite picks of the week as “official plays” as we have always done (perceived line value, match-up edges, coaching, trends, etc.), but as mentioned a number of weeks back, we recommend that it’s best to risk the same amount on the small/plays leans as you do with the “official” picks. That’s what we’ve been doing so we suggest the same for everyone else.
As always, whatever you decide, play safe!
Season Win Total Club
UMass over 2 – One win in the bag, Merrimack is as close to an automatic win as you can get. Army and Liberty aren’t unbeatable but Connecticut to end the year is a very winnable game.
Virginia Tech over 5.5 – Definitely capable of winning three of their final five games but it will likely come down to the final game vs Virginia.
Colorado St over 4.5 – They should be able to bag two more wins. Last week was tough. 55-yard FG with 44 seconds left only to lose on a last-second UNLV FG. The Gambling Gods giveth, and they taketh away.
Kentucky over 7 – Sitting at 5-2. Seven wins is the most likely eventual outcome but who knows?
Tulane under 9.5 – One loss in the bag. Three tricky games left.
Akron over 3.5 – They’ve had some agonizing losses and lost their starting QB a while back. On life support.
UConn over 5 – Somebody call a priest.
Futures and Props Club
As always, we’ll keep you posted on any additions. We may have a few this week.
Sun Belt Champion – South Alabama at +330 and Georgia Southern at +1600 are live; Coastal Carolina +550 is on life support; Remember that James Madison is not eligible for winning the conference.
MAC Champion – Toledo at +180 and Miami Ohio at +803 are live. Toledo has almost locked up the West. Miami Ohio lost their star QB for the season this week and need to beat Ohio without him.
ACC Champion – Florida St at +175 appears to be a LOCK to make the title game. UNC at +1100 is live but they found a way to lose to Virginia this week.
PAC 12 Champion – USC at +200 is technically still breathing but we don’t like their chances.
CUSA Champion – Western Kentucky at +125 is in decent shape but they’ve got one conference loss. Liberty looks like a JUGGERNAUT tho.
SEC West Champion – LSU (+200) needs to keep winning and take down ROLL TIDE. Ole Miss at 20-1 is lingering in the background.
Mountain West Champion – Boise St probably needs to win out to get into the title game which is unlikely but not impossible.
AAC Champion – SMU at +320 looks good. FAU at +650 not so much after getting smoked by UTSA.
National Champion – Feel good about adding Oklahoma at 40-1 in late September. Georgia should be a MORTAL LOCK to make the playoff. Texas lost their starting QB this week (2-3 weeks?), USC isn’t gonna do it, Penn St needs to win out and get help.
Heisman Trophy winner – M Penix (+600) and J Daniels (+1129) are both in the top-three in current odds. Bo Nix (20-1) needs to lead the Ducks to a PAC 12 title and hope for the best.
Cheers and Enjoy Week 9!