Hey everyone.
Here’s the Week 9 Boxscore and Wagering review. FBS vs FBS MATCHUPS ONLY.
Let’s go!
Boxscore review:
AAC
UTSA 41 East Carolina 27 – the ARRRRRRRRR Pirates had the lead 17-14 after the first Q but couldn’t hang around….515-366 yard edge for UTSA…..395 passing yards
SMU 69 Tulsa 10 – HOLY SCHNIKEES…….SMU leads 52-3 at the half…..638-247 yard edge…..Tulsa wasn’t bad earlier in the year but their season has gone GLUG GLUG GLUG
Tulane 30 Rice 28 – Green Wave got up 27-7 but had to hold off HOOT HOOT’s rally in the 2nd half…..Misleading final when compared to the yardage totals (457-271 for Tulane)…..Each team with one turnover
Memphis 45 North Texas 42 – SOOOO CLOSE….Mean Green down 31-10 at half….scored 32 points in the second half and took a 42-38 lead…….Tigers game-winning 36-yard TD with just 10 seconds left to win the game…..600-591 yard edge for Memphis as they stay alive in the AAC chase
Florida Atlantic 38 Charlotte 16 – misleading final…..Owls with 349-325 yard edge, 49ers just have no offense….grind away and can’t finish……HOOT HOOT now 4-4, 49ers drop to 2-6
ACC
NC State 24 Clemson 17 – misleading final…..Clemson owns the yardage battle 364-202 but were (-2) in t/o margin including allowing a game-changing pick 6 in the 3Q…..Tigers now 4-4
Florida St 41 Wake Forest 16 – another convincing win for what appears to be the only good team in the ACC…..508-210 yard edge for Noles…..359 passing yards and 3 TD for J Travis
Notre Dame 58 Pittsburgh 7 – total slaughter…..won the 3Q 27-CACK…..535-255 yard edge for Irish and they forced 5 Pitt turnovers (+3 t/o margin overall)…..Irish have road game at Clemson up next
Georgia Tech 46 North Carolina 42 – WOW….Carolina loses in back-to-back weeks to Virginia and Georgia Tech….UNC led 21-7 and then 35-24 after 3Q…..Defense got shredded beyond belief in the 4Q…..Yellow Jackets won the yardage battle 635-577….Booked 348 rush yards and 287 thru the air
Miami 29 Virginia 26 (OT) – YOUR Miami Hurricanes didn’t look good at all but found a way to get the game into OT and win it….Misleading final as HOOS won the yardage battle 377-276 and had a 10-0 lead early 2Q…….Canes needed 48 yd FG with just over a minute left to force the extra session
Louisville 23 Duke 0 – impressive win for the Cards……RB J Jordan 21-163 and 2 TD……….351-202 yard edge for LUA-VUH….Duke QB R Leonard played but was ineffective
Virginia Tech 38 Syracuse 10 – Orange have lost last three games by a combined score of 119-20…..Hokies led 30-3 at half….528-137 yard edge for Hokies
Boston College 21 UConn 14 – BC dominated the stats with a 433-222 yard edge….Check status of BC QB T Castellanos who got banged up in the game and that didn’t help the Eagles’ ability to SCORE the FOOTBALL
Big 12
Texas 35 BYU 6 – dominating win behind backup QB M Murphy….Texas didn’t win the yardage battle by a wide margin (354-292) and they were just +1 in t/o margin so final score is a bit misleading even tho BYU realistically never had a shot…..Texas plays Kansas St next week which is a game with yuuuge Big 12 implications
Kansas 38 Oklahoma 33 – Sooners fell behind 14-0 early….took the lead….Kansas winning TD with just under a minute left!….Annnnndddd the goalposts are in a lake somewhere…………443-440 yard edge for Kansas…..Sooners rushed for 269 yards….Kansas 225….Each team turned it over 3 times, overall felt like an even game which is scary for Oklahoma’s long term prospects
Kansas St 41 Houston 0 – ya, it was just Houston, but Kansas St is really starting to cook…..394-208 yard edge…..Travel to Texas this week!
Iowa St 30 Baylor 18 – Cyclones hitting their stride…..400-306 yd edge….Won the rushing battle 162-67, each team with a pair of turnovers
Oklahoma St 45 Cincinnati 13 – what a coaching job by Mike Gundy….4th straight win….601-442 yard edge for Pokes…10-7 at half and then won the 2nd half 35-6…..BEDLAM game with Sooners up next
West Virginia 41 UCF 28 – Mountaineers dominated the rushing stats 286-189 and that won them the game……+3 in t/o margin didn’t hurt either…..463-450 yd edge for Knights…..UCF still looking for their first Big 12 win and have dropped five in a row
Big Ten
Ohio St 24 Wisconsin 10 – Badgers tied it at 10-10 early 3Q but you never got the sense Ohio St was in trouble…..407-259 yd edge, Buckeyes won rushing battle 181-94
Penn St 33 Indiana 24 – YIKES……24-24 tie game late 4Q, Hoosiers won the yardage battle 349-342, Penn St QB D Allar finally threw his first ever INT!….Indiana QB Brendan Sorsby played well 13/19 269….hit some big throws
Northwestern 33 Maryland 27 – WHOA, NELLIE…..Northwestern has found a way to win four games already……Nice home upset….391-364 yard edge for Terps but were (-2) in t/o margin…..Cats’ QB Brendan Sullivan clearly won the QB duel over BABY TUA
Minnesota 27 Michigan St 12 – Sparty got up 6-0 on a pair of FG….were only down 17-12 halfway thru the 4Q but once again couldn’t finish…..400-299 yd edge for Gophers and they had 200 yards rushing and 200 yards passing….Note Gophers’ RB Jordan Nubin rushed 40 times for 204 yards and 2 TD
CORN 31 Purdue 14 – CORN got up 24-CACK early 4Q…..That’s FIVE wins and just one more is needed for a bowl bid…..277-195 yard edge for CORN…..Sloppy game…..Purdue with 3 t/o, Huskers with 4…..Purdue QB Hudson Card held to just 3.1 YPA
Conference USA
Liberty 42 Western Kentucky 29 – tough home loss for the TOPPERS as Liberty now has total command of the conference…..492-484 yard edge for the Flames …..Tough one for UNDER backers as it was 21-10 after 3Q (total 61.5) and then things went FREAKY FREAKY in the 4Q with 40 points…….Liberty 323 rushing yards!
UTEP 37 Sam Houston 34 – The Bearkats led 21-10 late in the first half…..another tough loss….Still looking for their first win as an FBS program….MINER NATION wins it on a FG with 3 seconds left from your boy BUZZ FLABIANO….428-354 yd edge for UTEP
New Mexico St 27 Louisiana Tech 24 – 3rd straight close loss for Bulldogs…..New Mexico St has won four straight…..371-327 yard edge for Louisiana Tech but they were (-2) in t/o margin
Jacksonville St 41 FIU 16 – Those COCKS are on fire…..dominating road win and they’re now 7-2…..370-249 yard edge…..Note that FIU QB Grayson James got a lot of work and he actually looked good
Independents
UMass 21 Army 14 – Yes, guy….Minutemen finally win a close one…..got up 13-CACK early and held from there….362-352 yard edge for Army but they were (-3) in t/o margin and that was a killer….UMass won the rushing (!) battle 231–204
MAC
Western Michigan 45 Eastern Michigan 21 – Broncos continue to play good football, Eagles going GLUG GLUG GLUG…..421-317 yd edge, 252 rush yards for Broncos
Miami Ohio 30 Ohio 16 – yes, guy….Redhawks pull out a yuuuge road win and take the lead in the MAC East……did it with their backup QB….363-291 yd edge for Ohio but were (-1) in t/o and took some untimely penalties
Mountain West
Boise St 32 Wyoming 7 – total domination that was very surprising….443-112 yard edge, big game for Broncos next week as they travel to Fresno St
Air Force 30 Colorado St 13 – Another good performance from the Rams that ends in defeat….Won the yardage battle 339-293 in bad weather which hampered their THROW GAME…….13-13 at half…..Couldn’t get going in 2nd half on offense
Fresno St 31 UNLV 24 – Misleading final……Good effort from the Rebels…..They led 17-7 at half but Fresno scored 24 (!) points in the 3Q…….Bulldogs had starting QB M Keene back…..UNLV had a 424-312 yard edge but they turned the ball over four times (-2 in t/o margin)
San Jose St 35 Hawaii 0 – Hawaii program is a mess right now…..Spartans playing some good football….468-198 yard edge for San Jose St……217Y rush, 251 pass…..Held Hawaii THROW GAME to just 146 passing yards
Nevada 34 New Mexico 24 – AWOOOOO….The Wolfpack have emerged from the depths and won two in a row…..and they’ve got Hawaii up next……Got up 24-CACK at halftime and held on…..Lobos had 400-311 yard edge but were (-3) in t/o
PAC 12
USC 50 California 49 – Crazy game!…..Cal led 43-29 early 4Q…..USC stormed back with 3 TDs….Cal TD with a minute left to cut the score to 50-49…..decided to go for two points to take the lead……DENIED…..527-497 yd edge for Golden Bears but they were (-3) in t/o margin
Oregon 35 Utah 6 – Ultra-rare home loss for the Utes…..Ducks led 21-6 yd edge….Oregon 390-241 yd edge and won the rushing battle 142-99….Schedule sets up pretty well the rest of the way now that road games vs Wash and Utah are out of the way
Washington 42 Stanford 33 – Huskies got up 21-7 but Stanford hung around the rest of the game and cut the lead to 35-33 with 6:46 to play…..Cardinal won the yardage battle 495-460 and were +2 in t/o so they definitely could have won this game with another break or two…..QB A Daniels 367 yards passing for Stanford……Washington QB M Penix 369, 4 TD
Arizona 27 Oregon St 17 – Beavers took 17-13 lead early 4Q but the Wildcats countered with a pair of TDs to take a 27-17 lead….Oregon St cut it to 27-24 but did not recover the onside kick…..Even game…..407-363 yd edge for Oregon St
Arizona St 38 Washington St 27 – Sun Devils continue to be one of the more underrated teams out there…..COOGS have dropped four straight……509-403 yd edge for Arizona St…..235Y rush and 274Y pass
UCLA 28 Colorado 16 – domination by UCLA didn’t show up on scoreboard…..487-242 yard edge AND they were (-4) in turnovers…….Colorado late TD to make score look respectable……Bruins went with Ethan Garbers again at QB he did pretty well
SEC
Texas A&M 30 South Carolina 17 – Aggies with 21 point 2nd Q and that was basically it…..354-209 yard edge, held COCKS QB Spencer Rattler to 176 yards…..Aggies miss short FG late to torture Texas AM -14 and similar backers…..13 point win
Ole Miss 33 Vanderbilt 7 – Don’t look now but the FIGHTING KIFFINS are 7-1……26-zip at the half…..431-229 yd edge…..Pass rush continues to cook…..5 more sacks
Auburn 27 Mississippi St 13 – Tigers never threatened…..27-6 lead heading into 3Q…..416-345 yd edge for Auburn, Bulldogs went with backup QB Mike Wright once again, Auburn QB P Thorne 230 (!) yards passing which was the first time he’s gone over 150Y over an FBS team all season
Georgia 43 Florida 20 – Gators took an early 7-0 lead and then it was all Georgia……486-339 yd edge for Dawgs, 171 rush and 315 passing, Georgia has massive game with Missouri up next
Tennessee 33 Kentucky 27 – Vols led the game wire to wire…..Cats kept CLAWING back into it but it wasn’t meant to be…..Tennessee controlled the game with the rushing attack….253 yards…..Wildcats QB Devin Leary probably had his best game of the season 372, 2-0 TD to INT
Sun Belt
Appalachian St 48 Southern Miss 38 – Good effort from Southern Miss….led 24-14 at half….were only down by three midway thru 4Q…..588-571 yard edge for Golden Eagles and they had 301 yards on the ground…..App St 391 pass yards
Coastal Carolina 34 Marshall 6 – The CHANTS just won’t give up and their slim division hopes are still alive….Backup QB Jarrett Guest looked good…..289 pass, 3-1 TD to INT and 36 rush yards…….427-283 yard edge for Coastal Carolina forced five turnovers (+3 t/o margin)
James Madison 30 Old Dominion 27 – Surprising struggle for the JUGGERNAUT that is James Madison……Led 30-17 late 3Q but Monarchs chipped away…..Dukes move to 8-0……..463-415 yard edge, allowed 277 passing yards to suspect THROW GAME…..Dukes with tough road game at Georgia St up next
Georgia Southern 44 Georgia St 27 – big win for the Eagles as they now have the lead in the FUN BELT East (James Madison not eligible)…..452-447 yard edge for Georgia Southern…..Panthers dominated on the ground (290Y) but the Eagles countered with 334 thru the air…..Bit of a misleading final as the overall stats were pretty close
Louisiana 33 South Alabama 20 – nice road win for the Cajuns……up 17-CACK at the half and never looked back….BIG TIME misleading final as Jags won the yardage battle 498-348 but were (-5) (!) in turnovers……Jags have road game at Troy next and that doesn’t look promising the way they are playing right now
Troy 31 Texas St 13 – Troy keeps rolling along…..Bit of a misleading final…..437-420 yard edge for Bobcats but they were (-4) in t/o margin….Troy could only muster 28 rush yards (!)
Arkansas St 34 ULM 24 – Red Wolves book their 4th win!…..Even game….457-448 yard edge for Arkansas St…..17 point 4Q was the difference
Betting review
“Official” plays
North Texas +7 (W)…..closed at +6.5….down big early, rallied to take lead, lost with 10 seconds left
Arizona St +5.5 (W)…..closed at +4.5….in control most of the game after falling behind 7-0 early
Small plays/Leans
7-5.
Wins – Sam Houston over, Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, San Jose St, NC State, Troy, Western Michigan
Losses – Florida, Texas A&M, Colorado St, Boston College, South Alabama
Picking what we believe are the best of the bunch for “official” plays has worked out badly this season. 7-18-1 on the season for the “official picks”. Small plays/Leans are now 65-39 (62.5%). In 2022, the “official” plays were 23-23 and the small plays/leans were 114-90 (56%). We’ll continue to examine our process on a weekly basis and do a much deeper dive once the season is completed.
We’ll continue to send out our favorite picks of the week as “official plays” as we have always done (perceived line value, match-up edges, coaching, trends, etc.), but as mentioned a number of weeks back, we recommend that it’s best to risk the same amount on the small/plays leans as you do with the “official” picks. That’s what we’ve been doing so we suggest the same for everyone else.
As always, whatever you decide, play safe!
Season Win Total Club
UMass over 2 – The Minutemen finally pulled out a close one as they beat Army for their second win of the season. Merrimack is up next and hopefully they can beat an FCS team and get to three wins.
Virginia Tech over 5.5 – They’re playing well right now and got win number four vs Syracuse. We still think it’s gonna come down to the season finale vs Virginia.
Colorado St over 4.5 – They should be able to bag two more wins. They’ve played one bad game all season and need to win two of their final four games. The schedule finishes with three very beatable opponents.
Kentucky over 7 – Sitting at 5-3. They’ve gotta snap out of their funk this week vs a struggling Mississippi St squad.
Tulane under 9.5 – One loss in the bag. They haven’t looked great but they just win, baby.
Akron over 3.5 – On life support.
UConn over 5 – Somebody call a priest.
Futures and Props Club
As always, we’ll keep you posted on any additions. We may have a few this week.
Sun Belt Champion – Georgia Southern at +1600 leads the East division. South Alabama at +330 and Coastal Carolina at +550 are barely alive. Remember that James Madison is not eligible to win the conference.
MAC Champion – Toledo at +180 and Miami Ohio at +803 are very live. The Rockets have pretty much sewn up the West division and Miami Ohio just upset Ohio to take the lead in the East division.
ACC Champion – Florida St at +175 appears to be a LOCK to make the title game.
PAC 12 Champion – USC at +200 doesn’t look great as they’ve still gotta face Washington and Oregon.
CUSA Champion – Western Kentucky at +125 is still alive but they need to run the table to get into the title game.
SEC West Champion – LSU at +200 needs to take down ROLL TIDE on Saturday. Ole Miss at 20-1 is lingering in the background but they’ve still gotta play Georgia.
Mountain West Champion – Boise St looked improved off the bye this week but they probably need to win out to make the title game.
AAC Champion – SMU at +320 is in fine shape to reach the AAC Championship Game.
National Champion – Georgia looks like the best team in the country. Texas lost their starting QB for a few weeks but are capable of winning the rest of their games.
Heisman Trophy winner – M Penix (+600), J Daniels (+1129), and Bo Nix (+2000) are all currently in the top-four in offshore markets with the other guy being JJ McCarthy which is hilarious but we’ll see what happens.
Cheers and Enjoy Week 10!