Hey everyone.
Here’s the Week 12 Boxscore and Wagering review. FBS vs FBS MATCHUPS ONLY.
Let’s go!
Boxscore review:
AAC
UTSA 49 USF 21 – Roadrunners keep rolling and ripping teams apart…..643-427 yard edge, QB Frank Harris 411 yards 3 TD 0 INT, yuuuge game with Tulane on deck
SMU 38 Memphis 34 – one of the most entertaining games of the day….SMU Preston Stone had a great 2nd half….Memphis QB Seth Henigan was really good throughout the game (402 2 TD 0 INT)…..Memphis D just couldn’t get stops in the 2nd half….464-444 yard edge for Tigers
Tulane 24 FAU 8 – 336-234 yard edge, led 24-CACK, massive game with UTSA next week!
Navy 10 East Carolina 0 – 3rd shutout of the year for Navy and they sit at 5-5….276-189 yard edge
North Texas 35 Tulsa 28 – Mean Green haven’t quit despite having 7 losses…..593-434 yard edge….299 rush 294 pass
UAB 34 Temple 24 – Tie game halfway thru the 4Q and Blazers get the final 10 points….505-378 yard edge for Blazers, neither team will be participating in bowl season….UAB wins rushing battle 259-55….Much needed win for your boy Trent Dilfer
Rice 28 Charlotte 7 – much needed win for Rice…..5th win and will go for the 6th one next week vs a bad FAU team….380-158 yard edge for HOOT HOOT…..Charlotte was +2 in t/o margin….Rice played with backup QB AJ Padgett who was MEH but did enough
ACC
Clemson 31 North Carolina 20 – Tar Heels got up 7-0 and Clemson won the middle quarters 28-7….466-457 yd edge for Clemson and were +1 in t/ margin, UNC outrushed Clemson 248-247 (!)
Pittsburgh 24 Boston College 16 – feisty effort from Pitt who many thought had quit on the season…..404-325 yard edge and +2 in t/o margin for the Panthers
Louisville 38 Miami 31 – another game that YOUR Hurricanes could have easily won….Cards take the lead with 4 min left….Miami was stopped on 4th and goal late, got ball back, caught Hail Mary short of goal line…..486-470 yard edge for Miami, QB Tyler Van Dyke had his best game in a while….327 passing yards TD, 0 INT
NC State 35 Virginia Tech 28 – Hokies score 28 points vs a really good D and couldn’t stop a brutal offense…..Wolfpack win never really in doubt up 35-14…..VT with two late scores made the score look respectable…..408-349 yd edge for NC State and +1 in t/o margin, won the rushing battle 188-124
Virginia 30 Duke 27 – 10-10 game at the half…..Virginia got up 24-10 and held from there…..448-429 yd edge for HOOS and they were +2 in t/o margin
Notre Dame 45 Wake Forest 7 – Blowout city, 450-232 yard edge, Sam Hartman has a big day vs his former team….277 yards and 4 TD passes 0 INT
Georgia Tech 31 Syracuse 22 – Yellow Jackets get 6th win for bowl bid….Orange will need a win vs Wake Forest next week to turn the trick…..344-259 yd edge for Georgia Tech….Syracuse went with something called a Dan Villari at QB….14/14 but just 59 (!) passing yards
Big 12
Texas 26 Iowa St 16 – not a sexy win but it’s never easy to win in Ames….404-332 yard edge for Horns, allowed Cyclones QB Rocco Becht to throw for 323 yards…..Texas QB Quinn Ewers 281, 2 TD
Oklahoma 31 BYU 24 – questionable effort from the Sooners….BYU was looking to take the lead in the 3Q and Oklahoma came up with a 100-yard pick six….390-369 yd edge for BYU (!) and the Cougars won the rushing battle 217-144….Note that starting QB Dillon Gabriel got hurt late in the first half…..Check status for this week’s game (TCU)
Kansas St 31 Kansas 27 – disappointing game for Kansas St playing the Jayhawks’ 3rd string QB but they gutted out a win despite being down by 11 at one point….396-331 yard edge for Jayhawks but were (-2) in t/o margin….Kansas St got the ball with about 5 minutes left and were able to run out the clock
TCU 42 Baylor 17 – Bears scored first and then went GLUG GLUG GLUG…..531-347 yard edge for TCU including 431 thru the air with your boy Josh HOOVER (412, 2 TD)
Texas Tech 24 UCF 23 – Red Raiders are going to a bowl game…..UCF will have to beat Houston next week to earn a their spot…..UCF appeared to tie the game with 5 min left but PAT was blocked….486-446 yd edge for Knights
Oklahoma St 43 Houston 30 – COOGS got the jump 23-9 but Pokes roared back and dominated the 2nd half…..501-393 yard edge, 153 rush 348 pass, the FIGHTING GUNDYS clinch a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game with a win over BYU next week
West By God Virginia 42 Cincinnati 21 – Mountaineers led 28-7 at the half….634-332 yard edge including an impossible 424 (!) rushing yards (9.2 YPC)
Big Ten
Michigan 31 Maryland 24 – Wolverines jumped out to a 23-3 lead and Maryland cut it to 23-17 in the 3Q……then 29-24 late in the 3Q…..291-262 yd edge for Michigan and were +2 in t/o margin
Ohio St 37 Minnesota 3 – total domination, 434-159 yd edge, Buckeyes have won the L2G by a combined score of 75-6
Penn St 27 Rutgers 6 – another JAMES FRANKLIN SPECIAL…..laying -19.5 the Nittany Lions score a TD with 3 min left to extend the lead from 20-6 to 27-6….cover that spread, yo…..322-229 yd edge for Penn St and +2 in t/o
Michigan St 24 Indiana 21 – Hoosiers took the lead 21-17 with 4 min left but SPARTY came up with a clutch game-winning drive and won the game with a minute left…..402-317 yd edge and +1 in t/o margin for Indiana in a game they easily could have won
Wisconsin 24 CORN 17 (OT) – HEARTBREAK HOTEL for the Huskers as they blew another chance to get to bowl eligibility…..Badgers win in OT and book their 6th win so they’ll be bowling…..364-316 yd edge for CORN, QB Chubba Purdy had 169 passing yards, 105 rushing yards and a TD
Iowa 15 Illinois 13 – IOWA keeps doing IOWA things!…..They have zero offense but NINE wins and another Big Ten West title….281-280 yard edge for Hawkeyes, Illinois needs to win next week vs Northwestern to make a bowl game
Northwestern 23 Purdue 15 – Yes, guy….Northwestern achieves bowl eligibility!….Purdue outgained the Cats 443-329 but were (-3) in t/o margin, NW went with Ben Bryant at QB (230 yards 1-1 TD to INT)
Conference USA
WKU 28 Sam Houston 23 – It wasn’t pretty but the TOPPERS got their sixth win and are off to a bowl game….Sam Houston had the lead a few times including 23-21 after 3Q….465-357 yd edge for WKU…..they turned it over 5 times (-2 in t/o margin)
MTSU 34 UTEP 30 – neither team is heading to a bowl game but both squads showed up and played a good game…..UTEP cut the lead to 34-30 with 14 min left but there was no more scoring in the game…….453-427 yard edge for UTEP but they were (-2) in t/o margin
Liberty 49 UMass 25 – The Flames are 11-0 and they keep CRUSHING and KILLING……..They got a 28-CACK lead in the 2Q and that was the ball game…..49-10 4th Q….As usual UMass did not quit and scored the last two TDs of the game….549-391 yard edge for Flames and another yuuuge day on the ground…..324 rush yards
Jacksonville St 56 Louisiana Tech 17 – the Bulldogs finish their season with a massive THUD….8th win for the COCKS and they had a 628-269 yard edge…..How many rushing yards you ask?…..522 (!) on 60 carries (8.7 YPC)
Independents
< see comments in other conference sections >
MAC
Toledo 32 Bowling Green 31 – Falcons almost pulled the upset but Rockets win it on a 59-yard TD pass with just under 2 min left…..Toledo had already clinched the West so it was a bit of a sleepy spot….415-404 yd edge for Toledo
Northern Illinois 24 Western Michigan – great performance from the defense as they shut down a Western Michigan offense that had been playing well as of late….386-206 yard edge for NIU….Huskies qualify for a bowl game if they can take care of the turd that is Kent St next week
Eastern Michigan 30 Akron 27 – ANOTHER OT loss for Akron (three of them)…..This one in 2 OT…..each team with 315 yards, neither team had a turnover, Eagles have five wins and will need to beat Buffalo next week to qualify for a bowl game
Ohio 34 Central Michigan 20 – Ohio’s offense looked better but we suppose it WAS against Central Michigan….377-319 yard edge for Ohio and +2 in t/o margin
Ball St 34 Kent St 3 – total domination, 388-97 total yardage edge for Cardinals
Miami Ohio 23 Buffalo 10 – jumped out 10-0 and the defense did the rest….Redhawks clinch the MAC East!….326-278 yard edge for Miami Ohio
Mountain West
Boise St 45 Utah St 10 – Broncos roll in first game after firing HC Andy Avalos…..Utah St got the jump 10-zip and then Boise rattled off 45 points in a row including a whopping 31 in the 2Q….Boise with 352 rush yards and won the total yardage battle 445-373 (just 93 pass yards)…..Bit of a misleading final as Utah St was (-4) in t/o margin
UNLV 31 Air Force 27 – Yes, guy….Rebels down 27-14 at the half and shutout Air Force 17-0 in the final two quarters….465-404 yard edge….Now lead the Mountain West and are in the driver’s seat to play in the title game!….AF starting QB Z Larrier DNP
San Jose St 24 San Diego St 13 – Spartans win fifth straight game and clinch a bowl bid….Need to beat UNLV next week and get help to make title game…..355-300 yard edge and +1 in t/o margin for SJ St
Wyoming 42 Hawaii 9 – Pokes led 35-CACK at the half….472-345 yd edge, weird stat….Hawaii held the ball for over 36 min
New Mexico 25 Fresno 17 – UPSET CITY, yo….Fresno plays themselves out of MW contention losing as 23-point favs….Lobos with massive 528-230 yd edge including 345 yards rushing
Colorado St 30 Nevada 20 – Rams just need to beat Hawaii on the road next week to clinch a bowl bid…..414-327 yd edge for Colorado St
PAC 12
UCLA 38 USC 20 – star QB Caleb Williams’ final game was a bit of a TURD…..387-354 yd edge for Trojans but were (-3) in t/o margin…..Bruins QB Ethan Garbers was ok…..155 yards and 3 TD 0 INT….UCLA won the rushing battle 199-3 (!)
Arizona 42 Utah 18 – WHOA, NELLIE….Cats blowout mighty Utah and win their 5th straight game….Got up 28-CACK early 2nd Q and that was it…..443-438 yd edge for Arizona, Utes were (-2) in t/o margin
Oregon 49 Arizona St 13 – BO NIX SEASON IS IN FULL EFFECT…..6 TD passes…..603-316 yd edge for Ducks
Washington 22 Oregon St 20 – another entertaining game…..Gutsy win for the Huskies…..difference ends up being a first half safety when the rain was pretty bad causing a wild snap on a punt…..Oregon St shut out Washington in the 2nd half but couldn’t come all the way back from being down 22-10 at the half….317-272 yard edge for Beavers but were (-2) in t/o margin
Washington St 56 Colorado 14 – 447-255 yard edge for Washington St….Buffs continue their slide into the ABYSS
California 27 Stanford 15 – never in doubt, 455-289 yard edge for Cal, need win at UCLA next week to get to a bowl game
SEC
LSU 56 Georgia St 14 – Tigers with 582-365 yd edge, Another massive game for QB Jayden Daniels!…..413 yards passing, 6 TD, 0 INT, 96 rush yards, 2 TD
Ole Miss 35 ULM 3 – 498-258 yd edge for Rebels…..just 7-3 at half and then blew them out in the 2nd half…..Good news for Ole Miss….QB Jaxson Dart looked healthy and played well after taking bit hit vs Georgia
WOO PIG 44 FIU 20 – Panthers led 13-7 early and then WOO PIG won the 2nd Q 24-zip…..510-341 yd edge
New Mexico 31 Auburn 10 – WAT the WAT?….The Aggies take down an SEC opponent for the first time in school history!…..and they WHOPPED DAT AZZ…..QB Diego Pavia did indeed play for the Aggies……414-213 yd edge for New Mexico St, held Auburn to 65 rushing yards…..Auburn paid New Mexico St $1.8 million for what turned out to be a nasty beating
Mississippi St 41 Southern Miss 20 – Bulldogs got off to a bit of a slow start then pulled away in their first game after firing HC Zach Arnett….Will Rogers was back at QB for Mississippi St…..12/27 144 yards 2-0 TD to INT…..EGG BOWL up next vs Ole Miss
Georgia 38 Tennessee 10 – Vols scored on the first play (!) of the game and that ended up being their only TD…..472-277 yd edge for Bulldogs, another great game for QB Carson Beck
South Carolina 17 Kentucky 14 – another disappointing result for the Cats as they gave the game away with turnovers….(-3) in that regard…..293-257 yard edge but COCKS come up with winning TD in the 4Q
Missouri 33 Florida 31 – Tigers win the game with FG in final seconds……Very even and exciting game……508-500 yd edge for Missouri….Gators rushed for 261 yards…..Note that Florida QB Graham Mertz suffered a collarbone injury in the 3Q and it didn’t look good
Sun Belt
Appalachian St 26 James Madison 23 (OT) – DOWN GOES FRAZIER!…..Dukes lose their first game of the year…..They were down by 8 late in the game but got a TD and 2-point conversion to force OT….366-350 yard edge for Mountaineers….and they’re still alive in the Sun Belt East!
South Alabama 28 Marshall 0 – total beatdown and the Jags achieve bowl eligibility…..Marshall needs a win next week vs Arkansas St to punch their ticket…..393-201 yard edge for Jags and +2 in t/o margin
Army 28 Coastal Carolina 21 – Army had 365 total yards (CC – 384) and all of them were on the ground!…0/2 passing….Not a conference game so the CHANTS still win the East division if they can beat James Madison next week
Old Dominion 20 Georgia Southern 17 – Monarchs get the win on a last play FG!…..They can make a bowl game with a win over Georgia St next week….354-346 yd edge for Georgia Southern who’ve now lost three consecutive games
Troy 31 Louisiana 24 – close game all the way….Troy broke a 24-24 tie with 4 min left to bag the win…..367-348 yd edge for Troy….Not their best game but they had already clinched the West
Arkansas St 77 Texas St 31 – YIKES!….Red Wolves allowed 73 in their season opener vs Oklahoma and they put up 77 this week vs Texas St…..And they’re off to a bowl game…..Arkansas St had FOUR (!!!) non-offensive TDs in the 2nd half…..so obviously a misleading final…..TWO pick sixes, fumble return TD, KO return TD…..Bobcats won the yardage battle 539-487
Betting review
Big plays
Georgia -10 (W)
Clemson -7 (W)
Leans
4-4
Win – North Texas, Appalachian St, Oklahoma St, Arizona
Lose – Western Michigan, Virginia Tech, Oregon St, Kansas St
Picking what we believe are the best of the bunch for “official” plays has worked out badly this season. 11-19-2 on the season for the “official picks”. Small plays/Leans are now 78-52 (60%). In 2022, the “official” plays were 23-23 and the small plays/leans were 114-90 (56%). We’ll continue to examine our process on a weekly basis and do a much deeper dive once the season is completed.
We’ll continue to send out our favorite picks of the week as “official plays” as we have always done (perceived line value, match-up edges, coaching, trends, etc.), but as mentioned a number of weeks back, we recommend that it’s best to risk the same amount on the small/plays leans as you do with the “official” picks. That’s what we’ve been doing so we suggest the same for everyone else.
ML Underdog Club
3/5 again in the ML Underdog post including Appalachian St.
Season Win Total Club
UMass over 2 – Winner.
Colorado St over 4.5 – Winner
Virginia Tech over 5.5 – Need to take down Virginia in their final game to get to six wins.
Kentucky over 7 – Need to beat LUA-VUH in their final game to get a push. It’s a rivalry game BUT note that LUA-VUH has the ACC Championship Game in two weeks so it’s hard to imagine they’ll empty the tank vs Kentucky. And they have 0.00% chance of making the CFP.
Tulane under 9.5 – Ten wins. Slithered past several crappy opponents but you gotta tip your cap to the Green Wave.
Akron over 3.5 – Lost their 3rd OT game of the year on Saturday. Toast.
UConn over 5 – This ticket can be used as a beer coaster or toilet paper.
Futures and Props Club
Sun Belt Champion – Coastal Carolina at (+550) leads the East division thanks to the tiebreaker vs Appalachian St. James Madison is not eligible to win the conference.
MAC Champion – Toledo at +180 has won the West. Miami Ohio at +803 has won the East.
ACC Champion – Florida St at +175 is a LOCK to make the title game. They’ll have to win it with their back-up QB as Jordan Travis is out for the season.
PAC 12 Champion – USC is a dead TICKEE TICKEE.
CUSA Champion – Ditto for WKU.
SEC West Champion – We didn’t have ROLL TIDE.
Mountain West Champion – Boise St is somehow still alive at +200 and can clinch a spot in the title game with a win over Air Force this week. San Jose St is on life support (+3000) and need a win and some help to get to the Mountain West dance.
AAC Champion – SMU at +320 needs to beat Navy next week to clinch a spot in the AAC Championship Game. If they lose it’s still possible but there’s a tiebreaker that’s based on rankings that might not go in their favor.
National Champion – Georgia looks like the best team in the country. Texas (+2500) is still alive. Oregon at +1400 needs to win the PAC 12 and go from there.
Heisman Trophy winner – Jayden Daniels (+1129) and Bo Nix (+2000) are currently the top-two favorites in offshore markets. Michael Penix (+600) is the third choice. Looks pretty good, yo.
CHEERS and ENJOY WEEK 13!