Hey everyone.
Here are our favorite 2024 Futures and Props selections.
Play one. Play them all. Fade them all. There’s no bad decision!
Season win total investments are listed on their own blog post.
Good luck.
We won’t add anything else before the season starts. NOTE however that we’ll almost certainty add plays/hedging as per usual during the season and we’ll keep you posted in multiple places on the site so you don’t miss a play.
UPDATE NOV 29:
Added: ACC futures hedge (See below)
Added: Big 12 futures hedge (See below)
Can’t do anything with the MAC. Let’s see if Miami Ohio can beat Bowling Green and go from there.
UPDATE DEC 4:
Added: ACC futures hedge (See below)
UPDATE DEC 6:
Added: Big Ten futures hedge (See below)
Added: Big 12 futures hedge (See below)
We’re letting the MAC Championship future on Miami Ohio ride. (See below)
That’s it for hedging activities until the PLAYOFFS!
Handy Legend:
- MAC Championship (posted Aug 2)
- ACC Championship (posted Aug 4)
- CUSA Championship (posted Aug 9)
- Big Ten Championship (posted Aug 9)
- Mountain West Championship (posted Aug 11)
- Sun Belt Championship (posted Aug 12)
- SEC Championship (posted Aug 13)
- Big 12 Championship (posted Aug 14)
- AAC Championship (posted Aug 17)
- National Championship (posted Aug 17)
- Heisman Trophy (posted Aug 17)
We’ll list the best five prices from eight major books that we utilize for our investments to give you an idea of what a reasonable market range is at the time of posting. It’s critically important to SHOP AROUND when it comes to futures. Don’t forget to check out each of our 134 AWARD-WINNING team previews for more analysis.
Happy hunting!
Market
MAC Championship (posted Aug 2)
Miami Ohio +240 (0.60 units to win 1.44 units) (+240, +230, +230, +230, +225)
Western Michigan +650 (0.40 units to win 2.60 units) (+650, +650, +650, +600, +600)
We’re letting the Miami Ohio TICKEE TICKEE ride. If they win we net +1.04. If they lose, it’s -1.00. Usually things work out for us when we let it ride, sometimes it doesn’t. That’s part of the game.
Feel free to shave some exposure off in your portfolio if that’s what you want to do.
MEGALOCKS SAYS:
Our DEEP MAC INSIDERS believe that there’s a 95% chance that one of five teams wins the conference…. Miami Ohio is the most talented and balanced team in the conference but they’ll need QB Brett Gabbert to stay healthy for the majority of the season (not a small ask)…..The Redhawks proved they could win the MAC without him in 2023 but we don’t think they can pull that rabbit out of the hat two years in a row……Toledo gets Miami Ohio at home but they’ve lost a ton of talent from last year’s squad and they only get to play one of the three projected bottom feeders (at Akron)……Their price is a bit short so we’ll take a pass…..Western Michigan gets the nod from the 2nd tier squads as they’ve got the easiest MAC schedule of all the contenders….They miss Miami Ohio and Toledo and get to play all three bottom feeders (at Ball St, Akron, Kent St)…..They’ve got a the most helpful path to make the title game and have a very experienced roster…..The Broncos are a good investment if you’re looking for theoretical hedging equity (similar concept to Louisville’s schedule in the ACC last season)…..Bowling Green is another solid choice to win the MAC in this price range….The Falcons get all three MAC scrubs but they’ve also gotta face all four of the other prime contenders….Our preliminary power ratings have the Falcons slightly ahead of the Broncos but even after considering the higher odds we decided to roll with Western Michigan who starts the MAC campaign with four turds on the assignment list…..Northern Illinois is also rated slightly higher than the Broncos in our power ratings but they’ve got the toughest conference schedule of the five contenders and we’re not sure what they have at QB…..The other teams….Ohio is in rebuild mode….Central Michigan has a sketchy roster…..Eastern Michigan and Buffalo don’t have enough talent…..Ball St, Kent St, and Akron are yuuuge longshots.
Fair Odds Estimate
Miami Ohio 33.3% (+200)
Western Michigan 16.7% (+500)
Toledo 16.7% (+500)
Bowling Green 15.4% (+550)
Northern Illinois 13.3% (+650)
Field 4.6% (+2000 or so)
Market
ACC Championship (posted Aug 4)
Miami +450 (0.6 units to win 2.70 units) (+450, +440, +425, +425, +400)
Virginia Tech +1000 (0.25 units to win 2.50 units) (+1000, +1000, +1000, +750, +750)
SMU +2000 (0.15 units to win 3.00 units) (+2000, +1800, +1600, +1500, +1400)
ADDED NOV 29:
Nov 30 game – Syracuse ML +325 vs Miami (0.30 units to win 0.98 units). +325 is consensus. You can find a bit better.
ADDED DEC 4:
ACC Championship Game – Clemson ML +115. 1.00 units to win 1.15 units. +115 is the clear consensus.
MEGALOCKS SAYS:
Miami is likely the most talented team in the conference on paper and whilst the word on NARRATIVE STREET implies that they can’t win anything with HC Mario Cristobal doing his best SIMPLE JACK impersonation on gameday this is the best roster he’s had by a country mile and last time we checked, talent is important……They’re the 3rd choice in the betting so we’ll roll with the perceived value….Clemson has a good shot to get to the dance but we’re not crazy about the WR situation/RB depth and can they win the ACC with Cade Klubnik?…..The Tigers have tough road games at Florida St and Virginia Tech but they’re a legit threat….Florida St is the betting favorite but they lost a boatload of players to the NFL and have a downgrade at QB…..They’re obviously talented enough to win the ACC but we don’t like the price….Virginia Tech isn’t too far behind the top-three in our power ratings and they’ve got a decent path in conference play after the opening tilt at Miami……If they can find a way to SHOCK the WORLD vs the Hurricanes, look out BAY-BEE……We’re lower than market on NC State as we’re not sure about QB Grayson McCall’s ability to lead the Pack to the promised land after spending all his time in the Sun Belt and they’ll certainly miss all-Galaxy LB Payton Wilson…..LUA-VUH has a lot of new faces on offense and a tougher ACC schedule this year…..No value in the +600 range……SMU has a dream conference schedule and a loaded roster that should help them contend in year one in the ACC….Hard to pass up those SPICY odds for a small taster……North Carolina and Syracuse are the most interesting teams in the BOMB category for those that wanna go a bit deeper into the market.
Fair Odds Estimate
Miami 25% (+300)
Clemson 20% (+400)
Florida St 20% (+400)
Virginia Tech 11.8% (+750)
SMU 7.1% (+1300)
NC State 7.1% (+1300)
Louisville 7.1% (+1300)
Field 1.9% (+5000 or so)
Market
CUSA Championship (posted Aug 9)
MEGALOCKS SAYS:
The Liberty Flames are the overwhelming and deserving favorite (-200 range) and those odds are too short for our liking…..The market gives them a 67% shot of winning CUSA and that’s in line with what we forecast (70%)…..Western Kentucky and Jacksonville St are the clear second choices in the market (both around +500) and it looks like a coin flip in terms of which of those two teams will face the Flames in the title game…..For degenerates looking for bombs you might consider Sam Houston (+2000 or so), UTEP (+5000 or so), and FIU (+10000 or so)…..We’re gonna take a pass on the CUSA Championship futures for now.
Market
Big Ten Championship (posted Aug 9)
Oregon +250 (1.00 units to win 2.50 units) (+250, +225, +225, +200, +200)
ADDED DEC 6:
Dec 7 game – Penn St ML +147. 1.00 units to win 1.47 units. +147 is consensus. You can find a few points better quite easily.
MEGALOCKS SAYS:
Oregon is absolutely LOADED on both sides of the football and the schedule shapes up very nicely….Can Dan Lanning finally get this team over the hump?…..Ohio St is also supremely talented but we’ll have to see how the passing game works with new QB Will Howard and a less experienced WR/TE corps…..The Buckeyes battle Oregon in Eugene and also have to play Penn St on the road…..Penn St has the best schedule of the major players but a few roster holes that make us a bit leery…..And we don’t need to remind you about HC James Franklin’s struggles in big games since his arrival back in 2014….Michigan has a sketchy QB situation to say the least but the defense is still elite…..They’re not on the same level as Oregon and Ohio St this year……Iowa has a great defense (again) and an easy Big Ten schedule (again) but they’re another team with a major question mark at QB…..Oh, and they’ve also gotta travel to face Ohio St…..They’ll lose that game which leaves no margin for error…..USC is gonna be potent on offense but are they good enough on defense and in the trenches?
Fair Odds Estimate
Oregon 33.3% (+200)
Ohio St 33.3% (+200)
Penn St 12.5% (+700)
Michigan 11.1% (+800)
USC 3.8% (+2500)
Iowa 3.8% (+2500)
Field 2.2% (+5000 or so)
Market
Mountain West Championship (posted Aug 11)
MEGALOCKS SAYS:
Boise St is the clear favorite to win the conference as they’re loaded on both sides of the football and are a legitimate threat to grab a spot in the expanded college football playoff…..The Broncos are our PICK to CLICK but the price is a bit steep for our liking (-125 range)…..Fresno St is a talented squad and they avoid Boise St but have to travel to face UNLV and Air Force….Their chances took a hit with the surprise retirement of HC Jeff Tedford and their price doesn’t interest us (+400 range)….UNLV is probably the most interesting team to take a stab with (+650 range) as they’ve got the most raw talent of any team in the conference other than Boise St…..Can they make a run with a pair of QBs from the FCS ranks?….Their fate will likely be decided by the end of October as they host the Broncos and Bulldogs before the calendar turns to November…..Air Force is undergoing a major reloading project and might be a year away from contending…..Wyoming is the most logical BOMB (+1800 range) as they’re very scrappy and get Boise St at home whilst avoiding Fresno St and UNLV…….Taking a pass on the Mountain West Championship market for now as the Broncos look mighty good on paper.
Market
Sun Belt Championship (posted Aug 12)
MEGALOCKS SAYS:
The FUN BELT is the only conference in the country that still has a divisional format and it appears we’ll have a chalky outcome on both sides…..Appalachian St is the most talented team in the East by a decent margin with an offense that just won’t quit….Their road games are a bit tricky (Marshall, Louisiana, Coastal Carolina) but we’re fairly certain that the Nov 23 home game vs James Madison will decide the division…..+275ish isn’t tempting enough for us, particularly when you have a BURGEONING JUGGERNAUT like Texas St in the other half of the Sun Belt…..We favor the Bobcats by a wide margin on their side of the conference and their schedule is buttery soft…..+350ish is a bit tempting but they’ll almost certainly have to deal with Appalachian St in December to GIT R DONE…..James Madison is undergoing a major rebuild with a new HC but we suppose they could SHOCK the WORLD and upset Appalachian St late in the season…..Louisiana is the third choice in the betting (+550 or so) but they lost their best QB (in our opinion) and draw road games with the Mountaineers and Bobcats….Arkansas St has an emerging star at QB and one of the most experienced teams in the conference so they might be worth a look for longshot players (+1600 or so)…..We’re gonna pass on the Sun Belt futures for now as we agree the top-two choices.
Market
SEC Championship (posted Aug 13)
ROLL TIDE +750 (0.40 units to win 3.00 units) (+750, +750, +700, +700, +650)
Ole Miss +800 (0.4 units to win 3.20 units) (+800, +800, +700, +700, +700)
Texas A&M +2000 (0.2 units to win 4.00 units) (+2000, +1500, +1500, +1400, +1200)
MEGALOCKS SAYS:
Georgia is the best team in the country but they also happen to reside in the toughest conference….Also note that they’ve got road games at ROLL TIDE, Ole Miss, and Texas…..They’re our top choice to win but the price is a bit short…..Texas has a very short price (+300 or so) and they’ve got a lot of new faces at WR/TE and are weaker at DT….Be advised that they’ve already lost two of their top-five RBs for the season (Baxter, Clark – waiting on confirmation as we approach press time)….ROLL TIDE picked up ace HC Kalen Deboer to replace Nick Saban and they’re set at QB, defense, and special teams…..The schedule is tough but the price is fair…..Ole Miss has a star QB and one of the most talented rosters in the country….Their toughest game is at home (Georgia) and they avoid ROLL TIDE and Texas……Texas A&M has a very favorable schedule, a fine QB (if he can stay healthy) and a yuuuge upgrade at HC….Oh ya, and they can also play defense….Their two toughest games are at home and the crazies at Kyle Field just might get them over the hump……..LSU’s stop unit is a bit sketchy and they’ll be without the incredible dual-threat specimen and Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels…..Tennessee is a talented bunch but their secondary has the alarm bells going RINGY DINGY DINGY and it’s probably too much to ask their young (but very talented) QB Nico Iamaleava to lead them to the promised land in 2024…..The Vols draw ROLL TIDE and Georgia and will have to win one of those games to make the title game……..Missouri has a ridiculous offense but we don’t think the defense will hold up despite the easy conference schedule.
Fair Odds Estimate
Georgia 28.6% (+250)
Texas 16.7% (+500)
ROLL TIDE 16.7% (+500)
Ole Miss 14.3% (+600)
Texas A&M 7.7% (+1200)
LSU 6.7% (1400)
Tennessee 4.8% (+2000)
Missouri 2.9% (+3300)
Field 1.6% (+6600 or so)
Market
Big 12 Championship (posted Aug 14)
Utah +325 (0.7 units to win 2.28 units) (+325, +320, +300, +300, +300)
Iowa St +1000 (0.3 units to win 3.0 units) (+1000, +950, +900, +900, +900)
ADDED NOV 29:
Nov 30 game – Kansas St ML +115 vs Iowa St (0.45 units to win 0.52 units). +115 is consensus. You can find a bit better. This will get us half a unit back if Iowa St loses on Saturday. If they win, we’ll go from there.
ADDED DEC 6:
Right now we stand to win +1.85 units if Iowa St wins and -1.45 units if they lose. The downside is a bit much for us in a coin toss game so we’re gonna reduce our upside and downside a bit. Do whatever works best for you and your portfolio.
Arizona St ML -118. 0.85 units to win 0.72 units. If Iowa St wins we net +1.00, if they lose it’s -0.73. -118 is consensus. You can find anywhere from -115 to -125.
MEGALOCKS SAYS:
Utah is the best team in a very competitive Big 12 Conference as they’re strong on both sides of the football and they boast an excellent kicking game and an elite head coach….The schedule isn’t easy and they’ll almost certainly drop a conference game at some point but we don’t see anyone going 9-0 in Big 12 action…. We’re not as high as the market on Kansas St who’s got an exciting dual-threat QB and a very manageable conference docket……Their offensive line, WR/TE group, and pass rush are areas of concern and the +350/+400 price point doesn’t move the needle for our trading department…..Oklahoma St has a Heisman Trophy candidate at RB but they bring back the same QB (15-14 TD to INT) and most of the defense that allowed 29 PPG LY…..The price isn’t bad (+700 or so) but we’ll look elsewhere….UCF almost made the cut and they’ll be able to steamroll the majority of their opponents on the ground…..Will the defense be good enough?…..+900 or so is tempting but we’ll roll with Iowa St who’s got one of the best defenses in the conference, an emerging star at RB, an underrated set of THROW GAME weaponry, and they get UCF at home in mid-October……+1000 is a nice price and we like it down to +800.
Fair Odds Estimate
Utah 28.6% (+250)
Kansas St 16.7% (+500)
Oklahoma St 14.3% (+600)
Iowa St 14.3% (+600)
UCF 11.1% (+800)
Kansas 6.2% (+1500)
Arizona 6.2% (+1500)
Field 2.6% (+3700 or so)
Market
AAC Championship (posted Aug 17)
UTSA +500 (0.50 units to win 2.50 units) (+500, +500, +475, +450, +450)
MEGALOCKS SAYS:
Memphis looks like the CREAM of the CROP in the AAC but they have to face all three of the major players on the road (USF, UTSA, Tulane) and we’re not willing to lay the short price (+200 range) under those circumstances…..The more we look at Tulane the more we think they can make some serious noise even without former star QB Michael Pratt and HC Willie Fritz….They did a great job filling holes via the portal and picked up one of the best HC replacements possible in former Troy boss Jon Sumrall….The price is just a wee bit short for our liking…..UTSA is a legit threat and they’ve got the best schedule of the top-four contenders…..They miss Tulane and USF and get to face Memphis at home in early November…..They look rock solid on both sides of the football and have an ace HC….South Florida is a very tempting proposition in the +700 range and things get HOT and HEAVY right of the bat as their first two AAC games are vs Tulane (A) and Memphis (H)….Their offense is ridiculous but the defense leaves a lot to be desired…..A fun longshot for degenerate players is East Carolina (+1600 or so) as they’ve got a very easy conference docket to navigate and they only play one of the top four (UTSA at home, Sept 28)…..We’re not sure they have the juice on offense to GIT R DONE but look out if they upset the Roadrunners…..Our strategy right now is to play half a unit on UTSA and look for an opportunity to buy someone else (if the price is right) during the season.
Fair Odds Estimate
Memphis 30.8% (+225)
UTSA 22.2% (+350)
Tulane 18.2% (+450)
South Florida 14.3% (+600)
East Carolina 7.7% (+1200)
Field 6.8% (+1400 or so)
Market
National Championship (posted Aug 17)
Georgia +325 (0.50 units to win 1.63 units) (+325, +300, +300, +300, +300)
Oregon +750 (0.40 units to win 3.00 units) (+750, +723 +700, +700, +675)
Miami +6600 (0.10 units to win 6.6 units) (+6600, +6000, +5000, +5000, +5000)
MEGALOCKS SAYS:
Georgia is our #1 rated squad heading into the season and they’ll be a motivated bunch after missing out on the CFP in 2023…..They’ve got three tough road games (at ROLL TIDE, at Texas, at Ole Miss) but we think they’ll get at least two of those bad boys and we’re almost certain we’ll see this lethal and seasoned team in the playoffs one way or another…..There’s nothing wrong with Ohio St obviously but we had to choose amongst the favorites….We’re not sure that QB Will Howard can lead them to the promised land and the last big game Ryan Day won was back in ….<crickets>…..Oregon is offering nice value in this market and they’ve got talent all over the place….They also get Ohio St at home during the regular season and have a very soft schedule overall……We don’t think Texas is good enough to hold up throughout the SEC GAUNTLET and then win a few playoff games…..Miami is our favorite pick amongst the BOMBS as they’ve got a loaded roster and if they win the ACC they’ll get in the playoff….10 wins under any circumstance could still allow them to sneak into the dance.
Market
Heisman Trophy (posted Aug 17)
Jaxson Dart +1300 (0.35 units to win 4.55 units) (+1300, +1300, +1300, +1300, +1200)
Nico Iamaleava +1500 (0.25 units to win 3.75 units) (+1500, +1500, +1400, +1400, +1400)
Jalen Milroe +1600 (0.20 units to win 3.20 units) (+1600, +1400, +1400, +1400, +1300)
Miller Moss +4840 (0.10 units to win 4.84 units) (+4840, +4000, +4000, +4000, +4000)
Ollie Gordon +9057 (0.10 units to win 9.06 units) (+9057, +8000, +7500, +7500, +6600)
MEGALOCKS SAYS:
We’ve had good success with this market over the years and the SPRINKLE STRATEGY will be the MODUS OPERANDI in 2024….Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel is the legit betting favorite as we hit press time but we’ll look elsewhere and will try and hedge out with him if needed during the season if he starts to look like a MORTAL LOCK…..Georgia QB Carson Beck is another legit choice but Georgia plays four stout defenses in the first five games so we suggest waiting for a better price on Beck if he’s your boy…..We don’t mind Texas QB Quinn Ewers but not at less than +1000…..His upside isn’t as enticing as some of the other guys…..You know we’re yuuuuge fans of Jaxson Dart and the Ole Miss offense is loaded….The Rebels are also a legit playoff threat…..Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava gets to lead the wild and crazy Josh Heupel offense and he should get off to a fast start in September…..Jalen Milroe can do it with his arm and legs and new HC Kalen Deboer might be able to take him to the next level…..Miller Moss leads a potent USC offense and Lincoln Riley knows a thing or two about molding Heisman-caliber QBs…..Worth a stab a big odds…..Speaking of massive odds….Why not sprinkle on the best RB in college football in Ollie Gordon who gets to face a lot of DUMPSTER FIRE defenses…..NOTE…..There are a few unsubstantiated (so far) rumors about Gordon having an injury of some kind so you may want to wait closer to the opening week or avoid him altogether if you don’t wanna deal with the uncertainty…..At 90-1 we’re willing to throw down some couch change and see what happens…..We always say SHOP AROUND and here is the best example we may have ever seen….One major shop has Gordon listed at +1800 whilst there are plenty of +7500 and better in the marketplace…..It’s obviously highly unlikely that he wins the prize but when you are lucky enough to hit a BOMB you have to get paid to the max. Good luck!