Week 10 – Ohio St at Penn St
posted November 1
The Game
Yes, guy.
We’ve got one of the biggest games on the Big Ten schedule coming at you on Saturday as Ohio St visits Happy Valley to tangle with Penn St. The Buckeyes’ backs are against the wall in terms of their Big Ten hopes as they’ve already dropped one conference game (at Oregon) and they looked very average in their close shave at home vs Nebraska last week. Penn St keeps on trucking and roll into this contest with an undefeated record of 8-0 after slaying Wisconsin last Saturday.
Let’s goooo!
The Details
Ohio St -3 Penn St (47)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Ohio St -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Ohio St 25 Penn St 22
Ohio St offense vs Penn St defense
The Buckeyes rank #9 in the nation in total offense (472 YPG) and #10 in scoring offense (40 PPG) but they looked very mediocre last week and only managed to pick up 64 (!) yards on the ground vs CORN (285 total yards). They’ve still got one of the best WR corps in the nation led by the impossibly-talented Jeremiah Smith (623, 8 TD) but he’s a true freshman playing in the biggest game of his life. Ohio St is also dealing with significant injuries on the offensive line and that’s bad news when facing one of the best stop units in college football (#4 total defense, #8 run D, #14 pass efficiency D). Ohio’s St’s best shot is to take care of the football, do a good job on 3rd downs, and find a small handful of explosive plays in the THROW GAME. That won’t be easy, but it’s not an impossible task.
Penn St offense vs Ohio St defense
Penn St doesn’t blow you away with their offensive weaponry, particularly at WR, but they still rank #13 in the country in total offense (464 YPG), #28 in rushing offense, and #29 in passing offense. The point spread is suggesting that QB Drew Allar will play in this game (12-4 TD to INT) after getting injured last week but it’s good to know that they’ve got a very capable (and mobile) backup QB in Beau Pribula. The WR unit is sketchy but TE/RB/QB/LB/PK/Waterboy Tyler Warren is the most versatile weapon in college football 47, 559, 11.9, 4 TD) and Ohio St will have a tough time keeping track of his whereabouts. Ohio St is fantastic on defense (#2 total defense, #6 run D, #27 pass efficiency D) but they’ve only played one decent offense all season (Oregon) and we saw how that went.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Penn St HC James Franklin is 1-12 SU vs top-five teams over the L10Y……Ohio St has won the last 7 meetings (5-2 ATS).
Summary
Penn St has an excellent shot to get the Ohio St monkey off their back this weekend. We were hoping for a +4 to pop up but the MOB STEAM has taken things in the other direction. We won’t take them +3 but will include them in the basket of of ML Underdogs posted on Friday afternoon. Hopefully, at least three of five of those BAD BOYS will get to the window like has been the case so many weeks this year.
For those wondering about our favorite play on this game we’d go with the Ohio St team total ‘under’ if forced to make a choice.
Conclusion
Penn St gets a spot on the ML Underdog list posted Friday afternoon. See that blog page for details.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.