Week 10 – TCU at Baylor
posted October 31
The Game
We’ve got an entertaining Big 12 game to look forward to on Saturday night as TCU and Baylor do battle in Waco. Baylor is in the process of rescuing their season from the abyss after losing three games in a row vs tough Big 12 competition and they’re currently on a two-game HEATER. TCU sits at 5-3 but they’re almost certainly dead and buried in the conference race given their two Big 12 losses (UCF, Houston).
The Details
Baylor -3 TCU (64.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Baylor -4
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Baylor 33.75 TCU 30.75
Baylor offense vs TCU defense
The Bears are really starting to cook under starting QB Sawyer Robertson (17-4 TD to INT, 4 rush TD) as they’ve scored 97 points in their L2G after their bye week vs Oklahoma St and Texas Tech. They booked 345 rush, 222 pass vs the Cowboys and 255 rush, 274 pass vs Texas Tech. They’ve got a variety of weaponry at RB/WR that makes them very difficult to defend and note that Robertson has only been sacked once in the L3G. TCU doesn’t achieve much PENETRATION (#13 Big 12 TFL/game) and they’ve got a SOFT UNDERBELLY when it comes to stopping the run (#96 FBS).
TCU offense vs Baylor defense
The Horned Frogs don’t get much done on the ground (#123) and that makes them a tough sell in most games as it’s hard to win games solely thru the air. WR Savion Williams ran some “wildcat” last week and provided a spark on the ground so that’s good news for the Horned Frogs. QB Josh Hoover can definitely do damage thru the air but he makes a few too many mistakes (19-8 TD to INT) and has limited mobility. Baylor doesn’t have a strong pass rush to say the least but they did manage to book 8 (!) sacks in one game vs Colorado. TCU will get their yards and points but it’s gonna be tough to keep up with Baylor if they’re unable to run the football.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
TCU has won 8L9 meetings between these two teams…..The weather forecast a few days out includes some rain and a bit of wind which should theoretically help the team that can run the ball (Baylor) and the team that’s more careful with the football (Baylor; TCU is #128 in t/o margin)….Baylor has played one of the toughest Big 12 schedules……Colorado (lost in OT), Iowa St (L), Texas Tech (W bigly), BYU (lost by 6)…….TCU has struggled with a soft Big 12 docket (Utah, Kansas, Houston (L), Texas Tech)…..The intrepid Phil Steele ranks Baylor’s special teams at #6 and TCU at #77.
Summary
Baylor is playing their best football right now and TCU has been an inconsistent bunch all season. The Bears should be able to control the game on the ground and take it from there.
Conclusion
Official play: Baylor -3 -108
Sent 2:25pm Oct 31
-3 is listed virtually everywhere
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.