Week 15 – SEC Championship Game – Georgia vs Texas
posted December 6
The Game
The Texas Longhorns have a shot to avenge their loss to the Georgia Bulldogs earlier in the season when these teams do battle in the SEC Championship Game on Saturday afternoon. It’s been an emotional ride for Bulldogs (10-2) as things didn’t look too great after losses to ROLL TIDE and Ole Miss but they kept battling and here they are. Texas only has one blemish on their record and that was the home loss to these same Georgia Bulldogs in Austin (L 30-15) back in October.
Who comes out on top in round two?
The Details
Texas -2.5 Georgia (49.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Texas -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Texas 26 Georgia 23.5
Texas offense vs Georgia defense
The Longhorns have been decent on offense this season (#14 total offense, #52 rush, #17 pass) but they’ve certainly failed to meet expectations in terms of the firepower that they have on the roster. Texas has put up a mere 17/31/20 points in their L3G but the good news is that they’ve really got the ground game going. RB Quintrevion Weaver rushed for 186/158 yards in the L2G and overall the Longhorns have picked up 240/250/139/210 rushing yards in the L4G vs good stop units (Texas A&M/Kentucky/WOO PIG/Florida). Texas didn’t have much success running the ball vs Georgia in the first meeting and they netted a mediocre 29 yards on 27 carries after considering the yards lost on the seven (!) sacks recorded by the Bulldogs. QB Quinn Ewers has been ok but he’s certainly not playing at a championship level as we approach press time. Maybe we’ll see a bit more of the PRODIGY Arch Manning in this game? The Longhorns could certainly use his mobility in certain situations (3rd down, goal line). Texas LT Kelvin Banks may miss the game due to injury but the Longhorns have good depth up front and they’ll have to be a lot better this time around regardless of who’s in the game. Georgia’s stop unit has been a disappointment compared to their lofty standards (#35 total defense, #44 run defense, #40 pass efficiency D) and they’re coming off back-to-back games in which they were shredded on the ground (260/226 rush yards allowed to GT and UMass). In fact, the Yellow Jackets put up 563 yards in the 8 OT game last week. Can the Dawgs put forth a similar performance to the first meeting between these two squads when they held mighty Texas to just 283 yards?
Georgia offense vs Texas defense
The Dawgs have been inconsistent on this side of the football but they’ve still found a way to win 10 games vs a very difficult schedule. QB Carson Beck shows flashes of brilliance (11-0 TD to INT L3G) but he also makes a lot of unacceptable mistakes (12 INT in the other 9G). The WR/TE weaponry is very underwhelming to say the least and they’ll need at least one of their top-three WRs (Smith/Lovett/Bell) to lose the case of the DROPSIES and make a few big plays in this game. The run game has been stuck in the mud this year (#101 FBS; #21 LY) and it appears that RB Trevor Etienne may miss this game and note that he was their best offensive player when they beat Texas in October (18-92, 3 TD). More bad news for the Georgia offense comes in the form of the BRICK WALL that is the Texas defense. They rank #3 in the country in total defense, #12 in run D, and #2 in pass efficiency. QB Carson Back had a brutal time trying to get anything done with the THROW GAME in their last meeting so it’ll be interesting to see what kind of adjustments Georgia makes in this game. Texas has allowed 7/14/10/17 L4G and have held 9/12 opponents to 14 points or less. Recall that the Bulldogs had just one scoring drive over 35 (!) yards in their first meeting with Texas.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
The Longhorns are 7-5 ATS this season whilst the Bulldogs are a bankroll-incinerating 3-9 ATS…..There will be a lot of Texas fans in attendance but you have to give a small HF edge to Georgia (one point or so) given that the game is in Atlanta and the Bulldogs have plenty of experience playing in that venue…..Texas dealt with an easier SEC docket than Georgia but it’s worth noting they were +1.82 YPP in conference action whilst Georgia was +0.70 YPP.
Summary
We’ll roll with Texas as they’ve got an elite defense, an improving rushing attack, and the ability to mix things up with Arch Manning at QB when needed. Georgia has had several games of 110% max effort (ROLL TIDE, Texas, Ole Miss, 8-OT last week) and they’ve got bigger fish to fry in the CFP.
Conclusion
Holding pattern – The consensus line is currently -2.5 -120. We’ll see if the juice gets a bit lighter as Friday moves along. We’ll almost certainly still take a -3 (hopefully -105) but stay tuned!
UPDATE
Official pick – Texas -2.5 -119
Sent 4:50pm Dec 6
-2.5 -119 is consensus. One major shop in Vegas is posting -2.5 -110. You can find -2.5 -115 if you shop around offshore. It seems as though -2.5 -120 is a popular option at many mainstream venues.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.