Illinois at Nebraska – Preview and Prediction
NEBRASKA 21 ILLINOIS (53)
Implied Projected Score: Nebraska 37 Illinois 16
MEGALOCKS LINE – Nebraska 17
The Game
Nebraska continues their quest for a magical undefeated season (4-0 so far) as they take on the Fighting Lovie Smiths in Lincoln on Saturday afternoon. The Cornhuskers already have wins over Oregon and Northwestern on their resume. We have not got a good look at Illinois yet. They clobbered FCS opponent Murray St in week one and then were similarly dismissed by UNC and W Michigan. They stand at 1-2 after their bye week.
The Match-Up
Nebraska offense vs Illinois defense
We really like the balance the Huskers are showing on offense. 12th year senior QB Tommy Armstrong is throwing the ball when needed (with only 1 INT) and is also the team’s 2nd leading rusher. Devin Ozigbo and Terrell Newby provide additional punch in the running game as evident in their 300+ yard rushing performance last week against a decent Northwestern defense. Last time we saw Illinois they were getting rolled by W Michigan at home (287 rushing yards allowed). If you cannot stop the Huskers ground game you have no shot. Now can they stay within 3 TDs ? Hard to say. We do know that Nebraska’s leading WR Alonzo Moore (thanks to Nebraska Mafia for pointing out our earlier mistake) is likely going to miss this game. It still feels like the Huskers get into the mid 30s-low 40s in this contest.
Illinois offense vs Nebraska defense
We get the feeling that this Illini offense is going to end up similar to last season’s version which only scored 22.7 points per game. Wes Lunt has been fine but this is going to be a stern test. Only one WR (Malik Turner – 223 yards) has managed to do any damage and the running game was stopped cold against W Michigan. The Illini is going to need some help with turnovers and field position to score more than 14-17 points.
MEGA Mini-Bites
Amaze your ex-girlfriends…boyfriends….and life-partners with this gem…The last time the Illini beat Nebraska in Lincoln there was no such thing as the Oscars….The year was 1924…..Illinois is 5-16 ATS in their last 21 road games…..The last two times Nebraska hosted Illinois the scores were 45-14 and 39-19.
Summary
Our gut and our ratings tell us this is too many points. The match-up seems awful for Illinois. We project 34-17 so that is pretty much right on the total and the spread of -21.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Lean: None