Florida St Seminoles 2025 College Football Preview
Posted July 16, 2025
2024 Recap
Record – 2-10
ATS – 3-9
“Andy crawled to freedom through five hundred yards of shit-smelling foulness I can’t even imagine, or maybe I just don’t want to.”
<Red> played by Morgan Freeman
<Shawshank Redemption>
Our good friend Morgan Freeman sums it up pretty well. It was a long slog through a tunnel stuffed with human filth from start to finish for Florida St fans. The painful losses to YOUR Miami Hurricanes over the years **** were almost too much to bear, but last year’s 2-10 season was a special kind of fecal disaster. The Seminoles only win vs an FBS opponent was a squeaker over the communist invaders from California (W 14-9) and they finished the 2024 campaign in fine style by getting smoked by Florida.
**** Please refer to the Tidbits section for more information.
Florida St Seminoles 2025 Outlook
OFFENSE
It was one of the most disgusting performances of all time, possibly worse than what we’ve seen from Kent St over the years. The Seminoles only managed to average 15 PPG (#131) and muster up 270 YPG (#132). There’s reason for optimism in Tallahassee this season as former BC dual-threat QB Thomas Castellanos comes to town to lead the offense, and whilst we don’t think it’s optimal for him to be trash talking ROLL TIDE in advance of the season opener, you have to admire his moxie. Castellanos booked a 18-5 TD to INT ratio LY and rushed for over 1,100 yards (!) and 13 TDs in 2023. New OC Gus Freaking Malzahn has a deep set of RBs to utilize including Roydell Williams (ROLL TIDE) and Gavin Sawchuk (Sooners) and we expect much better things from the offensive line (120+ career starts, transfers) after a horrible season in 2024 (49 sacks, #132). The THROW GAME weaponry doesn’t blow you away on paper but the TE group looks strong and they’ve got at least a couple of decent options at WR in Squirrel White (Tennessee) and Duce Robinson (UCF). We don’t expect miracles but the offense will obviously be much more productive in 2025.
DEFENSE
The defense held up fairly well LY considering they got no help from the offense (28 PPG, #87) and they should make significant strides on this side of the football this year thanks in large part to a bevy of talented transfer portal specimens. The front will be strong with additions like DEs James Williams (CORN) and Deamontae Diggs (Coastal Carolina) joining stud NT Darrell Jackson, and Blake Nichelson (#2 tackles) and Elijah Herring (Tennessee) are a solid duo to build around in the middle of the defense. The Noles appear very strong at safety with the return of Shyheim Brown (#1 tackles) and KJ Kirkland, and the addition of CB Jeremiah Wilson (Houston, 4 INT LY) will help solidify the CB position. We don’t see any pass rush KILLERS of the recent past on the roster (27 sacks LY, #56) and that might be the only missing ingredient. Stay tuned!
SPECIAL TEAMS
RUH ROH.
The Seminoles have to replace the devastating kicking combo of PK Ryan FitzMAGIC (13/13 FG, 14/14 XP LY) and star punter Alex Mastromanno (49.3, 44.4!) and they’ve go do something about the PR spot (#132). It definitely helps to have KR Samuel Singleton back in the fold (TD LY) and there are some youngsters with potential battling for the PK spot.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – WHOA, NELLIE! How about that season opener vs ROLL TIDE in Tallahassee? Florida St also has their annual non-conference contest with Florida but the other two out-of-conference games are layups. The ACC docket is average in difficulty as they avoid SMU and LUA-VUH whilst having to deal with Clemson (A) and Miami (H). The four-game stretch to end the regular season is nasty and that might end up biting them in the end.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at NC State (Nov 21)
This Friday night battle comes after a pair of draining events (at Clemson, Hokies) and they’ve got the rivalry game with Florida up next. Also note that Florida St is 2-9 ATS L11 in Raleigh.
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 16
Over 6.5 -150
Under 6.5 +120
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over
It’s a bit tricky to roll with the ‘over’ given the TRIUMVIRATE of DOOM that they must face (ROLL TIDE, at Clemson, at Florida) but even if they go 0-3 in those games, they’re still capable of going 7-2 in the other nine games.
Note – Our official list of season win total investments will be posted in the blog section of the website.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
HC Mike Norvell is a mediocre 27-32-1 ATS (46%) with Florida St and just 4-9-1 (31%) in the role of road underdog.
Let’s add some balance to this preview, shall we? Florida St has made six appearances in the ACC Championship Game and won it five times. Miami has only made the big game once and they were destroyed by Clemson.
Here is a handy rundown of some excruciating moments Florida St fans have had to endure courtesy of YOUR Miami Hurricanes. We even managed to grab some quotes from SHELL-SHOCKED and mentally ill Florida St fans for your viewing pleasure.
1991 – “Wide Right I” <Miami 17 Florida St 16> “Oh darn! That was a tough break.”
1992 – “Wide Right II” <Miami 19 Florida St 16> “I want my mommy.”
2000 – “Wide Right III” <Miami 27 Florida St 24> “Why do I cheer for these donkeys and still live in Tallahassee?”
2002 – “Wide Left I” <Miami 28 Florida St 27> “I can’t take this anymore. Maybe I’ll release some dirt on the Clintons and seal my fate.”
2004 – “Wide Right IV” <Miami 16 Florida St 14> “Pass the revolver, yo.”
2018 – “Wide Left II” <Miami 28 Florida St 27> “BANG”…..eerie silence.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
This year’s edition of Florida St football looks poised for a significant rebound, but will they be good enough to challenge for the ACC crown? The offense appears to be in need of more explosive playmakers and the defense might be a bit light in the pass rush department, but this is still a team capable of staying in the conference race until November rolls around. Then, it’ll be tough. We’ll call for seven wins and believe that the floor for this team is a 6-6 regular season and a bowl appearance, whilst the dream scenario is nine regular season wins and a date with Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.