Wisconsin at Michigan – Preview and Prediction
MICHIGAN 10 WISCONSIN (44)
Implied Projected Score: Michigan 27 Wisconsin 17
MEGALOCKS LINE – Michigan -7
The Game
It’s time to get the big boy pants on. Michigan plays their 14th straight home game on Saturday and puts their undefeated 4-0 record on the line against the similarly undefeated Wisconsin Badgers. Michigan has been going through their warm-up games like a hot knife through butter. Wisconsin is coming off an upset win over Sparty on the road.
The Match-Up
Michigan offense vs Wisconsin defense
The running game has been devastating. The Wolverines are averaging 5.4 yards per carry and their top two RBs are both hitting at over 6 yards a pop. QB Wilton Speight has not thrown an INT since the first half of the first game. That is impressive. Jake Butt is a match-up nightmare at TE and Amara Darboh has 17 receptions for 248 yards.
The Wisconsin defense has been excellent. The Badgers are only allowing 3.2 yards per carry and their pass defense has been very efficient allowing only 2 TD passes all season (vs 6 INT). The big question is whether or not Michigan will give the Badgers some free points. History says that they will not. We have not seen how Speight performs against a big time defense, but the good news is that they have an excellent running game to lean on, and some very reliable weapons in the passing game. We are really interested to see how this all shakes out.
Wisconsin offense vs Michigan defense
Alex Hornibrook has been a nice find for the Badgers. He dug them out of an unexpected 4th quarter hole against Georgia St (!) and led them to victory over Michigan St on the road. The Badgers were helped by turnovers but the fact remains the final score was 30-6 and Hornibrook managed the game wonderfully. The Badgers need to do better than 3.9 yards per carry with the running game but this is going to be a tough spot to do it. If they can establish some kind of running game they will be able to hit some plays on the Michigan secondary missing one of their starting CBs. Easier said than done. But that has to be the plan. The big worry for Wisconsin has to be the INSANE success of the Wolverines on 3rd down only allowing 12% (!) conversions.
MEGA Mini-Bites
Amaze the dudes at the gym with this gem….Michigan games have gone over the total 12 straight times and 8 straight times at home…..wut ???……The Badgers are 7-1-1 L9 ATS in the series……Wisconsin will be without their very good FG kicker (OFY) and that may be a problem in a close game.
Summary
Wisconsin has faced better competition and looked pretty good doing it. Now you can argue whether or not that makes a difference in this particular game, but those are the facts of life. Michigan has just pulverized everybody and even though we see perceived value in the line, it is really hard to fade them. The defenses are great but have a gut feeling we see more points than you might think.
Conclusion
Official play: None. Sticking with the EARLY TASTER sent out on Sunday to the EARLY TASTER CLUB members – Wisconsin +11.
Lean: Over any number 42 or better (wait until game day and only play it if it drops for small potatoes).