Boise St Broncos 2025 College Football Preview
Posted June 18, 2025
2024 Recap
Record – 12-2
ATS – 8-5-1
“I don’t know what pornography is, but I know it when I see it.” <US Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart> <Jacobellis vs Ohio>
Justice Stewart was pondering the definition of obscenity back in 1964, and if he saw what Boise St RB Ashton Jeanty did last season, he would have instantly known the answer. Jeanty put the team on his back last year and led the Broncos to the College Football Playoff. The Broncos couldn’t get past an excellent Penn St team in the Fiesta Bowl (L 31-14) but they won the Mountain West Championship and finished with a record of 12-2.
What can they do for an encore?
Boise St Broncos 2025 Outlook
OFFENSE
Boise St has a gigantic crater to fill given the departure of superstar RB Ashton Jeanty (2,601, 29 TD; 23 receptions, TD) but the offense will still be under the control of QB Maddux Madsen who had a fantastic 2024 campaign (23-6 TD to INT, 5 rush TD). The 1-2 RB combo of Malik Sherrod (966, 9 TD with Fresno St in 2023) and redshirt freshman SIRE Gaines is one of the best in the conference but there’s no doubt that Madsen will have to do more of the heavy lifting with the THROW GAME. Thankfully for the Broncos, they retain elite TE Matt Lauter (619, 7 TD) and #2 WR Latrell Caples (473, 5 TD), and keep your eye on highly-touted specimen WR Chris Marshall who’s eagerly waiting to make his Boise St debut. The offensive line is in fantastic shape as the unit boasts close to 100 career starts and they have studs at C and LT.
DEFENSE
The Broncos were decent on defense last year (22.6 PPG, #37; 364 YPG, #60) and they were most well known for their ability to achieve maximum PENETRATION (55 sacks, #1 FBS!!). The Broncos lost a small handful of really productive players but the good news is that they still look loaded and retain four of their top-five tacklers, as well as their top sack producer in EDGE Jayden Virgin-Morgan (10). The DL looks a bit less potent on paper but it’s still one of the best front lines in the Group of Five and they’ll be supported by LB Marco Notarainni who was a 1st Team MW honoree in 2024. The secondary looks absolutely DEVASTATING with the return of four starters including #1 tackler safety Ty Benefield and ace CB A’Marion McCoy (14 PBU). It’s extremely unlikely that the Broncos tally 50+ sacks again this season but we project them having slightly better numbers from a PPG and YPG perspective.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Broncos will have to work in a new PK and punter, as well as find a new primary PR. It’s good to know that KR Dylan Riley is back in the mix (29.6 TD).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The difficulty level is ‘medium’. The Broncos have three tough non-conference games (at USF, Appalachian St, at Notre Dame) and whilst they miss San Jose St they draw Air Force (A) and UNLV (H). The back end of the Mountain West docket should be smooth sailing.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Appalachian St (Sept 27)
This is a tough scheduling situation as the Broncos will be coming off a big game with Air Force and they’ve got a visit to FREAKING NOTRE DAME (!) up next.
Season Win Total
Market consensus June 18
Over 9.5 -230
Under 9.5 +180
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage
That looks about right. Even if you assume they lose to Notre Dame it’s hard to find two more losses on the schedule. The price is a bit prohibitive for our tastes as we approach press time.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Broncos continue to be an impossible fade vs the point spread when dealing with conference opponents. They went 5-2-1 ATS vs the Mountain West last season and are a sparkling 47-34-2 (58%) ATS vs conference foes over the L10Y.
Boise St has increased their sack total for four consecutive seasons (18,28,30,36,55). Can they pull the trick one more time? It won’t be easy, yo.
Boise, Idaho rung in the Year 2025 with the 12th annual IDAHO POTATO DROP on New Year’s Eve! Check it out next time you’re in the area for New Year’s celebrations, and don’t forget to bring your helmet.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
This should be another entertaining and successful season for Boise St football. It’s impossible to replace the legendary Ashton Jeanty at RB but this year’s roster looks stacked and we’ll be shocked if they don’t find their way into the Mountain West Championship Game once again. The Broncos are legit odds-on favorites to win the conference and it’s very possible we’ll see them in the College Football Playoff.
Boise!……..State!