UNLV Rebels 2025 College Football Preview
Posted June 22, 2025
2024 Recap
Record – 11-3
ATS – 8-6
That was a fantastic run by the Rebels as they ripped thru the regular season at 10-2 with their only losses coming on the road in OT vs Syracuse and against the eventual conference champs from Boise St (L 29-24). They won the majority of their games by double-digit margins and rolled into Boise for a rematch in the Mountain West Championship Game. Sadly, they played a horrible first half and never had a chance in a 21-7 loss on the blue turf. UNLV finished the campaign on a fine note by taking down Cal in the HOLLYWOOD CREEPS LA Bowl (W 24-13) to finish at 11-2.
Dan FREAKING Mullen comes to town as the new head coach and he’ll try and keep the train rolling. Let’s gooooo!
UNLV Rebels 2025 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Rebels were able to SCORE the FOOTBALL on a regular basis last season (35 PPG, #15) and they did it thanks largely to a devastating rushing attack (244 YPG, #7). It stings to lose star dual-threat QB Hajj-Malik Williams (19-5 TD to INT; 851 rush, 9 TD) but UNLV grabbed a talented replacement in former Virginia signal-caller Anthony Colandrea. The Rebels also scooped up former Michigan steamroller QB Alex Orji who’s not much of a passer, but a very dangerous runner. We’re a bit worried about Colandrea’s innate ability to keep both teams in the game with great throws and bonehead mistakes (26-20 career TD to INT) but we’ll see what happens. The Rebels boast the most potent RB room in the conference given the return of legit #1 RB Jai’Den Thomas (918, 5.6, 7 TD) and the addition of Power Four specimens RB Keyvone Lee (Miss St) and Jaylon Glover (Utah). Sadly for Colandrea, the WR unit has been decimated with the departure of their top-two WRs including NFL-bound Ricky White (1,041, 11 TD) and it’ll be up to the transfers to make an immediate impact on the THROW GAME. UNLV brought in several Power Four bodies including WR JoJo Earle (TCU), Troy Omeire (Arizona St), and TE Var’Keyes Gumms (WOO PIG) and the odds are pretty good that HC Dan Mullen and company will find some playmakers on the depth chart. The biggest issue on this side of the football is an offensive line that needs to be completely retooled. All five starters are gone including a pair of all-conference performers, and you know we’re sad to lose our ability to create more TIGER SHANKS content.
DEFENSE
The Rebels allowed a very respectable 21 PPG LY (#27) and their SECRET SAUCE was the ability to achieve impressive PENETRATION (42 sacks, #8; #22 TFL/game) and force plenty of turnovers (23, #23). There’s massive turnover to deal with on defense as the Rebels retain just two starters from the 2024 stop unit and only one of their top-19 (!) tacklers. More importantly, the Rebels lose the heart and soul of their defense in 2nd Team AA LB Jackson Woodard (135 tackles, 17 TFL, 4 INT) and we’re not sure how they fully recover from that potential DEATH BLOW. The DL looks like a problem area as all of LY’s starters departed and they don’t have a ton of size or experience up front. LB Marsel McDuffie is a good piece to build around in the middle of the defense (2 sacks, 7.5 TFL) but he’ll need some help from the multitude of transfers added during the offseason. Almost everyone is gone from LY’s excellent secondary and once again, the Rebels will be relying upon new faces to step up immediately. Some promising additions include safety Jake Pope (Georgia) and safety Jaheem Joseph (West Virginia).
SPECIAL TEAMS
UNLV did the absolutely UNTHINKABLE last season and followed up a #2 special teams ranking (per Phil Steele) in 2023 with a #1 (!!) rating in 2024. Their kicking game was phenomenal and they blocked an insane number of punts. It’s reloading time for the Rebels and we’ll see how the new combo of PK Caden Costa (8/13 FG LY with Memphis) and new Aussie punter Cameron Brown performs this year. It also stings to lose their fine PR/KR Jacob De Jesus (10.1, 21.1 LY).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The non-conference schedule looks favorable as they don’t have any “unwinnable” games and they’ve got a legit shot at starting 3-1 before Mountain West action begins. Conference play starts out nasty (at Wyoming, Air Force, at Boise St) but if they can survive that early GAUNTLET they’ve got a shot to finish strong. <grabs popcorn>
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Air Force (Oct 11)
This game is sandwiched between a trip to altitude to face a physical Wyoming squad and a revenge date at Boise St. Air Force has won 10L13 meetings and their rushing attack looks poised to do some damage this season.
Season Win Total
Market consensus June 22
Over 8.5 -105
Under 8.5 -125
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Under
The schedule isn’t too imposing but asking them to win nine regular season games with this much roster turnover isn’t our cup of tea.
Note – Our official list of season win total investments will be posted in the blog section of the website.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Rebels are a SPICY 30-16 ATS (65%) as a road underdog and an impossibly impossible 28-11 ATS (72%) in non-conference games over the L10Y.
UNLV’s last conference championship came way back in 1994 when they triumphed in something called the Big West (7-5, 5-1) under the tutelage of your boy Jeff Horton.
“Dude, she’s hot.”
“Dude, she’s got an Adam’s apple.”
“Dude, she’s still hot.”
Those are just one of the many conversations we’ve been a party to in the land of debauchery, $18 diet cokes, and random stabbings. And don’t get us started on the negatives. Las Vegas used to be a great place to visit, but here we are.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
This is one of the most intriguing teams in the Group of Five. A puzzle wrapped up in an enigma. On the one hand, they’ve lost a ton of production on both sides of the football, but on the other hand, Dan Mullen is a proven winner and there’s still a lot of raw talent on the roster. In the final analysis, we believe that former boss Barry Odom will be tough to replace and you know they’ll take a dive in terms of special teams performance. We’ll call for seven or eight wins and don’t think we’ll see them make the Mountain West Championship Game this season.