Iowa Hawkeyes 2025 College Football Preview
Posted July 31, 2025
2024 Recap
Record – 8-5
ATS – 6-6-1
The Hawkeyes started the season at 4-2 with one loss coming in heartbreaking fashion (L 20-19, Iowa St) and another coming via expected blowout (L 35-7, Ohio St). Iowa still appeared to be in good shape heading into the second half of the campaign given the schedule ahead of them but they found a way to lose to Michigan St and that ended any slim hopes they had of making a run in the Big Ten. They won four of their last five regular season games to get to 8-4 and then dropped a tight one to MIZZ-UR-AH in the Music City bowl. Yup, it was another very good, but not great season for Iowa football.
Iowa Hawkeyes 2025 Outlook
OFFENSE
Iowa had one of the worst offenses of any team in any sport in the history of time back in 2023 (15 PPG, 2nd last FBS, Kent St) but last year the offense booked a decent 28 PPG (#72). This was despite having absolutely disgusting QB play (10-8 TD to INT, #130 passing offense) but they were able to move the chains thanks to the devastating performance of star RB Kaleb Johnson (1,537, 21 TD). Johnson is off to the NFL but their #2 and #3 RBs return for battle (Moulton, Patterson) and we’re virtually certain that at least one of those doods will have a big season. There’s great news to report from the QB room as Iowa hired star QB Mark Gronowski from South Dakota St and all he did was lead the Jackrabbits to back-to-back FCS National Championships. The WR/TE situation looks bleak as “#1” WR Jacob Gill doesn’t exactly intimidate the opposition (411, 11.7, 2 TD) and they lost stud TE Luke Lachey to the NFL. We’re hopeful that sophomore WR Reece Vander Zee can have a breakout campaign but it doesn’t look like Gronowski is gonna have too many tasty options in the THROW GAME. The offensive line was fantastic LY (5.1 YPC, 17 sacks) and they’re in great shape heading into 2025 with over 80 career starts in the group and one of the best centers in college football (Logan Jones) leading the way.
DEFENSE
The Hawkeyes were stellar on defense yet again LY (18 PPG, #11; 318 YPG, #20) and it’s amazing to think that the last time they allowed 20+ PPG was way back in 2015 (!) (20.4). The DL has an embarrassment of riches with the return of the majority of their two-deep including star DE Ethan Hurkett (6.5 sacks, 11.5 TFL) and note the SPICY addition of FCS AA Bryce Hawthorne from South Dakota St. The LB corps is the weakest link on defense after losing AA Jay Higgins (#1 tackles, 4 INT, 6 QBH) and Nick Jackson (#2 tackles) but at least they’ve got a pair of sturdy veterans to anchor the unit (Harrell, Sharar). The secondary gave up more big plays than usual LY (#31 FBS 20+ yard pass plays, #1! in 2023) but we expect them to get back to Iowa standards this year as they’ve got too much talent on the back end, not to mention one of the best DCs in the nation in Phil Parker.
SPECIAL TEAMS
WHOA, NELLIE
and
YES, GUY.
We’ve never said both in one preview. You are now part of history.
This is one of the best special teams units we’ve ever seen heading into a season. PK Drew Stevens is deadly (20/23 FG, 40/40 XP LY), punter Rhys Dakin is a potential AA (44.1, 40.2), and they’ve got a superstar return specialist in Kaden Wetjen who was dominant in 2024 (PR – 12.6, TD; KR – 28.0, TD).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – As is often the case Iowa has a pair of automatic blowout wins in non-conference action (Albany, UMass) but they’ve also got the annual rivalry game (coin toss) with Iowa St (A). The Big Ten slate is very kind as they avoid Ohio St and Michigan whilst getting their two toughest challenges at home (Penn St, Oregon).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at USC (Nov 15)
This is a rare trip out to the west coast and it follows a yuuuge home game vs Oregon. USC will be coming off a blowout home win over Northwestern **** and be advised that USC is 11-6 ATS as home chalk under HC Lincoln Riley (4-0 LY).
**** Crystal ball, yo.
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 31
Over 6.5 -170
Under 6.5 +140
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over
This team looks just as good as last year’s squad and the schedule is reasonable.
Note – Our official list of season win total investments will be posted in the blog section of the website.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The last time Iowa had a losing season was way back in, wait for it, keeping waiting, 2012 (!) when they finished 4-8. Before that, it was 2006 (6-7).
Head coach Kirk Ferentz is not only a LIVING LEGEND but he’s also been a good friend to DEGENERATE NATION over his 26-year coaching career with the Hawkeyes (175-142-8 ATS, 55%).
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
The GREAT STATE of IOWA should be mighty proud of a football program that churns out winning seasons like nobody’s business. It seems impossible but the Hawkeyes actually have a legit quarterback leading the show and the defense should be nasty as always. Special teams are often overlooked and Iowa has a phenomenal group of specialists. The schedule isn’t a cakewalk but it’s not as difficult as what some of their key competitors in the Big Ten are facing. This team looks capable of winning eight games and who knows what the upside could be if everything comes together?
Fight! Fight, Fight! for Iowa.