posted December 17
Fenway Bowl – UConn vs Army
The Game
We’re heading to Boston for some WICKID HARRRD bowl action as UConn battles Army on the hallowed ground of Fenway Park. Army (6–6) is coming off a loss to their hated rivals from Navy in what was an instant classic and one of the best games of the 2025 season. They’ll be looking to get the bad taste out of their collective mouths in this battle. UConn (9–3) has followed up last year’s 9–4 campaign in style as they roll into Boston on a four‑game HEATER and look to book their first 10‑win season since joining the FBS in the year 2000.
The Details
Army -8.5 UConn (44.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Army -7.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Army 26.5 UConn 18
Army offense vs UConn defense
It’s no secret that Army is gonna try and grind the Huskies into dust with their relentless ground game that averages 246 YPG (#6 FBS). QB Cade Hellums does a lot of the dirty work, carrying the ball an incredible 289 times for 1,178 yards and 16 (!) scores. SB Noah Short is their most dangerous weapon (556 yards, 6.0 YPC, TD), but overall the Black Knights don’t have a lot of explosivity to their offense, and they do almost nothing through the air.
This shapes up as a nightmare matchup for UConn, as they’ve had trouble stopping the run all season (186 YPG allowed, #116) and have allowed similar offenses — Air Force (290 yards) and Rice (300 yards) — to go ALL NIGHT LIKE LUMBERJACK on the ground.
UConn offense vs Army defense
Welcome to bowl season, yo. It’s time for another episode of “We quit to prepare for the NFL”.
The Huskies had one of the most lethal passing attacks in the nation during the regular season (301 YPG, #7) behind star QB Joe Fagnano, who put up ridiculous numbers in his final collegiate season (3,448 yards, 28–1 TD/INT!). He won’t be playing in this event. The Huskies’ devastating WR Skyler Bell (101 receptions, 1,278 yards, 13 TD) will also be skipping the game, but at least #1 RB Cam Edwards has decided to suit up for his school and teammates one more time (1,132 yards, 14 TD). Fun Fact: The Fagnano/Bell/Edwards triumvirate is the first in UConn history to record 3,000 passing yards, 1,000 receiving yards, and 1,000 rushing yards in a single season.
The offense has been neutered, so it’s tough to know how bad things could get in this game. We’ll have a better idea of how many guys listed in the transfer portal have quit once we get closer to gameday. Army plays a stingy brand of defense (350 YPG allowed, #50), but a lot of their SECRET SAUCE comes from the fact that the Army offense hogs the ball, and the defense is almost always well‑rested when they take the field. That’ll almost certainly be the case in the Fenway Bowl.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
UConn will be playing without former HC Jim Mora who’s off to coach Colorado St.
NOBODY has beaten UConn in regulation this year. All three of the Huskies’ losses came in OT (Syracuse, Delaware, Rice). Amaze your PAROLE OFFICER with that trivia nugget.
Army is –0.76 (!) in net YPP margin vs the #76 schedule. The Black Knights have beaten two bowl‑eligible teams — UTSA and Kansas St, who sucked out and decided to stay home and not play in a bowl game.
UConn is +1.12 in net YPP margin vs the #134 (!) schedule, but that doesn’t mean a heck of a lot right now given the star power that won’t be available in this game. The Huskies have only taken down two bowl teams (Duke (!), FIU).
UConn won their bowl game last year, and it came in this very event vs North Carolina (W 27–14). Army is 8-3 in bowl games and have won two in a row.
Army is 6–6 ATS whilst UConn clocks in at 6–5–1 ATS.
Summary
We could only look at Army in this game. They’ve got a favorable matchup and they do very well in postseason play. They’ll be looking to avoid their first losing season since before the PLANDEMIC (2019, 5–8). It’s hard to back UConn without their HC, QB, and star WR — and who knows who else. We’re just not sure we wanna lay this many points.
Conclusion
No leanage for now.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.