posted December 17
Boca Raton Bowl – Toledo vs Louisville
The Game
It’s time to head down to the land of the beautiful people and take in some SWEET Boca Raton Bowl ACTION!
Toledo (8–4) has spent a lot of time crushing and killing outmatched foes in the MAC, and while they were almost certainly the most talented team in the conference on paper, they didn’t make the MAC Championship Game thanks to a pair of YUUUGE blown leads in league play (Western Michigan, Bowling Green). This game gives the Rockets a chance to SHOCK the WORLD and take down a Power Four opponent.
LUA‑VUH (8–4) looked like a legit ACC contender after starting 7–1, but they collapsed like a house of cards down the stretch, dropping three straight. On the bright side, they beat Kentucky like a RENTED MULE in the regular‑season finale (W 41–zip) and come into this game with a bit of theoretical momentum.
The Details
Louisville -6.5 Toledo (45)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Louisville -6
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Louisville 25.75 Toledo 19.25
Louisville offense vs Toledo defense
The Cardinals were a fairly average bunch on offense during the regular season (163 YPG rushing, #65; 226 YPG passing, #67), and it certainly didn’t help that they were hit hard by the injury bug at the skill positions. We’re not sure what to expect in this game, but it doesn’t look awesome. First, the good news: starting QB Miller Moss is gonna suit up (2,526 yards, 14–7 TD/INT), and that’s a good thing because Deuce Adams needs some work during the offseason. The bad news? HC Jeff Brohm says he hopes that “one of them will play” in terms of the top three in the RB room, but note that RBs Braxton Jennings and Shaun Boykins each (!) rushed for over 100 yards in the Kentucky game. Star WR Chris Bell (917 yards, 6 TD) isn’t available (ACL), and that’s a big blow to the THROW GAME.
It’s definitely not common knowledge — particularly since Toledo lost four games — but did you know the Rockets rank #3 in the country in total defense (247 YPG), #8 vs the run, #2 (!) in pass efficiency defense, and #4 in scoring defense (#12 FBS)? Amaze KAREN down the street with that statistical load. LUA‑VUH is gonna have a tough time moving the football, but they still have a crafty veteran QB and an excellent offensive mind as HC. It appears as though the Toledo stop unit remains almost fully intact for this bowl game, as almost everyone — including guys in the transfer portal — appears ready to play.
Toledo offense vs Louisville defense
Much like the Cardinals, the Rockets were a bit underwhelming compared to expectations this season (#31 total offense, #38 scoring offense), as they beat up on the PURE FILTH on the schedule and were inconsistent vs the better defenses they faced. They only averaged 15 PPG in their four losses, and the Cardinals’ defense stacks up very well with the stop units that held Toledo in check. QB Tucker Gleason is decent (2,515 yards, 21–9 TD/INT), RB Chip Trayanum is a beast (950 yards, 11 TD), and WR Junior Vandeross (947 yards, 11 TD) is one of the best Group of Five wideouts in the nation.
LUA‑VUH is very stout on defense (#16 total defense, #35 scoring defense), but they’ll be without a few key players who’ve quit and opted out of the bowl game, including two starters on the defensive line.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Long‑time Toledo HC Jason Candle is off to coach the UConn Huskies, and it’ll be QB coach Robert Weiner who leads the Rockets in this one. We know you think we’ll do it, but we REFUSE to grill anyone over their last name. To be frank, we’re just not doing it. We’re not here to roast anyone’s surname.
LUA‑VUH is +1.30 in net YPP margin vs the #45 schedule. They’ve beaten three bowl teams (Miami, Pitt, James Madison).
Toledo is +2.39 (!) in net YPP margin vs the (yikes) #130 schedule. The Rockets have also vanquished three bowl teams (Miami Ohio, Central Michigan, WKU).
Toledo is 9–3 ATS whilst the Cardinals are a disappointing 4–8 vs Vegas.
The long‑range weather forecast looks good as we approach press time — breezy, with a 20% chance of rain. As always, check closer to gameday if you plan on getting down on the game.
Summary
We prefer the Toledo side after considering all the opt‑outs and believe the Rockets will be the more motivated squad. However, it’s clear that LUA‑VUH holds a massive coaching edge. Let’s see if a +7 pops up again and go from there.
Conclusion
Holding pattern as per above.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.