posted December 20
First Responder Bowl – FIU vs UTSA
The Game
FIRE MARSHALL BILL is jacked up for another edition of the First Responder Bowl!
UTSA (6–6) had a very disappointing season by their standards and were never in the American Conference title chase. They destroyed the ARRRR Pirates of East Carolina in the penultimate game of the regular season but lost the finale at home vs. Army.
FIU (7–5) has been a pleasant surprise in CUSA this year, quietly putting together a four‑game winning streak to close the regular season. The Panthers have already clinched their first winning season since 2018 (!), so they’ll be playing with house money in this one as they try to pull the upset.
This might be the toughest game of the bowl season to predict based on the number of players who’ll be missing, but let’s take a peek at what’s up.
The Details
UTSA -5.5 FIU (59.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – UTSA -6.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: UTSA 32.5 FIU 27
UTSA offense vs FIU defense
The Roadrunners’ offense was absolutely devastating at home (46 PPG), but they were brutal on the road (22 PPG). Maybe they can split the difference in this neutral‑site affair, but the reality is that they’re much more potent in the dome. The good news is that QB Owen McCown (68%, 27–7 TD‑to‑INT) will play in this game, and it appears they’ll have their top two RBs, including the explosive Robert Henry (1,045 yards, 6.9 YPC, 9 TD). They’ll also be rolling with essentially their full complement of THROW GAME weaponry; the only real issue is a battered and bruised offensive line. The Roadrunners didn’t allow a sack in any of their last three games (!) but the run game was hit‑or‑miss in the second half of the season.
FIU’s secondary has been decimated by quitters and injuries, so UTSA should be able to SCORE the FOOTBALL. The Panthers finished the regular season ranked No. 5 in CUSA in run defense, No. 5 in pass‑efficiency defense, and No. 2 in sacks (28). Unless more players quit to “prepare for the NFL” or more injuries are announced, it appears UTSA is a good bet to hit their implied team total.
FIU offense vs UTSA defense
The Panthers averaged 409 YPG, good for 2nd in CUSA behind only the mighty Blue Hens from Delaware. FIU does a very good job of achieving balance, but it’s the run game that UTSA should be most worried about. RB Keyone Owens (1,298 yards, 6.3 YPC, 11 TD) is one of the best backs in the Group of Five, and the Panthers rushed for over 500 (!) combined yards in their last two games vs. Sam Houston and Jax State.
It’s not clear at press time who will start at QB for the Panthers, but if you believe the HC update, each of the top two (Jenkins, Pesanky) has a good shot of being available, and both have decent stats (combined 18–11 TD‑to‑INT).
The potential disaster in this game is the UTSA defense, as it’s not that good to begin with (run defense: 156 YPG allowed, No. 78; pass defense: 227 YPG allowed, No. 82), and now, according to Jeff Traylor, they could be missing over half a dozen starters. FIU also looks to be in decent shape in terms of exceeding their implied team total.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
The last time FIU participated in a bowl game was before the PLANDEMIC back in 2019 when they lost in the Camellia Bowl to the AWOOOO Red Wolves of Arkansas St, and they last tasted bowl victory in the 2018 Bahamas Bowl when they SHOCKED the WORLD and upset Toledo.
UTSA has won their last two bowl games (2024, 2023) by a combined margin of 79-32.
FIU is +0.02 in net YPP margin vs the #138 (!) schedule. The Panthers have beaten two bowl teams (WKU, Jax St).
UTSA is +0.13 in net YPP margin vs the #82 docket. They’ve taken down three fellow bowlers (Rice, East Carolina, Tulane). All three of those wins came at home in the dome.
Summary
As noted earlier, this is one tough cookie to handicap. UTSA is the better team from the better conference, but they’re missing a lot of bodies on defense. We couldn’t fault anyone who wants to take a shot with the dog. Head scratcher, yo.
Conclusion
No leanage so far.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.