posted December 22
New Mexico Bowl – San Diego St vs North Texas
The Game
The land of HEISENBERG hosts another edition of the New Mexico Bowl as the San Diego State Aztecs tangle with the North Texas Mean Green.
San Diego State (9–3) rode a ferocious defense to the doorstep of the Mountain West Championship Game, but they fell in overtime to New Mexico in the regular season finale and missed out on the title game due to a sketchy tiebreaker. Even so, it was a wonderful bounce‑back season for an Aztecs program that had gone 7–17 over the previous two campaigns.
North Texas (11–2) was a dominant force in the American Conference this season, and they did it in large part thanks to a devastating offense. They powered their way into the conference title game only to fall to Tulane. A disappointing finish, sure, but still an excellent run for the Mean Green.
Both programs have been hit hard with departures, but let’s dig in and see what the matchup is all about.
The Details
North Texas -3.5 San Diego St (53.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – North Texas -5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: North Texas 28.5 San Diego St 25
North Texas offense vs San Diego St defense
The Mean Green have moved like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE all year and they rank #1 in the nation in scoring offense (45 PPG) and #1 in total offense (504 YPG). There’s plenty of bad news to report as star QB Drew Mestemaker, the nation’s leading passer (4,129 yards, 31–7 TD‑to‑INT), is almost certainly going to enter the transfer portal and is highly unlikely to play in this game. He’s in line for a big payday. The backup QB situation is murky, as Mestemaker has thrown all but 10 of the team’s 426 passes.
We’re still waiting on who might quit in the WR corps, including star Wyatt Young (1,209 yards, 10 TD), and note that electric RB Caleb Hawkins (1,236 yards, 23 TD!) was injured in the title battle with Tulane (7 carries, 20 yards) and may not play in this one. The HITS KEEP COMING when you consider that HC Eric Morris is gone to Oklahoma State, but the offensive system is very much plug‑and‑play for the time being, and it could still be effective if enough guys stick around. We’ll see.
The good news for North Texas is that San Diego State’s excellent stop unit (#5 scoring defense, #6 total defense) will be missing ace DC Rob Aurich, who’s off to Nebraska. It’s very likely that a small handful of key guys on defense will miss this game, but it’ll be important to follow the news cycle.
San Diego St offense vs North Texas defense
The Aztecs were carried by the defense this year, and the offense was tough to watch for good chunks of the season. They managed to do a good job on the ground thanks to stud RB Lucky Sutton (1,237 yards, 10 TD), but the THROW GAME was a disaster (#125 FBS passing offense). Starting QB Jayden Denegal was boom‑or‑bust during the regular season — and mostly bust (59%, 9–8 TD to INT) — but the Aztecs will be without him for this affair.
Backup QB Bert Emanuel Jr. is a run‑first specimen with limited passing skills, so it seems clear that San Diego State will have to lean heavily on the rushing attack. This game actually provides a good matchup for the Aztecs offense, as the Mean Green are stingy vs. the pass (#9 FBS pass defense) but an ABOMINATION vs. the run (207 YPG allowed, #128). The Aztecs’ only real shot in this game is to throw everything they have at North Texas with a ground‑and‑pound approach and hope they can hit a few big plays through the air at some point.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
San Diego State’s last bowl win came back in 2021 when they defeated UTSA in the Frisco Bowl. HC Sean Lewis was 1–1 in bowl action with Kent State, and this will be his first postseason shot with the Aztecs.
North Texas is an impossibly impossible 2–12 (!!) in bowl games, and they’ve lost seven in a row. If they win this one, they’ll have to do it with an interim HC.
Both of these squads have been great to DEGENERATE NATION in 2025. The Aztecs are 9–3 ATS, whilst North Texas is 10–3 vs. the number.
North Texas is +2.06 (!) in net YPP margin vs. the #97 schedule. They’ve beaten six (!) bowl squads along the way (Rice, Navy, UTSA, Army, Western Michigan, Washington State).
San Diego State is +1.29 in net YPP margin vs. the #108 docket. The Aztecs have booked wins over three fellow bowlers (Cal, Fresno State, Boise State).
Summary
We prefer North Texas in this game, but it’s hard to back them with an unknown situation at QB, RB, and WR. San Diego State should have some success running the ball, but we don’t see them scoring too many points. We’ll take a pass for now.
Conclusion
No leanage
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.