posted December 22
Rate Bowl – Virginia vs Missouri
The Game
We’re heading down to GATOR country for a SPICY ACC vs. SEC matchup as the Virginia Cavaliers tangle with the Missouri Tigers.
Missouri (8–4) started out like a HOUSAFIRE, ripping off five straight wins to open the season, but as the schedule stiffened they began to take on water, dropping four of their final seven games. Virginia (10–3) were the CARDIAC KIDS all season long, winning a bunch of tight ones — including THREE in overtime — and somehow navigating their way to the ACC Championship Game. Sadly, Duke got the better of them in the big one, and Virginia blew a golden chance to make the CFP.
The Details
Missouri -4 Virginia (45)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Missouri -5.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Missouri 24.5 Virginia 20.5
Missouri offense vs Virginia defense
The Tigers have done a great job on the ground thanks in large part to the devastating performance of star RB Ahmad Hardy (1,650 yards, 6.5!, 16 TD), and they currently rank #1 in the SEC (!) in rushing (236 YPG), a total that’s good for #8 nationally. RB Jamal Roberts is also a fine option (697 yards, 6.2!, 5 TD), and the Virginia run defense is gonna have their hands full in this one. Thankfully for Virginia, they’ve done a fine job vs. the run (110 YPG allowed, #22 FBS), and they haven’t allowed anyone to book 150+ rushing yards since Florida State did it back in September.
Missouri’s starting QB Beau Pribula is gone and won’t be playing in this game. Missouri will miss his mobility, but backup QB Matt Zollers provides more upside in the THROW GAME. Zollers will have to work some magic with a depleted WR corps, but at least he’ll still have a few viable options, including #1 WR Kevin Coleman (715 yards, TD). Virginia’s defense really came on in the second half of the regular season, so it’ll be interesting to see if the Tigers can get things going on the ground to set up some shots downfield.
Virginia offense vs Missouri defense
The Cavaliers’ offense followed the opposite path of the defense, taking a sharp downturn in performance as the season went along (32 PPG on the year; just 23 PPG over the last four games). When they’re at their best, Virginia is well balanced (#36 rushing, #55 passing) and getting efficient production from veteran QB Chandler Morris (65%, 16–9 TD‑to‑INT). Virginia may be without #1 WR Trell Harris (847 yards, 5 TD), who got banged up in the ACC title game, but they’ve got decent depth at WR/TE to help soften the blow.
Missouri has one of the stingiest defenses in college football (#10 total defense, #23 scoring defense), and they’re excellent against the run (103 YPG allowed, #17), so it’ll be tough sledding for Virginia’s fantastic RB J’Mari Taylor, who’s already cleared 1,000 yards with 14 TD. The Tigers also bring a legit pass rush (35 sacks, #4 SEC), but Virginia does a very good job protecting the passer (16 sacks allowed, #4 ACC), so Morris should have enough time to operate unless they get into consistent 3rd-and-long situations.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Virginia hasn’t appeared in a bowl game since the 2019 Orange Bowl when they lost to Florida. This will be HC Tony Elliott’s first crack at coaching in a bowl event.
Missouri has won bowl games in each of the last two years. The victims? Iowa and Ohio State. Not bad, yo.
Virginia is +0.82 in net YPP margin vs. the #60 schedule. The Cavaliers took down four bowl teams (Duke, Cal, Washington State, LUA‑VUH).
Missouri is +1.37 in net YPP margin vs. the #30 list of assignments. The Tigers only took down two bowl teams (Miss State, Louisiana). Kansas was bowl‑eligible but quit and didn’t want to play any more this year.
Virginia is a profitable 8–5 ATS. Missouri weighs in at 6–5–1 vs. Vegas.
The long‑range weather forecast looks great, but we’re still a number of days away from kickoff.
Summary
This is a tough game to call. Missouri has played the much tougher schedule, but they didn’t manage to beat anyone better than Virginia. Missouri has the best player in the game in RB Ahmad Hardy and they’re a proven bowl‑game entity. Both stop units are very good. We’ll wait for news in the coming days and go from there.
Conclusion
No leanage so far.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.