posted December 23
Pinstripe Bowl – Clemson vs Penn St
The Game
The Bronx will be hosting another edition of the Pinstripe Bowl, and it features two of the most well‑known programs in the sport.
Clemson (7–5) has been a major disappointment this season, but to their credit they’ve kept plugging away and are currently on a four‑game HEATER as we approach press time. The Tigers finished the regular season in style with a comfortable win over South Carolina in the finale.
“We’re going streaking!”
Penn State (6-6) started out 3–0 and certainly didn’t appear to be heading toward an iceberg, but a home loss vs. mighty Oregon triggered a six‑game (!) losing streak. Much like Clemson, the Nittany Lions refused to quit and won their final three contests to earn a bowl bid.
This is one of a few bowl games that’s been decimated recently in terms of quitting players and coaches, but we’ll do our best to sort things out, yo.
The Details
Clemson -3 Penn St (48.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Clemson -2
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Clemson 25.75 Penn St 22.75
Clemson offense vs Penn St defense
The Tigers haven’t been able to get much done on the ground this year (131 YPG, #99), but they’ve managed to move the ball pretty well through the air (274 YPG, #19). Veteran starting QB Cade Klubnik is gonna play in this game, which is YUUUUGE for the Tigers, but he’ll be without two key weapons in WR Antonio Williams (604 yards, 4 TD) and WR Bryant Wesco (injury), who’s missed a number of games. The OL is banged up, but at least they’ll have #1 RB Adam Randall (779 yards, 9 TD) available, as well as WR T.J. Moore (754 yards, 4 TD).
Penn State hasn’t been their usual stout selves on defense (#72 run D, #69 pass efficiency D), and they’ve only picked off six passes all year. They’ll be missing some dudes, including stud DT Zane Durant — not to mention DC Jim Knowles. It’s hard to know how a shell of a Clemson offense will stack up vs. a depleted Penn State stop unit, but we think Clemson finds a way to score some points.
Penn St offense vs Clemson defense
QB Ethan Grunkemeyer has stepped up and played pretty well (6–4 TD‑to‑INT, 69%) in place of injured starter Drew Allar, particularly given that Penn State doesn’t have a very dynamic group of WR/TEs. Their only two WRs with over 400 receiving yards both look like they’re gonna go (Pena, Ross), but the only way the Nittany Lions win this contest is with a big performance from All‑Universe RB Kaytron Allen (1,303 yards, 6.2 YPC, 13 TD). Allen is scheduled to go, but if you see the line move in Clemson’s favor over the next little while, there’s a good chance the MOBSTERS have found out he isn’t gonna be available.
Speaking of availability, Clemson has been solid vs. the run and sketchy vs. the pass, but they’ll be missing a LOT of starters on defense. Once again, that makes it tough to project how much success the offense will have. We feel pretty good they can pound the run game with Allen vs. a depleted DL.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
The official Clemson Tigers website reminds us that Clemson holds the NCAA record for most consecutive years with a postseason win (14!). Can they make it 15?
Penn State has one of the best long‑term bowl game records in the country (33‑21‑2).
There are so many players missing on both teams that we won’t bother breaking down the net YPP margins. Penn State has taken down two bowl squads (FIU, Nebraska). Clemson has also disposed of two fellow bowlers (Troy, LUA‑VUH).
The weather looks pretty good for late December in the Bronx. There’s a 50% chance of a rain/snow mix according to the long‑range forecast, but temps will be manageable in the 40s.
Summary
This is obviously a tough nut to crack. The ‘under’ is a bit intriguing but there are so many key defensive players out that you just never know.
Conclusion
No leanage for now.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.