posted December 26
Pop-Tarts Bowl – Georgia Tech vs BYU
The Game
Frosted Blueberry. The best Pop-Tarts flavor. It’s not debatable.
And…..Back to the game.
BYU (11–2) started the season like a HOUSAFIRE at 8–0, but the streak finally ended when they traveled to mighty Texas Tech. The Red Raiders also got the better of the Cougars in the Big 12 Championship Game, and BYU missed out on a CFP berth by a whisker. Still, it was another highly successful regular season, and note that BYU has now clinched their second consecutive double‑digit win campaign.
Georgia Tech (9–3) also opened the season with a bang, ripping off eight straight wins before hitting turbulence down the stretch. The Yellow Jackets managed to win only one of their final four contests.
The Details
BYU -4 Georgia Tech (56)
MEGALOCKS LINE – BYU -3.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: BYU 30 Georgia Tech 26
BYU offense vs Georgia Tech defense
It’s been a lot of fun watching true freshman QB Bear Bachmeier run the show this season, and he’s done it with both his arm (64%, 14–6 TD‑to‑INT) and his legs (527 yards, 11 TD). The bad news for BYU is that star RB LJ Martin — an excellent PARTNER IN CRIME (1,305 yards, 12 TD) — will miss this game due to injury, and they’ll also be without backup RB Sione Moa.
The good news? It appears the Cougars will have all three of their excellent THROW GAME targets available, including the speedy Parker Kingston (848 yards, 5 TD). That’s a big boost for the offense.
BYU’s attack should enjoy the matchup against a Georgia Tech defense that’s struggled all season (#93 FBS run D, #93 pass efficiency D), though it’s worth noting the Yellow Jackets did manage to hold Georgia in check in the regular‑season finale (L 16–9).
Georgia Tech offense vs BYU defense
We’ve got one more game to enjoy the brilliance of QB Haynes King (2,700 pass yards, 12 TD; 922 rush yards, 15 TD), and the Cougars are definitely gonna have their hands full. It’s not widely known, but the Yellow Jackets do a terrific job both on the ground (#19) and through the air (#28). It appears the talented 1–2 RB punch of Malachi Hosley and Jamal Haynes — who’ve combined for over 1,100 yards and 12 TDs — will both be rolling in this one.
Georgia Tech also spreads the ball around extremely well in the THROW GAME, with six players topping 200 receiving yards. Injuries and quitting may trim that number by a body or two, but King is an experienced QB who can make it work with whatever he’s got.
BYU counters with a stingy defense that’s absolutely capable of giving Georgia Tech problems. The Cougars sit at #32 vs the run and #25 in pass‑efficiency defense, and it appears they’ll have close to a full contingent of personnel available for this matchup.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
BYU HC Kalani Sitake is one of the most underrated head coaches around, and he’s 5-2 in bowl games. Georgia Tech HC Brent Key is 1-1 in bowl events.
Georgia Tech is +1.22 in net YPP margin vs the #57 schedule. BYU is +0.87 vs the #34 list of assignments.
Summary
This is a very difficult game to call. We firmly believe BYU is the better team, but it’s fair to wonder how the Cougars will function on offense without their top two RBs. It’s also true that Georgia Tech QB Haynes King is the best player in this matchup, and that alone keeps the Jackets live. We’ve got it lined pretty much right at market.
Conclusion
No play on this game.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.