Mia
CFP – Round Two – Cotton Bowl – Miami vs Ohio St
posted December 26
The Game
Believe it.
YOUR Miami Hurricanes (11–2) are off to the CFP Quarterfinals after they SHOCKED the WORLD and slithered past Texas A&M (W 10–3) on the road in Round One. The Canes were outgained in that affair, but they were +2 in turnover margin and made the plays they needed in the final stages of the fourth quarter. Now they’ve got a nasty matchup waiting for them on New Year’s Eve as they face the mighty Ohio State Buckeyes (12–1), whose only loss came in the Big Ten Championship Game vs. Indiana (L 13–10).
The Details
Ohio St -9.5 Miami (42.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Ohio St -8.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Ohio St 26 Miami 16.5
Ohio St offense vs Miami defense
The Buckeyes are led by one of the most accurate QBs in college football in Julian Sayin (78%, 31–6 TD‑to‑INT), and he’s got the best WR duo in the nation working for him in Jeremiah Smith (1,086 yards, 11 TD) and Carnell Tate (838 yards, 17.5 YPC, 9 TD). And don’t sleep on TE Max Clare, who benefits from all the attention the WRs draw and quietly racks up production (43–448–2). RB Bo Jackson has emerged as a legit #1 back (1,035 yards, 6.2 YPC, 5 TD), and he’s also caught 19 balls out of the backfield. Ohio State has only allowed 11 (!) sacks all year (#6 FBS), but Indiana got FIVE of those in the Big Ten title game. Miami has one of the best DLs in the country and just booked a ridiculous seven (!) sacks vs. Texas A&M in last week’s win. Overall, Miami sits #4 in the FBS with 41 sacks.
The Hurricanes are very stout vs. the run (87 YPG, #7), and they didn’t allow the Aggies to get anything going on the ground. The Buckeyes have had some success running against strong run defenses since the opening‑week battle with Texas, and they managed to rumble for 186 rushing yards at Michigan. However, that took a ton of work (47 carries, 4.0 YPC), and Miami’s run defense is on another level compared to the Wolverines.
Miami’s secondary is much improved from last year’s disaster (#30 pass efficiency D), and they boast a spicy 11–14 TD‑to‑INT ratio. They shut down a very good Texas A&M THROW GAME last week, though the brisk winds certainly helped their cause. Nobody can completely shut down the Ohio State aerial assault, but Indiana showed you can keep them under control (10 points) if you can consistently pressure the QB. Miami is well‑equipped to do exactly that.
Miami offense vs Ohio St defense
Miami likes to run the football and establish their dominance up front, but they haven’t exactly been a machine on the ground this year (152 YPG, #76). They kept at it vs. Texas A&M last week and finally popped a big run in the fourth quarter. Their overall rushing numbers looked good (175 yards, 6.3 YPC), but the 56‑yard burst by RB Marc Fletcher certainly juiced the totals. Fletcher (587 yards, 5.4 YPC, 10 TD) will need to deliver another excellent performance if the Canes are going to pull the upset, but Ohio State has been fantastic vs. the run (85 YPG, #5) and has held nine of twelve opponents to under 100 rushing yards. Indiana had a bit of success (118 yards, 3.5 YPC), but any way you slice it, Miami is going to have trouble moving the ball on the ground.
And that leaves it up to your boy Carson Beck (75%, 26–10 TD‑to‑INT), who is a very accurate specimen when kept clean in the pocket, but he’s also someone who can be forced into mistakes. He didn’t do anything special vs. Texas A&M, but he avoided the bonehead plays. Ohio State held Indiana and their Heisman‑winning QB mostly in check outside of a few deep shots, and they’ve been phenomenal vs. the pass this season (#1 pass efficiency D, 6–8 TD‑to‑INT, 60% completions, 5.3 YPA!). Miami’s star WR Malachi Toney is a nightmare matchup for any defense (89–992–8), but the Aggies held him to 22 yards on five catches last week. The rest of Miami’s WR/TE weaponry isn’t overly dangerous, so it’s also going to be a challenge for the Canes to move the ball through the air. Ohio State brings a dangerous pass rush (33 sacks, #22), but Miami’s OL is elite in pass protection (13 sacks allowed, #11). That matchup is going to be fun to watch, yo.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Ohio State is +2.74 (!) in net YPP margin vs. the #23 schedule. Miami sits at +1.78 vs. the #21 docket.
The Buckeyes have had some extra time off, but last year the general trend was that the well‑rested teams came out a bit slow. Then again, the home teams were fantastic in Round One last season… but Oklahoma and Texas A&M SHAT the BED this year, so who knows what to make of that angle.
This matchup will remind some folks (like us) of the 2002 BCS National Championship Game (Jan. 3, 2003), when Ohio State snuck past Miami in double OT (W 31–24) to win all the marbles. It’s been a steady path downhill from there for the Miami football program.
Ohio State is 10–3 ATS, while Miami checks in at 8–5 vs. the number.
Summary
There’s no doubt Miami’s defense can keep them in this game, but how are they gonna score on the #1 defense in college football — a unit that hasn’t allowed more than 16 (!) points all season? Only three teams have even cracked double digits. Then again, it’s not like Ohio State has lit it up against the better stop units they’ve faced. We’ll take a pass for now, but may circle back to this one as we get closer to gameday. We’ll also check out the player prop markets.
Conclusion
No leanage for now.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.