posted December 28
Duke’s Mayo Bowl – Wake Forest vs Mississippi St
The Game
Let’s check out the last non‑CFP bowl time slot and get ready for the MAYO BOWL, bay‑bee.
Mississippi State (5–7) won just a single game in SEC play (Arkansas), but they came agonizingly close to stealing a few others (Tennessee, Florida, Texas), and that makes them dangerous in this spot. The Bulldogs only managed five wins but still earned a bowl bid after several teams quit on bowl season. Not Mississippi State.
Wake Forest (8–4) has been one of the scrappiest teams in the country in year one of the Jake Dickert era, and they’ve TURNED THAT FROWN UPSIDE DOWN. The Demon Deacons have already hit eight wins after finishing 4–8 in each of the previous two campaigns.
The Details
Mississippi St -3 Wake Forest (54)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Mississippi St -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Mississippi St 28.5 Wake Forest 25.5
Mississippi St offense vs Wake Forest defense
The Bulldogs have done a decent job on offense vs a tough schedule (30.5 PPG, #43; 398 YPG, #57), and they’ll be riding with backup QB Kamario Taylor in this event. Taylor is a true freshman, but he’s a very talented dual‑threat specimen (4–1 TD‑to‑INT, 395 rushing yards, 7 TD), and he gives this offense a different kind of juice.
We probably won’t hear the full quitting/opt‑out picture until close to kickoff, but right now it appears the Bulldogs will have enough weaponry at RB/WR/TE to be dangerous in this contest, including RB FLUFF Bothwell (639 yards, 6 TD) and WR Brenen Thompson (948 yards, 6 TD).
Wake Forest will likely have a few key guys miss the game, but it’s important to note they’re well‑coached and have played solid defense all season (#30 run D, #17 pass‑efficiency D).
Wake Forest offense vs Mississippi St defense
The defense has carried the Demon Deacons this season, but star RB Demond Claiborne (907 yards, 10 TD) was the team MVP. Claiborne will be “preparing for the NFL Draft” and is almost certainly not playing in this game, and the depth behind him at RB is unproven. We presume Robby Ashford will get the start at QB, and while he’s not a great passer (9–7 TD‑to‑INT), he’s a very effective runner (504 yards, 7 TD). Six different players have 200+ receiving yards, which makes their THROW GAME tricky to defend at times, even if they don’t have any brand‑name doods.
Wake Forest will be glad to know the Bulldogs struggled mightily on defense during the regular season (#118 run D, #67 pass‑efficiency D, #104 sacks), and it’s hard to know how many starters will be missing from Mississippi State’s stop unit. So at the very least, the Wake Forest offense will have a fighting chance in this game.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Mississippi State hasn’t appeared in a bowl game since the 2022 ReliaQuest Bowl when they took down Illinois.
Wake Forest also last appeared in a bowl in 2022, knocking off Missouri in the Gasparilla Bowl. HC Jake Dickert was 0–2 in bowl games with Washington State.
Mississippi State is –0.40 in net YPP margin vs the #11 schedule (!). They’ve taken down two bowl teams (Arizona State, Southern Miss). Note that those two wins came back-to-back to start the 2025 season.
Wake Forest is +1.38 (!) in net YPP margin vs the #65 docket. The Demon Deacons have beaten four bowl squads (Delaware, SMU, Virginia, Kennesaw State).
Both teams have been profitable vs the number: Wake Forest is 8–4 ATS, whilst Mississippi State is 7–4–1.
Summary
This is a tough game to call. We give Mississippi St the edge at QB, and on offense overall, but the coaching and defensive advantage goes to Wake Forest.
Conclusion
No leanage for now.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.