posted December 29
Armed Forces Bowl – Rice vs Texas St
The Game
January 2nd BOWL ACTION kicks off in Fort Worth, Texas as the Rice Owls do battle with the Texas State Bobcats.
Texas State (6–6) has been a major disappointment this year, but we give them a lot of credit for clawing their way into a bowl game. The Bobcats suffered a brutal five‑game losing streak midseason, but four of those defeats came by one score — they were right there, just couldn’t finish.
Rice (5–7) hasn’t had a winning season since… wait for it… keep waiting… 2014, when they finished 8–4 and won the Hawaii Bowl. First‑year HC Scott Abell did a pretty good job with these guys in 2025, but can they SHOCK THE WORLD in this one?
The Details
Texas St -14.5 Rice (57.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Texas St -16.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Texas St 36 Rice 21.5
Texas St offense vs Rice defense
The Bobcats have moved like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE this year (36 PPG, #13; 476 YPG, #7), showcasing fantastic balance (#11 rush, #37 pass). You never know who might quit before kickoff, but the offense looks almost completely intact heading into the Armed Forces Bowl. QB Brad Jackson has thrown for over 3,000 yards (18–7 TD‑to‑INT), and while the WR corps isn’t deep, the Bobcats boast an excellent duo in Beau Sparks (1,113 yards, 9 TD) and Chris Dawn Jr. (931 yards, 2 TD). And don’t sleep on that rushing attack.
RB Lincoln Pare leads the way with over 1,000 yards (12 TD), and note that QB Brad Jackson has chipped in 692 yards and 16 (!!) scores. The Owls haven’t been a disaster vs the run (157 YPG, #81), but they’ve really struggled vs the pass (#123 pass‑efficiency D). Also worth noting: Rice has only booked 3 (!) INTs this season — the second‑fewest in college football.
Yup, Texas State will be able to do some damage.
Rice offense vs Texas St defense
It could be a long afternoon for HOOT HOOT, as their offense is the polar opposite of what Texas State brings to the table (#119 scoring offense, #123 total offense), and they’ll be without mobile starting QB Chase Jenkins in this game. Jenkins didn’t do much through the air, but he was efficient when he decided to chuck it, and he was a very good runner.
It looks as if true freshman QB Patrick Crayton will get the start, and he’s only attempted six passes this year — and been sacked twice. Rice has enough RBs that they should be able to run it a bit vs the SOFT UNDERBELLY of the Texas State defense (#96), but we don’t expect much at all through the air.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
As noted earlier, Rice hasn’t played in a bowl game since they won the Hawaii Bowl back in 2014. They got the invite this year (5–7) thanks to a bunch of teams bailing on bowl season.
Texas State is 2–0 in bowl games, both under HC G.J. Kinne. Fun fact: Texas State won the 2023 First Responder Bowl vs… Rice (45–21).
Rice is –1.65 (!) in net YPP margin vs the #85 schedule. HOOT HOOT has taken down two bowl teams (Louisiana, UConn).
Texas State is +1.01 in net YPP margin vs the #101 schedule. The Bobcats have also beaten two fellow bowlers (Southern Miss, UTSA).
Neither team has been a friend to bettors. Texas State is 4–8 ATS, while Rice is 5–7 ATS.
Summary
It’s not easy laying this kind of lumber in bowl season, but the Bobcats should be able to win comfortably. There’s always the risk that some key players could quit before kickoff, but as long as they’ve got the majority of their skill‑position doods, they should be fine. Rice allowed 50+ in each of their last two games.
Conclusion
Lean – Texas St -14.5
Consensus is -14.5.
Posted 4:07pm Dec 29
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.