posted December 30
ReliaQuest Bowl – Iowa vs Vanderbilt
The Game
We’ve got some SWEET Big Ten vs SEC ACTION down in Tampa on New Year’s Eve as the Iowa Hawkeyes look to upend the mighty Vanderbilt Commodores and star QB Diego Pavia.
Vanderbilt (10–2) was must‑see TV this season, playing an exciting brand of football from wire to wire. They came very close to making the CFP, and their only losses came on the road vs Texas and ROLL TIDE.
Iowa (8–4) has been your typical “Iowa” squad this year, grinding their way to the brink of double‑digit wins. The Hawkeyes almost SHOCKED THE WORLD when they battled Oregon at home, but they fell short by a whisker (L 18–16).
The Details
Vanderbilt -5.5 Iowa (46.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Vanderbilt -4
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Vanderbilt 26 Iowa 20.5
Vanderbilt offense vs Iowa defense
The Commodores were an explosive bunch during the regular season (469 YPG, #12 FBS; 39 PPG, #8), thanks in large part to the outstanding work of QB Diego Pavia (3,192 yards, 27–8 TD‑to‑INT; 826 rush yards, 9 TD). Pavia has a pair of 600+ yard WRs (Richardson, Sherrill) and a TE/WE hybrid in Eli Stowers who’ll definitely be playing on Sundays (62 catches, 769 yards, 4 TD).
Vanderbilt can also run it (186 YPG, #32), primarily through Pavia’s legs and RB Sedrick Alexander, so Iowa will have their hands full. The Hawkeyes have been stingy as usual — #20 vs the run, #7 vs the pass — and they’ve allowed just seven (!!) TD passes all season (#2 FBS).
Vanderbilt is a very explosive outfit (#14 in 40+ yard plays), but Iowa does a terrific job preventing big plays (#4 in 40+ yard plays allowed). Quite the chess match, yo.
Iowa offense vs Vanderbilt defense
The preseason expectations were high for starting QB Mark Gronowski, but he’s definitely been a disappointment thus far (63%, 8–6 TD‑to‑INT). The good news is he’s a very tough runner (491 yards, 15 TD!) which makes him a great fit for the grind‑it‑out Iowa offense. They’ve got a talented set of RBs led by Kamari Moulton (783 yards, 5.0 YPC, 4 TD), but they’ll need to be at their best against a very stout Vanderbilt run defense (103 YPG, #15).
The Commodores can be beaten through the air (#121 pass defense), but the Iowa THROW GAME is pretty disgusting (#131)(!). Nobody on the roster has even reached the 300‑yard plateau in receiving yards. Iowa’s only shot in this game is to pound the rock behind a great offensive line and hit a deep shot or three. Unlikely, but definitely not impossible.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Iowa has lost their last two bowl games, and HC Kirk Ferentz is 10-11 in bowl action.
Vanderbilt won the Birmingham Bowl last year, and that was their first bowl victory since the 2013 Compass Bowl.
Iowa is +0.65 in net YPP margin vs the #19 docket. Their best wins came against Penn St (H), Minnesota (H), and Nebraska (A).
Vanderbilt has a burgeoning +2.07 net YPP margin vs the #24 schedule. The Commodores’ premier wins came against LSU (H), Missouri (H), and Tennessee (A).
These two squads are a combined 18-5-1 (!) vs the spread (Iowa 9-3, Vanderbilt 9-2-1). Cash money, yo.
Summary
This is one of the small handful of bowl games that should, as of what we know right now, feature two rosters that look essentially the same as they would during the regular season. We’re tempted to take the Hawkeyes, but can they SCORE the FOOTBALL against a Vanderbilt team that doesn’t give up much on the ground?
Conclusion
No leanage for now.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.