Indiana at Ohio St – Preview and Prediction
OHIO ST 29 INDIANA (59)
Implied Projected Score: Ohio St 44 Indiana 15
MEGALOCKS LINE – Ohio St -26
The Game
Ohio St continues their Big 10 schedule this week with a meeting vs the Indiana Hoosiers at home on Saturday. The Buckeyes started their conference slate with a 58-0 drubbing of Rutgers. Meanwhile, Indiana has started off the season 3-1, with their only loss being a home upset at the hands of Wake Forest. Do not sleep on these Hoosiers.
The Match-Up
Ohio St offense vs Indiana defense
The Buckeyes have ripped up and destroyed everything in their path. While there is a legitimate argument to be made that the schedule has been light (Bowling Green, Tulsa, Rutgers) they also won quite handily on the road at Oklahoma. And their combined winning margin is 228-37. JT Barrett is having a Heisman-worthy start to the season with 14 TD passes and only 2 INT. Barrett also has over 200 yards rushing and 3 TDs in only four games. RB Mike Weber and “Slash” Curtis Samuel are both averaging over 7 yards per carry.
Indiana is playing better on defense this season but have played FIU, Ball St, Wake and Sparty. Those offenses pale in comparison to the group they will face on Saturday. Our biggest concern is the lack of PENETRATION so far by the Indiana defense as they are ranked in the bottom two in conference in both sacks and tackles for loss per game. And we also know that Ohio St is not going to give you much in the way of turnovers.
Indiana offense vs Ohio St defense
MEGALOCKS BIG 10 INSIDERS (we are not sure WHAT they are inside) alerted us to the potential of QB Richard Lagow during the summer. Lagow has made some mistakes but has led the Hoosiers to a 3-1 record while throwing 9 TD passes and completing well over 60% of his passes. Ohio St has the #1 (!!) pass efficiency defense in the FBS so he will have his work cut out for him. What we do like about this match-up is that the Hoosiers also feature a fine ground attack with Devine Redding well on his way to a SECOND straight 1,000 yard season. If the Hoosiers can mix it up and stay out of a a ton of 3rd and long situations they have a chance to stay in this game into the 2nd half.
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
The past two seasons Ohio St has struggled (relatively speaking) with the Hoosiers winning 34-27 and 42-27…..TREND GUY is perplexed looking at this total because the Hoosiers are 40-18-1 L59 to the over while Ohio St is 11-5 L16 to the under…..Ohio St has Wisconsin on deck.
Summary
This is yet another game on the card that seems to be pretty accurately lined. We do give a slight edge to the Hoosiers catching a ton of points because they have a balanced offense and may have a defense that is better than advertised. They have also shown a recent ability to stick with the Buckeyes for long stretches at a time.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Lean: Indiana at +28 or better for small potatoes.