MTSU Blue Raiders 2026 College Football Preview
Posted June 3, 2026
2025 Recap
Record – 3-9
ATS – 6-6
“Sheeeee-it”.
<Senator Clay Davis> <The Wire, 2002>
A disappointing year in Murfreesboro — again. The Blue Raiders started a brutal 1-9 before salvaging a shred of dignity by winning their final two games, which at least showed they didn’t quit on the season. Four consecutive one-score losses midseason was the KICK IN THE JACOBS that derailed any hope of bowl eligibility and left MEGALOCKS Season Win Total Club members staring at the ceiling at 3am.
HC Derek Mason enters year three with a 6-18 record and his MAN BITS are firmly on the HOT SEAT.
MTSU Blue Raiders 2026 Outlook
OFFENSE
2025 By The Numbers (CUSA):
- Scoring: 22.4 PPG (#10 CUSA)
- Total Offense: 371.6 YPG (#8 CUSA)
- Rushing: 105.5 YPG (#11 CUSA)
- Passing: 266.1 YPG (#4 CUSA)
- Sacks Allowed: 30 (#9 CUSA)
The great news heading into 2026 is that MTSU appears to have a genuine star in the making at QB. Roman Gagliano looked fantastic in his first taste of action — 58% completion rate, 7-0 TD to INT ratio, and 2 rushing TDs. New OC Anthony Scelfo arrives from Southeastern Louisiana, where he served as offensive coordinator the past two seasons. While his offense featured spread principles and some tempo, it was more balanced and efficient than a pure up-tempo spread attack. The hope is that his quarterback-friendly system can help unlock Gagliano’s dual-threat ability relatively quickly.
The RB situation is a bit of a mixed bag. The good news — #2 RB DJ Taylor returns and the dood averaged an eye-popping 7.7 YPC LY. The bad news — and it’s significant — star Jakail Middlebrook (752 yards, 5.4 YPC, 4 TD rushing; 40-412, 3 TD receiving) is off to Virginia and he was essentially the only proven offensive weapon on the entire roster. Antonio Martin arrives from Kansas St with legit pedigree — he put up over 1,200 yards at FCS SE Louisiana in 2024 before not getting much run with the Wildcats LY — and could be a genuine difference-maker on the drop in class.
The WR room looks very underrated according to our MTSU INSIDERS. Cam’Ron Lacy led the team in receiving LY (38-549, 14.4, 3 TD) and provides a reliable returning option. Potentially SPICY transfer additions include Hogan Wasson — a Division II All-American at Central Missouri (85-1,009, 6 TD LY) — and Markus Allen who had a big year at Eastern Michigan in 2024 before not getting runway at Mississippi State in 2025.
The OL is the biggest obstacle between this offense and genuine productivity. They were second-last in CUSA in rushing LY and #9 in sacks allowed. The rebuild is portal-heavy and includes a literally YUUUGE addition in 6-7, 383-pound guard Reese Tripp from Minnesota. Chris Moreno brings leadership and experience after starting 21 consecutive games at Monmouth. Several high school signees will likely redshirt and develop. The ceiling on this offense is high — it all depends on how quickly that OL can gel.
DEFENSE
2025 By The Numbers (CUSA):
- Scoring Defense: 30.9 PPG (#10 CUSA)
- Total Defense: 399.3 YPG (#6 CUSA)
- Rush Defense: 143.1 YPG (#2 CUSA)
- Pass Defense: 256.2 YPG (#11 CUSA)
- Sacks: 24 (#6 CUSA)
There’s a fascinating split in those numbers — the run defense was actually respectable at #2 in CUSA for a 3-9 team, but the pass defense was an absolute FIASCO. Dead last in the entire FBS in TD passes allowed (31) — that is a horrifying number and the #1 reason they lost so many close games. Fixing the secondary is the single most important task facing the defensive staff.
The DL loses all three starters up front but the transfers look intriguing — DE Trashun Griffin (Troy) and beefy DT Justin Bodford (Missouri) will mix with holdovers like DT Zeion Simpson-Smith to form an entirely new front. The LB unit has potential — Reggie Johnson (3 sacks) returns and Jackson St transfer Ashton Taylor who was dominant with the Tigers LY (10 TFL, 2 FF) adds an exciting new piece alongside him.
The secondary is the critical rebuild project. Safety Kalen Woods (10 starts LY) provides some returning experience and former Washington Husky CB Dyson McCutcheon — who missed all of 2025 due to injury — could be a SIGNIFICANT addition if healthy. The ceiling on this secondary is meaningfully higher than what we saw LY — it couldn’t really get any worse, yo — and incremental improvement should be expected.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Punter Ashton Logan is one of the best in the conference (44.7) and a legit weapon. Dominic Bourgeois from somewhere called Susquehanna University gets the first crack at the PK role taking over from reliable Jacob Hathaway (11/14 FG LY).
Schedule Analysis
Overall — Only one automatic loss in non-conference action at Kansas. The last two games of the season are very winnable (at Sam Houston, New Mexico St) which could be a lifeline if they need wins in November to reach bowl eligibility. They’ve got a pair of nasty CUSA road assignments — at Liberty and at Jacksonville St.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot — at Liberty (Nov 14)
This is a tough challenge on multiple levels — the Blue Raiders come off the 100 MILES OF HATE rivalry game with Western Kentucky and now have to make the trip to Lynchburg to face the Flames. It’s really tough to play in Williams Stadium under any circumstances and if the season has gone sideways by this point it’s hard to imagine MTSU bringing maximum effort on the road against one of the better teams in the conference. Tread carefully backing the road underdog here.
Season Win Total
Market consensus – June 3
Over 3.5 -160
Under 3.5 +125
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over
Can we possibly go back to the well? The reality is that they’ll start 1–0 after taking care of Murray St, and while the road docket is a bear, we think they’ll scrape together enough wins to hit the over during league play.
Note – Our official list of season win total investments will be posted in the blog section of the website.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The legendary Rick Stockstill coached the Blue Raiders for 18 seasons and led them to TEN bowl games between 2006 and 2023. Under his watch, MTSU was a steady middle‑tier Group of Six program that enjoyed regular postseason access and rarely bottomed out.
MTSU’s mascot is a blue winged horse named LIGHTNING, which symbolizes the university’s strong aerospace program and the region’s heritage in the Tennessee Walking Horse industry. Before landing on their current mascot, MTSU went through a truly inspired series of choices. For a while, they used Confederate General Nathan Bedford Forrest as their symbol. Then in the mid‑’70s, they briefly tried a live Tennessee Walking Horse named WINK’S CHOICE… which didn’t exactly thrive trying to navigate a football track. Lightning finally showed up in 1998, and everyone collectively decided that maybe a flying blue horse was the least problematic option.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
We’re looking forward to seeing this team hit the field. The offense has real upside if Gagliano takes the leap and the OL comes together — and the WR room might be sneaky good. The pass defense has to improve or no amount of offensive fireworks will get them to a bowl game. HC Mason is on the hot seat and he knows it — this is very much a prove‑it season.
We think they’ll exceed last year’s win total, but it would be a bit of a surprise if they found their way into bowl season. Let’s hope the new pieces come together quickly for the men from Murfreesboro.
M‑T‑S‑U! Go Raiders Go!