Buffalo Bulls 2026 College Football Preview
Posted June 14, 2026
2025 Recap
Record – 5-7
ATS – 5-7
A disappointment in Year Two of the Pete Lembo era.
The Bulls went 4–4 in MAC play, which sounds respectable on paper, but the reality is they squeezed out one‑score wins over Kent State, Eastern Michigan, and UMass (!) before losing FOUR of their final five to miss the bowl cutoff. The best win of the year was a home blowout over Bowling Green — and that’s not exactly the kind of résumé that gets you into December.
There’s a lot of work to do heading into Year Three, but the pieces are there for a bounce‑back campaign.
Buffalo Bulls 2026 Outlook
OFFENSE
2025 By The Numbers (MAC):
- Scoring: 24.0 PPG (#5 MAC)
- Total Offense: 361.3 YPG (#4 MAC)
- Rushing: 132.3 YPG (#10 MAC)
- Passing: 229.0 YPG (#3 MAC)
- Sacks Allowed: 23 (#5 MAC)
Those numbers were actually quite respectable — top five in the MAC in scoring, total offense, and passing — but their inability to run the football was a killer.
The most important change heading into 2026 is at quarterback, and it’s a welcome one. Ta’Quan Roberson posted a mediocre 17‑12 TD‑INT mark last year, and getting a fresh face under center was clearly necessary. New OC Tony Tokarz — arriving from Florida State where he coached QBs — inherits an intriguing battle. The frontrunner is Elijah Holmes, a Wingate transfer who was FILTHY at the DII level (3,040 yards, 24 TD, just 6 INT, plus 290 rushing yards and 3 TD). That’s a notable upgrade and gives the offense a legitimate dual‑threat dimension. Redshirt freshman Jason Wright and Jason Cumbie provide depth.
The RB corps needs a clear leader to emerge after losing workhorse Al‑Jay Henderson (750 yards, 6 TD) — the only Bull with more than 250 rushing yards last year. A committee approach may be in the cards: good depth, no clear top‑end option. Last season’s RB2 Terrance Shelton (5‑11, 213) will get the first crack at setting the tone.
The THROW GAME took a massive hit — #1 WR Nik McMillan (First Team All‑MAC, nearly 1,000 yards) is off to Kansas, and #2 Victor Snow (800+ yards, PR specialist) followed him to NC State. That’s a YUUUGE loss of production. Jasaiah Gathings provides some possession‑receiver continuity, while sophomores Patrick Clacks III and redshirt freshman Dwayne Early Jr. are among the unproven youngsters battling for bigger roles. Overall, we’re underwhelmed by the air‑attack weaponry.
Up front, the offensive line lost five of its top six contributors, which is alarming — and the unit has fewer than a dozen FBS starts combined. The good news: senior guard Alex Heininger is a quality interior piece, and the Bulls grabbed several useful portal bodies, including Baylor transfer Joe Crocker (6‑6, 339), who brings impressive dimensions. We’re cautiously optimistic about the front based on the pedigree added during the offseason, but it may take time to gel.
DEFENSE
2025 By The Numbers (MAC):
- Scoring Defense: 23.5 PPG (#5 MAC)
- Total Defense: 343.6 YPG (#5 MAC)
- Rush Defense: 157.2 YPG (#8 MAC)
- Pass Defense: 184.5 YPG (#5 MAC)
- Sacks: 36 (#4 MAC)
Those are strong defensive numbers — top five in the MAC in scoring defense, total defense, and pass defense — and this stop unit should remain a legitimate team strength despite significant turnover. The biggest challenge is replacing key production at every level. Linebacker Red Murdock, who posted a ridiculous 142 tackles and 5 sacks last season before being drafted, is gone. Dion Crawford, the team’s #2 tackler, followed him out the door to Michigan St, and promising corner Jalen McNair transferred to Virginia.
The secondary remains the clear strength of the defense. Nickel SaVeon Brown is a steady piece, and corner Kobi Blackwell flashed ability in a limited role as a freshman. The pass rush, however, needs to be rebuilt from the ground up. The most experienced options are coming from Division II — Sedrick Vessah (California, PA) and Logan Goodwin (IUP) — who combined for nearly 20 sacks last season. The high-upside wildcard is four-star Ohio EDGE Malachi Ervin. If he’s ready to contribute early, the ceiling of the pass rush rises significantly.
At linebacker, Buffalo added Zach Bergmann (Missouri Southern St), who recorded 100 tackles last season, and Joey Cheshire from Cornell. Both will be asked to help fill the massive void left by Murdock and Crawford. There are a lot of new faces, but the talent level across the defense is legitimate.
SPECIAL TEAMS
HC Pete Lembo is a special‑teams guru, but he’ll have to reload a group that finished #13 (!) in the FBS last season per the INTREPID Phil Steele. They’ve gotta replace their excellent PK/punter combo as well as quality punt returner Victor Snow. The new kicking tandem doesn’t have much experience, so this is definitely an area to monitor during fall camp.
Schedule Analysis
The first thing worth noting is that they’ve got two FCS opponents on the slate. Assuming they take care of Albany and a FINE GENTLEMAN named Robert Morris, the Bulls will need to finish 7–5 to reach a bowl game. They’ll get beheaded at Penn State, but the other non‑conference game — a trip to FIU — is absolutely winnable.
The MAC draw features the murderous trio of Western Michigan, Toledo, and Miami Ohio, which makes it very difficult to forecast any kind of MAC title push. On the bright side, the schedule sets up for a strong finish.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot — at Ball State (Nov 11)
If the Bulls lose the previous week at Miami Ohio, their MAC Championship dreams might be down the drain, making the possibility of an emotional hangover very real. And here’s a fun nugget for the DEGENERATE NATION: Buffalo is 3‑7 ATS in their last 10 regular season meetings with Ball State.
Season Win Total
Market consensus – June 14
Over 5.5 -170
Under 5.5 -140
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage
We could only fly with the over at this number, but we’re not crazy about laying that much juice. They’ll score a pair of FCS wins, and they should bank four MACtion victories, but it’s gonna be tight, yo.
Note – Our official list of season win total investments will be posted in the blog section of the website.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
ANCHOR BAR in Buffalo might have the best chicken wings on the planet, and as fate would have it, the Bulls are the closest FBS program to MEGALOCKS HQ. Translation: if you’re rolling into town for a Buffalo home game, you can crush world‑class wings and swing by for a guided tour of our homestead. Ask for the family rate, and don’t forget to check out the gift shop!
Buffalo is on a BOWL GAME HEATER, having won their last four appearances by a combined margin of 97–47.
LB Red Murdock was selected with the very last pick of the 2026 NFL Draft, officially earning the title of MR. IRRELEVANT.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
Year Three of the Pete Lembo experience should be interesting. They might’ve hit a home run with the new starting quarterback, but we’ll get a much clearer sense once fall camp is underway. We’re not crazy about the skill‑position weaponry, and the offensive line remains a work in progress. There are also holes to plug on defense and special teams, making this a roster with more questions than answers.
Big picture? The Bulls look like a clear notch below the MAC’s top two or three outfits, and the conference schedule will be tough to navigate. We’re on the fence — call it a 50/50 shot at reaching a bowl game — but you know we’ll be cheering for them every step of the way.
Let’s Go BUFF‑A‑LO!