UNLV Rebels 2026 College Football Preview
Posted June 22, 2026
2025 Recap
Record –10-4
ATS – 7-7
“It would kill some men to get so close to their dream and not touch it. God, they’d consider it a tragedy.”
<Ray Kinsella> <Field of Dreams, 1989>
The Rebels had another fine season, won ten games, and punched yet another ticket to the Mountain West Championship Game. But for the third straight year, they got as close as you can get to the SUMMIT, only to be shoved back down the mountain by Boise St. This time it was a 38–21 setback on the blue turf, another silver medal for the trophy case in the Rebels’ title‑game saga.
Do they have enough in the tank to make another run in 2026?
UNLV Rebels 2026 Outlook
OFFENSE
2025 By The Numbers (Mountain West):
- Scoring: 34.1 PPG (#1 Mountain West)
- Total Offense: 446.6 YPG (#1 Mountain West)
- Rushing: 195.5 YPG (#3 Mountain West)
- Passing: 250.9 YPG (#3 Mountain West)
- Sacks Allowed: 26 (#7 Mountain West)
The Rebels had no trouble moving the football, and only two teams managed to hold them under 30 points all year (Utah St, Boise St).
Former starting QB Anthony Colandrea was the STRAW that STIRRED the drink (23–9 TD to INT, 9 rush TD), and if only they could find a veteran QB to take over the duties. OH LOOK! Here comes oft‑maligned Jackson Arnold from Auburn, and it’ll be interesting to see how he handles the drop in class from the SEC. Arnold has shown the ability to be productive in the past with Auburn and Oklahoma (22–8 TD to INT, 12 rush TD), but he never lived up to the high expectations.
The Rebels are absolutely loaded at RB with the return of star RB1 Jai’Den Thomas (985, 12 TD, 36 receptions, TD) and backup Jaylon Glover (379, 6.1, TD). Yup — that ground attack is gonna be more dangerous than a BILL GATES KILLER TICK FARM. The situation at WR isn’t as rosy, as the Rebels lose their top three wideouts who combined for over 1,800 yards and 14 TDs in 2025. You know HC Dan Mullen and friends will find a way to squeeze productivity out of the new crop, but it’s clear they don’t have a defined WR1 heading into fall camp. Guys to keep an eye on include sophomore Kayden McGee and MTSU transfer Amorion Walker (6‑4, 180), who brings size to the table.
Things look okay up front, as the Rebels return a pair of starters accented by experienced transfer portal specimens. There’s good size across the board, and they’re solid at center and LT.
DEFENSE
2025 By The Numbers (Mountain West):
- Scoring: 28.0 PPG (#8 Mountain West)
- Total Defense: 419.9 YPG (#9 Mountain West)
- Rushing Defense: 177.4 YPG (#10 Mountain West)
- Passing Defense: 241.7 YPG (#9 Mountain West)
- Sacks: 30 (#3 Mountain West)
The defense took a major step backward last year, particularly when it came to allowing other teams to SCORE the FOOTBALL. The Rebels allowed 28 PPG after yielding just 21 PPG in 2024. There will be a lot of new faces in 2026, as seven of the top nine tacklers depart along with the vast majority of key sack producers.
We have to be honest — we’re not crazy about how things look up front. Maybe the transfer haul pans out, but there don’t appear to be many guys on the DL who can move the needle. At least sophomore DE Andre Porter has plenty of room to improve, and holdover DT Lucas Conti (6‑5, 290) can hold his own in the middle.
At LB, you don’t get better by losing #1 tackler Marsel McDuffie, but there’s a good chance Holy Cross transfer Cam Santee is a decent replacement after chalking up over 100 tackles last season with the Crusaders. There are also a few Power 4 transfers in the mix, and don’t forget the name Blesyng Alualu‑Tuiolemotu (#Scrabble), who started the majority of games LY and has definite upside in the second level.
The secondary is the strength of the defense, and there are a few potential game‑changers to talk about, including senior safety Jake Pope, who showed his SEC pedigree LY (#2 tackles, 3 TFL), and UTSA transfer CB Denver Harris, who’s athletic and talented enough to start from day one. And don’t forget TCU transfer CB Avery Helm, who started a bunch of games during his tenure with the Horned Frogs in the Rebels’ rebuilt secondary.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Rebels retain PK Ramon Villela (14/19 FG, 57/57 XP LY) but must find a replacement for punter Cam Brown, who did fine work in 2025. The return units could use some gusto.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The non-conference schedule is fair, and there are no killers on the list of assignments. However, there are a couple of teams that could trip them up, like Memphis in Week One. The conference schedule tilts toward the difficult side, as they’ve got three tough road games (New Mexico, Hawai’i, Air Force) and don’t get the privilege of drilling UTEP. Fun fact: They host Memphis on August 29 and don’t play another home game until — wait for it — October 3, when California comes to town.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at North Texas (Sept 12)
It’s a long trip from Hawaii to Denton, and a very tough set of back-to-back road games with no bye week in between.
Season Win Total
Market consensus – June 22
Over 7.5 -170
Under 7.5 +130
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over
We’re not in love with paying that much juice, but this team definitely has the talent to win eight or more games.
Note – Our official list of season win total investments will be posted in the blog section of the website.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Early on, FedEx was down to its last $5,000 — and had a $24,000 fuel bill due that would’ve grounded the entire fleet. Founder Fred Smith flew to Las Vegas, put the company’s final cash on the blackjack table, and walked away with $27,000. He wired it back just in time to keep the company alive. Smith later called the win “an omen that things would get better.” Legend has it that he came back to the same Casino many years later, put his last $100 in the DIFFERENT STROKES slots, gave Willis a yank, and turned that $100 into $230,000.
UNLV has won 30 (!) games over the past three seasons and treated us to some very exciting football. Before this three-year HEATER, the Rebels had only managed two winning seasons this century (2013 and 2000).
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
It’s been a wild ride for UNLV football fans the last few years. They’ve scored a ton of points, won a pile of games, and kept knocking on the championship door — only to fall short on the big stage in multiple consecutive tries. At least Boise St is long gone to the Pac-12, clearing one obstacle from the Rebels’ title-game path.
The offense will once again be potent, and the defense ought to be solid enough, though we’re a bit uneasy about the DL holding up over the long haul.
Even so, the Rebels have to be considered one of the favorites to make it back to the Mountain West Championship Game — right alongside New Mexico — but they’ll need to be road warriors in conference play to earn another shot at the summit.
Go Rebels!