Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors 2026 College Football Preview
Posted June 22, 2026
2025 Recap
Record – 9-4
ATS – 9-4
Yes, guy.
Hawai’i opened the campaign with a dramatic win over Stanford, and really never looked back as they finished the regular season with eight wins, and then picked up a 9th victory in the Hawai’i Bowl when they took down the communist hordes invading from California. That marked the Rainbow Warriors’ first winning season since the 2020 PLANDEMIC year when they went 5-4.
Can they take the next step and make a serious run at the Mountain West title?
Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors 2026 Outlook
OFFENSE
2025 By The Numbers (Mountain West):
- Scoring: 29.0 PPG (#5 Mountain West)
- Total Offense: 393.8 YPG (#6 Mountain West)
- Rushing: 103.2 YPG (#12 Mountain West, dead last)
- Passing: 290.6 YPG (#1 Mountain West)
- Sacks Allowed: 31 (#9 Mountain West)
HC Timmy Chang had the THROW GAME humming last season behind rising star QB Micah Alejado (66%, 3,106, 24-9 TD to INT), and we’re really excited to see if he can make the jump to superstar status in 2026.
The WR corps will be a handful for opposing secondaries given the return of Pofele Ashlock (827, 8 TD) and the addition of a small handful of Power 4 transfers. Our HAWAI’I INSIDERS are particularly intrigued by Washington transfer Audric Harris, who brings some serious built-in chemistry to the table. Harris and QB Micah Alejado were a lethal combo at Bishop Gorman High School in Las Vegas — the dood hauled in 51 catches for 1,000 yards and 13 TDs in their final season together — and now they’re reuniting in Honolulu.
RB2 Cam Barfield is back in the mix (371, 4.6, 4 TD), and they’ve got enough depth behind him to do what they need on the ground. Hawai’i will be fine up front as they can build around a pair of solid veterans in center Ethan Spencer and LT Dean Briski.
DEFENSE
2025 By The Numbers (Mountain West):
- Scoring: 24.1 PPG (#5 Mountain West)
- Total Defense: 361.0 YPG (#6 Mountain West)
- Rushing Defense: 133.9 YPG (#4 Mountain West)
- Passing Defense: 227.2 YPG (#7 Mountain West)
- Sacks: 30 (#3 Mountain West)
The defense took another step forward last year and put up some very respectable numbers, and they were particularly adept at achieving PENETRATION. It’ll be a challenge to keep that momentum going with only three of their top twelve tacklers and one of their top sack guys back for duty in 2026.
The DL could be a problem area as they lose a ton of production and experience from last year’s room, including their top two sack producers. There are some usable pieces up front such as Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina (9 TFL), but there appears to be a lack of elite talent or a true difference-maker. The LB unit should be fine, provided that Jamih Otis (#3 tackles) is healthy and ready to go for the start of the season. The starting group in the secondary has a legit piece to build around in NB Elijah Palmer, who filled up the box scores LY (6.5 TFL, 10 PBU), and there are quality transfer portal specimens added to the mix.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Ruh Roh.
Hawai’i was excellent on special teams last year but is losing all of its key pieces, including star PK Kansei Matsuzawa (27/29 FG!), who was the first (!) consensus first-team All-American in program history. They’ll be taking a step backward on special teams this year.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – We LIKEY LIKEY. They’ve got a great chance of booking three wins in non-conference action, with the only really tough spot being the trip to Tempe to battle Arizona St. We also like that they’ve got two bye weeks and the schedule is spaced out nicely in chunks (3-5-4). They miss Air Force in Mountain West action and get to host UNLV and New Mexico. This is a schedule DRESSED for SUCCESS, yo.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Northern Illinois (Oct 24)
We don’t expect much from the Huskies this year, but Hawai’i will have to travel over 4,000 miles up to DeKalb without the benefit of a bye week.
Season Win Total
Market consensus – June 22
Over 7.5 +110
Under 7.5 -140
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage.
Our gun to the head selection would be the over, but there’s probably more value to be had in the futures market on a conference title. More on that during the summer.
Note – Our official list of season win total investments will be posted in the blog section of the website.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The “Rainbow” nickname dates back to 1923, when a rainbow appeared over Moʻiliʻili Field during a 7–0 upset win over Oregon St. Local sportswriters started calling the team the Rainbows — and the name stuck. Right after that, Hawai’i went undefeated in both 1924 and 1925, outscoring opponents 606-29 over 18 games. Call it coincidence if you want, but that’s one heck of a rainbow‑powered RAMPAGE, bay-bee.
Hawai’i has been a fantastic 22-11-3 ATS (66%) as a home underdog over the L10Y, including 3-0 in 2025.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
Hawai‘i is coming off a fine season and looks poised to repeat that success in 2026. They’ve got an excellent QB who knows the system inside and out, and the schedule will keep them right in thick of the Mountain West race. There are a few red flags — namely a defense that’s likely to be a bit more generous to opposing offenses, and a rebuilt special teams unit that could go from a strength to a weakness.
Even so, we’ve got Hawai‘i firmly in the “live longshot” category to win a very competitive Mountain West.
And as they say on the islands… “Go Warriors! Fight on for old Hawai‘i Nei!”