Boise St Broncos 2026 College Football Preview
Posted June 23, 2026
2025 Recap
Record – 9-5
ATS – 6-7-1
“Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things.”
<Andy Dufresne> <The Shawshank Redemption, 1994>
Boise St lived that line in 2025. They didn’t look like a championship squad when they got drilled at USF in the opener, and they even dropped a pair of Mountain West games midseason by a combined score of 47–14. But they kept fighting — because hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things.
You’d think the MAC was running the league the way Boise St backed into the title game, emerging from a four‑way tie like a BIG PHARMA company that got blanket immunity from the carnage of the DEATH JAB. But once they got there, they mopped the floor with UNLV yet again, securing their third straight Mountain West championship and adding another chapter to their dynasty run.
Now they’re off to the remodeled PAC‑12, a new neighborhood with new problems and new prey. The only question left is simple: can Boise State just keep on DOMINATING as they enter the 2026 PAC‑12 gauntlet.
Boise St Broncos 2026 Outlook
OFFENSE
2025 By The Numbers (Mountain West):
- Scoring: 29.9 PPG (#3 Mountain West)
- Total Offense: 424.0 YPG (#2 Mountain West)
- Rushing: 179.1 YPG (#4 Mountain West)
- Passing: 244.9 YPG (#5 Mountain West)
- Sacks Allowed: 26 (#7 Mountain West)
The Broncos weren’t a JUGGERNAUT on offense last season, but they were plenty potent. They bring back QB Maddux Madsen for one more spin, and he’s coming off a good — but not great — campaign (58%, 18–9 TD to INT). Backup Max Cutforth had his ups and downs (57%, 4–5 TD to INT) and provides adequate insurance if things get weird.
The real fireworks come from the absolutely DEVASTATING 1–2 punch at RB of Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines, who combined for over 1,900 yards and 18 TDs in 2025. That’s elite production, and it gives the offense a rock‑solid identity.
It’s not such a rosy situation in the THROW GAME, as Boise St moves on without their top four pass-catching weapons. The good news? The cupboard isn’t bare — it’s stocked with intriguing pieces ready to step up. We expect good things from WR Cameron Bates (15.5 YPC), TE Matt Wagner, and a hopefully healthy WR Ben Ford (325 yards, 5 TDs), all of whom should help things work.
Things are rock‑solid up front with the return of three starters, and let’s face it — this is Boise St.
DEFENSE
2025 By The Numbers (Mountain West):
- Scoring: 24.1 PPG (#5 Mountain West)
- Total Defense: 337.6 YPG (#3 Mountain West)
- Rushing Defense: 162.1 YPG (#8 Mountain West)
- Passing Defense: 175.6 YPG (#4 Mountain West)
- Sacks: 27 (#6 Mountain West)
The defense wasn’t up to the typical standards for this program, but they still won a Mountain West title. Only one of their top five tacklers is back for duty, but there are still some nice pieces sprinkled throughout the stop unit.
The DL has a few guys worth talking about. DE Jayden Virgin-Morgan is coming off an excellent campaign (6 sacks, 13 TFL), while DE Max Stege has the potential to be a true menace on the other end of the line (7 TFL). Oh yeah, and they’ve got GIRTH on the inside. That said, the only thing that gives us pause is that the Broncos haven’t been that great defending the run in a number of years — 144 YPG on average since the 2020 PLANDEMIC season.
The LB group should be steady with the return of Boen Phillips and some interesting transfer portal additions. The bigger concern is the back end, which is undergoing a major reload after losing four starters, including #1 tackler and team leader Ty Benefield (107 tackles, 8.5 TFL). The Broncos will be relying heavily on transfers and the continued excellent play of Jaden Mickey (7 TFL, 5 PBU) to hold things together.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Things look solid here. The Broncos have one of the better kicking tandems in the conference with punter Oscar Doyle and PK Colton Boomer (11/15 FG, 3-3 from 50+). Replacing their primary return men won’t be easy, but there are plenty of athletic options at WR and DB ready to step up.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – WHOA, NELLIE. That opener at Oregon is must-see TV, bay-bee. The rest of the non-conference slate looks very manageable on paper, though a couple won’t be total layups (at Western Michigan, Memphis). The main concern is the brutal back-to-back road swing against Fresno State and Washington State, even with a bye week in between.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Western Michigan (Sept 26)
This game has YUUUGE Group of Six CFP implications, and whilst Boise St has a class advantage, this Western Michigan team is loaded and will be fired up as a home underdog.
Season Win Total
Market consensus – June 23
Over 7.5 -170
Under 7.5 +130
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over
We don’t see them beating Oregon, but they should be able to go 8-3 or better in the other 11 games.
Note – Our official list of season win total investments will be posted in the blog section of the website.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Running back Ian Johnson didn’t just score the winning points in the legendary 2007 Fiesta Bowl upset over Oklahoma — he immediately proposed to his cheerleader girlfriend on national TV. Statue of Liberty play → overtime win → marriage proposal. That’s not a football game, that’s a Hollywood TRILOGY compressed into 30 seconds, yo.
Boise St is 18-2 in their last 20 home games.
The Broncos have dropped their last three bowl games — all by double digits — and haven’t covered the spread in any of their last five bowl appearances.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
Boise St had nothing left to prove in the Mountain West, and now they enter the Pac-12 reboot as legitimate favorites. The offense should roll behind a devastating rushing attack, and if they uncover a gem or two at wideout, they’ll be really fun to watch. The defense still needs to prove it can stop the run, and the secondary doesn’t look as dominant on paper, so it won’t be a cakewalk.
All in all, we fully expect the Broncos to reach the Pac-12 Championship Game — though a few teams in the league will have plenty to say about it.
Fight on, brave Broncos, fight on! Victory for B-S-U!