Texas St Bobcats 2026 College Football Preview
Posted June 25, 2026
2025 Recap
Record – 7-6
ATS – 5-8
The Bobcats got off to a hot start, taking down Eastern Michigan and UTSA whilst scoring a whopping 95 points in the process. And then karma went medieval on Texas State. They lost five games in a row mid-season, four of them by one score, and two of them were in OT. To their credit, they kept on fighting and won their final three regular season games to snag a bowl bid. They kept rolling in the postseason with a 41-10 drubbing of Rice in the Armed Forces Bowl to finish with their third winning season in a row.
Can Texas State keep up their winning ways in the new-look Pac-12?
Texas St Bobcats 2026 Outlook
OFFENSE
2025 By The Numbers (Sun Belt):
- Scoring: 36.5 PPG (#2 Sun Belt)
- Total Offense: 472.8 YPG (#1 Sun Belt)
- Rushing: 222.1 YPG (#3 Sun Belt)
- Passing: 250.8 YPG (#5 Sun Belt)
- Sacks Allowed: 27 (#10 Sun Belt)
Last year, the offense was scarier than BILL GATES with a needle in his hand, holding a bag of genetically modified mosquitoes. The offense is blessed to have star QB Brad Jackson back for another season, and he rocked it in 2025 (71%, 21-7 TD to INT; 744 rush yards, 17 TDs). Those stats went a bit underappreciated, but there’s no doubt that the Bobcats’ opponents are fully aware of what they’re dealing with.
There’s a YUUUGE hole to fill at RB given the departure of 1,000-yard back Lincoln Pare and RB2 Greg Burrell, and they’ll need some new faces to step up. This offense spits out productive RBs on the regular, so maybe Torrance Burgess or Taji Atkins can deliver the goods. Those guys don’t have much size, so our best guess right now is that the Bobcats roll with some kind of rotation.
We can’t wait to talk about the WR group as Texas State has an embarrassment of riches given the return of a PAIR of 1,000-yard receivers in Beau Sparks (1,200 yards, 10 TDs) and Chris Dawn (1,007 yards, 4 TDs). Believe it or not, there are other dudes that are worth watching, including Arizona transfer Zechariah Sample.
The hits keep coming when you talk about an offensive line with experience and impossible heft and GIRTH. The starting five will almost certainly average over 330 pounds, and good luck trying to move RT William Boone (6-6, 374). And apparently, he’s not done growing yet.
DEFENSE
2025 By The Numbers (Sun Belt):
- Scoring Defense: 29.0 PPG (#6 Sun Belt)
- Total Defense: 382.9 YPG (#5 Sun Belt)
- Rush Defense: 164.9 YPG (#6 Sun Belt)
- Pass Defense: 218.1 YPG (#5 Sun Belt)
- Sacks: 27 (#8 Sun Belt)
Considering how potent Texas State was on offense last year, they did enough on defense to support a run for a Sun Belt title. However, as we noted in our preamble, the Bobcats lost a lot of close games during a brutal mid-season stretch.
The Bobcats just might be sneaky-good up front with the return of a healthy Jo’Laison Landry at DE and the addition of interior plug Tae Woody (6-4, 303) from ULM. There are some other quality pieces on the depth chart, and we should see some improvement vs the run.
Leading tackler Treylin Payne is gone from the LB corps, but they still have Ayden Jones and Terrence Cooks hanging around, who both finished in the top five in tackles last season. We also expect LB Javante Mackey to be fully healthy and ready to roll, and recall he had a very productive campaign with Arkansas St back in 2023.
Veteran free safety Ryan Nolan is back to monitor the secondary, but the Bobcats could definitely use some improved play on the back end, particularly if PENETRATION up front is an issue. There is an interesting mix of youngsters and transfers in this unit, and we’ll have to see how everything comes together.
We don’t expect miracles on defense, but they should be a bit stingier under new DC Will Windham (South Alabama).
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Bobcats were well inside the Phil Steele top-20 in special teams performance last year, but we expect a downtick on the horizon, particuarly with the loss of ace PK Tyler Robles (21/23 FG). They also need to find a new punter, but at least Jaylen Jenkins is back to return kickoffs (27.0, TD).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s a bit of a mixed bag. They start with an opening blowout loss to Texas and follow that up with a pair of challenging ones at home (UTSA, North Texas). The other two non-conference games should go in the win column — Incarnate Word and Colorado St (flex). They have to travel to face Boise St in Pac-12 play, but get to face Fresno St at home.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Oregon St (Nov 7)
This is the second of back-to-back road games, and they’ll be coming off a nasty road affair in Boise. Corvallis is one of the toughest places to play, although the Beavers certainly don’t look like a JUGGERNAUT this year. That said, this doesn’t look like great scheduling dynamics for Texas State.
Season Win Total
Market consensus – June 25
Over 6.5 +130
Under 6.5 -170
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage.
These guys are talented enough to hit the over, but the schedule isn’t easy and it’s tough to know how they’ll adjust to life in a new land.
Note – Our official list of season win total investments will be posted in the blog section of the website.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Texas State’s greatest football glory came under legendary coach Jim WACKER, who led the Bobcats to back‑to‑back NCAA Division II national championships in 1981 and 1982. His teams also won three straight Lone Star Conference titles from 1980–1982 as part of a dominant run that included a 27–1 stretch over the two championship seasons.
Long before Boko the costumed Bobcat became the face of Texas State, the school actually kept live bobcats as mascots — right up until the 1970s. Yes, real, clawed, occasionally grumpy bobcats in cages. KAREN would not have been a fan, yo.
Texas State didn’t make its first bowl appearance until 2023 — and they’ve won all three they’ve played in since. Rice has been the victim on two occasions.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
Texas State has stacked three straight winning seasons under head coach G.J. Kinne, and they capped each one with a bowl victory. That gives them plenty of juice as they head into the uncharted waters of the newly constituted Pac-12.
The offense is going to SCORE the FOOTBALL, but the defense needs to take a real step forward if the Bobcats want to sniff the top of the league. The schedule will be a challenge from start to finish, but we view them as a live LONGSHOT to play for all the marbles in early December. Of course, they’ll have to take down at least one of Boise St or Fresno St to enter the conversation.
TEXAS!… STATE!… EAT ’EM UP, CATS!