San Diego St Aztecs 2026 College Football Preview
Posted June 26, 2026
2025 Recap
Record – 9-4
ATS – 10-3
“Why do we fall, Bruce? So we can learn how to pick ourselves up.”
<Thomas Wayne> <Batman Begins, 2005>
San Diego St fell hard from their former heights — 3–9 and 4–8 heading into 2025 — but they delivered an improbable, whiplash‑inducing turnaround by going 9–3 in the regular season and coming within a breath of reaching the Mountain West title game. Expectations are higher this fall as they jump into the Pac‑12 and square off against a brand‑new set of enemies.
After picking themselves up off the mat, the question becomes simple: can they remember that they’re San Diego Freaking State and make a real statement in 2026?
San Diego St Aztecs 2026 Outlook
OFFENSE
2025 By The Numbers (Mountain West):
- Scoring: 26.4 PPG (#7 Mountain West)
- Total Offense: 356.4 YPG (#8 Mountain West)
- Rushing: 198.7 YPG (#2 Mountain West)
- Passing: 157.7 YPG (#10 Mountain West)
- Sacks Allowed: 18 (#3 Mountain West)
The Aztecs got back to what’s worked for them so well in the past, and that’s impose their will with a DEVASTATING ground game. We’re happy to report that star RB Lucky Sutton (1,297 yards, 5.1 avg, 10 TDs) is back to terrorize opposing defenses, along with his partner in crime Christian Washington (563 yards, 5.7 avg, 4 TDs). They’ll be running behind an offensive line that could have a starting five averaging 328 pounds, and there’s adequate experience between the holdovers and transfer additions.
The big question mark is at QB, as the Aztecs had a pathetic 10-10 TD to INT ratio as a team last year and need to find some balance with the THROW GAME. Jayden Denegal showed some promise last year (59%, 9-8 TD to INT, 4 rush TDs), and we expect him to improve in year two as the starter. How high is the ceiling though? That is the question. Denegal gets his top two WRs back in the fold for 2026 in Jordan Napier and Donovan Brown, who combined for over 1,100 receiving yards last season.
We don’t expect miracles, but this should be a much more potent offense than what we saw in 2025.
DEFENSE
2025 By The Numbers (Mountain West):
- Scoring: 15.4 PPG (#1 Mountain West)
- Total Defense: 293.7 YPG (#2 Mountain West)
- Rushing Defense: 129.5 YPG (#2 Mountain West)
- Passing Defense: 164.2 YPG (#2 Mountain West)
- Sacks: 32 (#2 Mountain West)
Yes, guy. That’s more like it. The Aztecs were absolutely suffocating at times on defense, and their strong play on this side of the football almost gave them a chance to play for all the Mountain West marbles.
Things don’t look as promising heading into 2026, as the Aztecs return none of their top-nine tacklers from last season after losing Dalesean Staley to a season-ending ACL injury. They’ve also lost all of their top sack producers, so plenty of new faces will be asked to step up right away.
Only one starter returns up front, but they’ve got three or four guys in the 300-pound range to clog up the middle. The primary job for new DC Demetrius Sumler is to find guys on the edge that can achieve PENETRATION. The good news is that there are a few transfer portal specimens that could fit that bill, and the Aztecs have a long history of finding scary doods that create havoc from the outside.
The LB corps will be fine with the return of a healthy Tano Letuli, who led the team in tackles in 2024, but there could be some issues on the back end given the departure of All-Universe CB Chris Johnson (#6 in tackles, 4 INT), who was taken in the first round of the NFL Draft. They’ll also be without starting safety Dalesean Staley (injury), and that means there will be a whole lot of new troops manning the back end. It could really be problematic if the Aztecs struggle getting to the QB. Stay tuned!
SPECIAL TEAMS
The news isn’t great. The Aztecs finished just outside the top-20 in the Phil Steele special teams rankings last year, and they lose their excellent kicking duo of punter Hunter Green (42.0 net) and PK Gabriel Plascencia (19/23 FG). The good news is that they retain Jordan Napier, who did a good job on PR (TD) and KR (22.4) in 2025.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Yikes. They start with a guaranteed win vs. Portland St, but the other four non-conference tilts are all gonna require their full attention. They play UCLA (A), James Madison (H), and Toledo (A) before Pac-12 play starts, but at least we can say they’ll be battle-tested, yo. They’ve got four home conference games, which helps, but they’ve gotta go on the road to face Boise St near the end of November.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Toledo (Sept 26)
The Aztecs have to make a long trip out to the Midwest to face a really good Toledo squad. San Diego St has its Pac-12 opener up next, and note that the Rockets will be looking to exact revenge for the 2022 loss in San Diego.
Season Win Total
Market consensus – June 26
Over 6.5 -145
Under 6.5 +115
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage.
That looks about right. They’ll be more potent on offense, but expect them to take a step backward on defense. There don’t appear to be very many slam dunks on the schedule.
Note – Our official list of season win total investments will be posted in the blog section of the website.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Jack in the Box was founded in San Diego in 1951 by Robert O. Peterson, and it helped pioneer the modern drive‑thru intercom system that changed fast food forever. The original location sat on El Cajon Boulevard, not far from campus — meaning SDSU students have been fueling late‑night study sessions with it for generations. SAN DIEGO SIZZLER: The city that birthed the drive‑thru doesn’t do slow — and neither does a dialed‑in Sean Lewis offense, bay-bee.
The Aztecs are just 18-27 ATS (40%) as a home favorite over the L10Y, despite going 5-0 (!) against the spread in that role in 2025.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
San Diego St certainly has momentum on its side as it joins the new band of misfits in the Pac-12. We really like the look of the offense if they can squeeze out some improvement at the QB position, but thinking about the defense keeps us up at night. The non-conference slate should get them properly tuned up for the grind of league play, and there’s enough raw potential here to cause some headaches if the stop unit rises to the occasion.
We think they’ll make it back to a bowl game, but only view them as a longshot to take down the Pac-12 spoils in 2026.
Fight on and on ye Aztecs then…
Mighty Montezuma!