Maryland at Penn St – Preview and Prediction
MARYLAND 1.5 PENN ST (57)
Implied Projected Score: Maryland 29.25 Penn St 27.75
MEGALOCKS LINE – Maryland -3
The Game
This is a very interesting under-the-radar game in the Big 10 this weekend. Maryland brings a 4-0 record into Happy Valley (1-0 conference play) to face the Nittany Lions who are sitting at 3-2 after an OT win over the Golden Gophers last weekend. These teams are really close in talent level. And these teams hate each other. Oh boy. Should be fun !
The Match-Up
Maryland offense vs Penn St defense
The last six games dating back to last season, the Terps have ran the ball for 314,401,315,239,246 and 400 yards. WHO HAVE THEY PLAYED GUY can be cynical, but we turn it around and say – who are they playing this week ? They are playing a team that won 7 games in 2014 and 2015. They are playing a team that gave up 341 rushing yards to Pitt, over 300 to Michigan and over 200 to Minnesota. They are playing a team that is very thin at LB to say the least. QB Perry Hills is crafty and can hit the big play in the passing game. The Terps are susceptible to PENETRATION and Penn St will have to do what they can to keep Maryland in 3rd and long situations. That is when they get into trouble. Maryland is not turning the ball over often and Penn St is going to have to find a way to pop the ball loose at some point and maybe steal a FG or TD.
Penn St offense vs Maryland defense
The Nittany Lions have a great RB in Saquon Barkley and easily one of the best WR units in the Big 10. The OL has not done the job. They are dead last in the Big 10 in TFL allowed and Maryland is 2nd in the Big 10 in sacks and 4th in TFL. That PENETRATION is going to prevent the Nittany Lions from consistently moving the football, although we will say, they have been hitting some big plays in the passing game, and we expect them to hit another couple of those on Saturday. Sack yardage is factored in, but the scary thought of the day is that Penn St is averaging 3.34 yards per carry while Maryland is averaging 6.49 with 15 rushing TDs. Maryland can also take consolation in the fact that Penn St is ranked #127 in 3rd down conversions (just behind Florida Atlantic, BG, and UMass).
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
The 2015 and 2014 meetings between these two teams were both decided by one point…..If Penn St can get the win here they will have a decent 4-2 record before playing Ohio St in two weeks…..The Nittany Lions are just 1-7-1 ATS L9 games…..#smallsamplesize…..Each of the top four leading rushers on Maryland is averaging at least 6.5 yards per carry.
Summary
Maryland is on a roll. Given that they want this game really badly, and the reality that Penn St’s defense is really decimated with injuries, we see the Terps controlling the game with the ground attack. HC DJ Durkin is doing a good job with the defense which should be a surprise to nobody. Oh, and Penn St should probably avoid kicking to William Likely.
Conclusion
Official play: Maryland -1.5 -110 (play up to -3)