South Florida Bulls 2026 College Football Preview

South Florida Bulls 2026 College Football Preview

Posted July 3, 2026

2025 Recap

Record – 9-4

ATS – 8-4-1

The Bulls were one of the best stories in the country early in the 2025 season as they defeated Boise St and Florida in back-to-back weeks. After seven games and a record of 6-1, they looked unstoppable, averaging 57 (!) points per game over a four-game stretch. Their American Conference dreams died over the next couple of weeks after upset losses to Memphis and Navy, but a nine-win season is nothing to sneeze at.

Now comes the hard part. New head coach Brian Hartline arrives from Ohio State with a roster that’s been completely gutted by the transfer portal. What can we expect in his first season in Tampa?

South Florida Bulls 2026 Outlook

OFFENSE

2025 By The Numbers (American):

• Scoring: 40.5 PPG (#2 American)
• Total Offense: 488.7 YPG (#2 American)
• Rushing: 212.1 YPG (#3 American)
• Passing: 276.6 YPG (#3 American)
• Sacks Allowed: 21 (#8 American)

USF had one of the most potent and balanced offenses in the nation last year, and they were #3 in YPG, trailing only North Texas and Ole Miss.

There’s a giant CRATER to be filled in the QB room after the departure of superstar dual-threat QB Byrum Brown (3,000+ passing yards, 28 TDs; 1,000+ rushing yards, 14 TDs), but the Bulls did an admirable job in the transfer portal. Michael Van Buren Jr. showed some SKILLZ during his time in the SEC with Mississippi State and LSU (19-9 TD to INT), and he was a very highly-recruited specimen coming out of high school.

The RB room is filled with transfers and it appears at first glance to be a decent-looking committee, but nothing special. Dartmouth transfer D.J. Crowther (5-11, 215) is an absolute load, so it’ll be interesting to see if he can develop into a workhorse. New HC Brian Hartline is known as a WR whisperer, and in some circles a legit WIZARD, so it’ll be interesting to see what he can do with players like Mudia Reuben (495 yards, 5 TD), Armani Winfield (Baylor), Arhmad Branch (Purdue), and Bryson Rodgers (Ohio State).

They need to find four new starters up front, but the offensive line room still boasts close to 100 starts, thanks to heavy lifting in the transfer portal. The projected starting lineup is well over 300 pounds.

DEFENSE

2025 By The Numbers (American):

• Scoring: 23.4 PPG (#4 American)
• Total Defense: 386.5 YPG (#8 American)
• Rushing Defense: 143.7 YPG (#5 American)
• Passing Defense: 242.8 YPG (#12 American)
• Sacks: 33 (#3 American)

The defense gave up quite a few yards last year but was fairly stingy when it came to giving up points, and they were impressive in the PENETRATION department. New DC Josh Aldridge (ARRR Matey!…East Carolina Pirates) only has two of last year’s top-17 tacklers to work with, so he’s got some work to do.

The defensive line has some veteran presence but lacks a true game-wrecker up front. C.J. Hicks (Ohio St) is the clear standout on the edge and should be the most disruptive player up front, while Asani Redwood (West Virginia) brings size and experience inside. The group should be functional, but generating consistent pressure will be a challenge without more playmakers emerging. At LB, the Bulls are leaning heavily on Grayson Howard (Florida) to anchor the middle, but he’s only made 59 tackles over the last three seasons. Ayden Jackson (Georgia Southern) adds some versatility at STAR, but overall the linebacker corps is still relatively young and unproven after losing significant production from last year’s group.

In the secondary, USF has a couple of veteran leaders to build around. Tavin Ward at free safety (#3 in tackles) and Za’Quan Bryan (Minnesota) at corner should provide some stability, but replacing the rest of the experience in the back end won’t be easy. The secondary has the potential to be solid, but it will likely take some time to gel.

SPECIAL TEAMS

USF will have to find a new punter, but they retain PK Nico Gramatica (18/24 FG, 2-5 from 50+), which certainly helps. There are plenty of athletes at WR/DB to produce dangerous return men — we’ll just have to see who emerges.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – WHOA, NELLIE. Don’t look now, but South Florida could run the table in non-conference play. What’s their toughest assignment? At Bowling Green? We’re not as keen on the American schedule, as while it helps to miss Navy, they also miss out on the chance to administer beatings to Charlotte, Rice, and Tulsa. Things get REAL in a hurry as they travel to face Army in Week Two.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Army (Sept 12)

Alert readers will know that we’re very high on Army this season, and their triple-option will almost certainly be too much for a newly-formed defense to handle. The Black Knights are extra-tough at home.

Season Win Total

Market consensus – July 3

Over 8.5 +115

Under 8.5 -145

MEGALOCKS says:

No leanage.

That’s a mighty sharp number. We’d be interested in taking the over if the number was a wee bit lower, but here we are.

Note – Our official list of season win total investments will be posted in the blog section of the website.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

The Tampa Bay region sits in one of North America’s most lightning‑prone zones. The corridor from Tampa through Orlando to Titusville — known as “Lightning Alley” — consistently ranks among the highest in strikes per square mile. The sky’s always angry and looking for someone to hit. Perfect spot for a football team, yo.

USF played its first-ever football game in 1997. Just 10 years later, in 2007, the Bulls reached as high as #2 in the national rankings — one of the quickest ascents of any FBS program in history.

MEGALOCKS Forecast:

The Bulls have emerged from an impossibly brutal three-year stretch from 2020–2022 in which they won a total of four games. Yep, that happened. They’ve had a good three-year run since then, but now face a reset with a new head coach and an essentially brand-new roster.

Go Bulls!