TCU Horned Frogs 2026 College Football Preview
Posted July 31, 2026
2025 Recap
Record – 9-4
ATS – 7-5-1
It was a bit of a rollercoaster ride. The Frogs stormed out to a 3-1 start and were a blown 17-0 lead at Arizona St away from opening unblemished. After slogging through a midseason slump where they traded wins and losses, Sonny Dykes’ crew closed with a vengeance — ripping off a three-game HEATER that culminated in a wild 30-27 OT win over USC in the Alamo Bowl to secure a 9-4 finish.
TCU Horned Frogs 2026 Outlook
OFFENSE
2025 By The Numbers (Big 12):
- Scoring: 30.7 PPG (#6)
- Total Offense: 421.5 YPG (#4)
- Rushing: 131.4 YPG (#14)
- Passing: 290.1 YPG (#2)
- Sacks Allowed: 22 (#9)
It’s not going to be easy replacing QB Josh Hoover, who lit it up last year and threw for almost 10,000 (!) yards during his time in Fort Worth. Hoover will be plying his trade with the defending National Champion Indiana Hoosiers this year, but at least the Horned Frogs hired a talented specimen via the transfer portal. Enter Harvard standout Jaden Craig, who’s got elite measurables (6-3, 230) and a HOSE for an arm that can make all the throws. Craig had a banner season with the Crimson last year (2,869 yards, 25-7 TD-to-INT) and he’ll be an excellent fit for the TCU offensive scheme. The only question is how he handles the rise in class from the Ivy League to the Big 12.
TCU has to be more balanced on offense if they wanna achieve big things, and it’s good to know that they return RB1 Jeremy Payne (623 yards, 5.7 YPC, 5 TD) to lead the charge. The depth behind him is a bit underwhelming, but keep an eye on highly-recruited true freshman ACE Martin and see if he gets a bit of run. The WR room is going to miss star WR Eric McCallister, who flew over the 1,000-yard mark with ease last season (10 TD), but they retain WR2 Jordan Dwyer (730 yards, 7 TD) and our TCU INSIDERS expect big things from sophomore WR Ed Small, who FLASHED in limited action last year. Overall, we’re not overly thrilled with the overall depth at WR, and that’s another reason why TCU might be better off with more emphasis on the ground attack. New OC Gordon Sammis (UConn) will make sure that happens.
We like the look of the offensive line as they boast close to 100 career starts, and the projected starting five weigh in at an average of 317 pounds.
DEFENSE
2025 By The Numbers (Big 12):
- Scoring: 25.3 PPG (#9)
- Total Defense: 378.7 YPG (#9)
- Rushing Defense: 133.1 YPG (#5)
- Passing Defense: 245.6 YPG (#14)
- Sacks: 23 (#10)
The numbers weren’t great overall last year, but they were pretty solid vs the run, and they’ve definitely made strides in their two years under DC Andy Avalos.
There’s great news up front as the Horned Frogs bring back almost everyone from a very effective front. They have large, productive bodies slated to start on the interior in Markis Deal (6-5, 325) and Ansel Din-Mbuh, and the only thing missing from making this a truly elite unit is an apparent lack of dangerous PENETRATORS on the outside. DE Paul Oyewale is a legit starter, but he only registered two sacks last year. Things don’t look as rosy at LB as TCU needs to replace a pair (!) of NFL draft picks, and they’ll need Max Carroll to step up and be a force in the middle. Carroll was a key rotational piece last year and has the potential to rack up a ton of tackles.
TCU struggled vs the pass last year as they gave up a ton of yards and yielded 61% completions. We expect better from the secondary this season as they’ve got one of the best safety tandems in the Big 12 in Jamel Johnson (leading tackler, 5 INT!) and Louisiana Tech transfer Jacob Fields (91 tackles, 3 INT). That said, they’ll need better CB play, particularly if the pass rush has trouble getting home.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The third phase looks like a strength in Fort Worth. Louisiana Tech transfer John Hoyet Chance brings a YUUUGE leg at punter after ranking #4 nationally in FBS with a 47.3-yard average. He pairs with placekicker Kyle Lemmermann, who converted all three of his field goal tries in limited action last season. To top it off, wideout Jordan Dwyer provides explosive potential on punt returns (11.0, TD).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – TCU opens the season in Dublin, Ireland against North Carolina, but they should be able to handle the Tar Heels, and the next two non-conference games are layups. Unfortunately, the list of Big 12 assignments is daunting, as they’ve gotta face BYU (H), Utah (H), and Texas Tech (A). The Horned Frogs also miss out on dominating most of the projected Big 12 bottom feeders.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at UCF (Sept 26)
This marks the Horned Frogs’ first-ever trip into the hostile confines of the BOUNCE HOUSE, and there’s a massive home clash against BYU waiting right around the corner.
Season Win Total
Market consensus – July 30
Over 6.5 -160
Under 6.5 +130
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over
A 3-0 start in non-conference play should be the expectation. From there, even with a brutal league slate, Dykes’ squad has enough overall talent to pocket at least four Big 12 victories.
Note – Our official list of season win total investments will be posted in the blog section of the website.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Behold: TCU Mascot Factoids, yo.
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Real Identity: Texas Horned Lizard (Phrynosoma cornutum).
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Secret Weapon: Reflex bleeding (autohemorrhaging).
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Range & Target: Accurate up to 5 feet, aiming directly for predator mouths/eyes.
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The Takeaway: TCU is officially represented by a reptile that blasts gross-tasting blood out of its eyeballs when pushed into a corner. You’ve gotta respect that.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
The Horned Frogs have been successful in three of Sonny Dykes’ four seasons in Fort Worth, and it wasn’t too long ago (2022) that they made the National Championship Game.
This is one of the more intriguing squads in the Big 12 as they’ll be showcasing a shiny new quarterback and aiming for a more balanced attack. The defense doesn’t look overwhelming, but we like how they look up front. It’s hard to project great things for this team when you look at that conference schedule, so we’ll call for 7–8 wins and another very good, but not great, season for TCU.
Riff Ram Bah Zoo — Go Frogs!