Appalachian St at Louisiana Lafayette – Preview and Prediction
APPALACHIAN ST 10 UL LAFAYETTE (48.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Appalachian St -8.5 Sagarin ratings – Appalachian St -13
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Appalachian St 29.25 ULL 19.25
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Appalachian St 31 ULL 17
The Game
Wednesday night Fun Belt time ! Appalachian St takes their show on the road to Lafayette and starts a stretch of seven straight conference games. Their only losses so far are to Tennessee (OT) and the JUGGERNAUT Miami Hurricanes. The Rajin’ Cajuns are 1-1 so far in conference play with a win over South Alabama and a loss to New Mexico St.
The Match-Up
Appalachian St offense vs UL Lafayette defense
The Mountaineers love to impose their will on the ground but this will be a tougher match-up than you might expect. MEGALOCKS SUN BELT INSIDERS note that ULL is #1 in the conference in yards per rush defense (2.93) and will definitely not be a pushover. App St RB Marcus Cox is questionable but Jalin Moore has filled in admirably and already has a 250+ yard rushing game (Akron) to his credit.
The passing game has not been as dangerous this season as QB T Lamb only has 6 TD passes so far (31 last year). Keep in mind, they did play the Vols and Hurricanes. Overall, we see the running game doing well but not steamrolling. The passing game could get healthy against a ULL secondary that is ranked #110 playing a weak schedule. ULL is ranked #1 in the Sun Belt getting PENETRATION via sacks AND tackles for loss. The will need to be disruptive on Wednesday night. It could get interesting if they get confidence early in the game.
UL Lafayette offense vs Appalachian St defense
LSU transfer A Jennings has done a decent job so far this season for the Rajin’ Cajuns. Sure, he makes some mistakes, but he is a definitely upgrade over the passing ability of Brooks HAACK (2015). Former QB now RB Jalen Nixon is out for the year which hurts the running game, and their top RB Elijah McGuire (1,000 yds 13 TD last yr) was limited due to injury last week. He is their best offensive weapon (rushing, good receiver). We are not huge on overdoing the thought process with injuries. Just keep an eye on his status.
The Mountaineers have been ripped apart by a couple pretty good offenses. We do not see the ULL offense presenting a consistent challenge. Big plays will probably equal the mistakes by Jennings. It would help out a lot if the defense could set the offense up with some short fields but the ULL return game is not very good and their turnover margin is poor.
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
ULL is in the unusual position as a home underdog…..grab your popcorn….The last two seasons App St won convincingly….28-7 at home and 35-16 in Lafayette…..Amaze your mother-in-law with this kooky stat…..ULL has played 6 OT periods in their last two games (both losses).
Summary
It is a battle between THEY ARE GONNA KILL EM GUY and CROWD WILL BE ROCKING GUY (a crazy WHITE OUT will be in effect)…..Feels like a few too many points to be laying although our ratings seem to be the outlier…..Our worry is the cluster of injuries at the RB and DL position for ULL but we would be surprised if they laid a complete egg.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: App St TT under 30 for small potatoes if that number becomes available.