Duke at Louisville – Preview and Prediction
LOUISVILLE 35 DUKE (72)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Louisville -27 Sagarin ratings – Louisville -24.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Louisville 53.5 Duke 18.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Louisville 42 Duke 21
The Game
The last time we saw the Cardinals in action they were playing an incredibly entertaining game with the Clemson Tigers. The eating of fake ice cream thankfully stopped when the Cards were stopped a yard short of a first down on 4th and 12. Surely, Louisville will be out to punish someone this week. The lucky victim (?) is Duke who has had an up and down start to the season and sit at 3-3.
The Match-Up
Louisville offense vs Duke defense
QB Lamar Jackson has been absolutely phenomenal. Jackson has 14 rushing TDs to go along with his 14 TD passes. Literally, every time they snap the ball is a potential TD just waiting to happen. Jackson takes a lot of deep shots down the field and the Duke secondary is going to be severely tested. The Cards are the #1 offense in the FBS and are ranked #4 in rushing and #11 in passing which is pretty amazing. Duke’s defense is ranked #26 in the FBS but have really only played one team with a really good offense (Notre Dame), and while they won that game, they gave up 35 points. Duke has shown no ability to slow down dynamic offenses in the last dozen or so games dating back to last season. Hard to see them having much success on Friday night.
Duke offense vs Louisville defense
QB Daniel Jones was thrown into the fire this season and has looked pretty good other than in the Virginia game when he threw seemingly 28 interceptions. Overall, Duke has been inconsistent in the running game and has turned the ball over too many times. Duke may be able to get some things going in the passing game, but if it is consistently 3rd and long, Jones will be taking a beating and/or throwing interceptions.
MEGALOCKS ACC INSIDERS are trying to dig up intel on starting RB Jela Duncan (#1 rusher) and starting center Austin Davis. Based on the enormous point spread, our guess is that oddsmakers are way ahead of us, and are probably conceding that both guys are out. You probably want all hands on deck vs the Cards.
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
Louisville should come out smoking in this one….Or will they be a bit flat after the Clemson game ?….We would bet on the former but you never know….Duke is 8-3 ATS L11 away games…..The Cards have given up 20+ points in every game this season other than the contest vs Charlotte.
Summary
Any way you slice it this is too many points to lay from a perceived value perspective. The problem of course is that Louisville is probably the only team right now that can score 60+ seemingly at will unless they are facing a really good defense. This also feels like a lay down and die spot for Duke because they have a bye week up next and need to go into their final 5 games rested and healthy to make a run at bowl season.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Lean: None. (total seems high but if the Cards but in back-ups on defense in the second half we saw what happened in the Marshall game)