San Diego St at Fresno St – Preview and Prediction
SAN DIEGO ST 16.5 FRESNO ST (53.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – San Diego St -17 Sagarin ratings – San Diego St 14.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: San Diego St 35 Fresno St 18.5
Massey Ratings Projected Score: San Diego St 34 Fresno St 17
The Game
Are the Aztecs ready to go on another undefeated run to a conference championship ? Their defense has shown more holes than we thought they might, but nonetheless, they stand at 4-1 (1-0 MW) with their only blemish being a road upset at the hands of the feisty South Alabama Jaguars. The Fresno St offense has shown some signs off life but the defense has been generally horrible. Exhibit A – blowing a 31-0 lead at home vs Tulsa.
The Match-Up
San Diego St offense vs Fresno St defense
Star RB Donnel Pumphrey is approaching 1,000 yards (891) and we have not even reached the middle of October. We shudder at the thought of what he might do to some of the soft run defenses left on the schedule. Oh look ! It’s Fresno St. They have given up over 270 yards rushing per game so far this season at over 5 yards a pop. Pumphrey and RB mate Rashaad Penny should have a monster day against the soft underbelly of the Bulldogs. QB Christian Chapman is most dangerous in games like this where the running game is definitely going to work. Prognois: Pain.
Fresno St offense vs San Diego St defense
QB Chason Virgil has been an upgrade over the injured mess that existed at QB last season. Virgil got some work in before he was hurt last season and has thrown 9 TD passes vs 4 INT so far in 2016. The Bulldogs boast three WR with over 400 yards receiving and are going to inflict some damage on an Aztec secondary that has shown some weakness vs good passing attacks. They held UNLV to 9 passing yards last wk (!) but will be tested on Friday night. Dontel James is a fine RB but the only way we see the Bulldogs competing in this game is on the arm of Virgil. Of course, if San Diego St plays keep-away like we think they will, Fresno may not get that many opportunities with the ball.
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
San Diego St was 9-0 SU in conference games last season and are an amazing 28-6 SU L34 MW games….The last two meetings between these two teams have been 21-7 SD St and 24-13 Fresno…in fact….the road team has won 8 of the last 10 SU……Fresno QB C Virgil is going to have to do better than the sub .500 completion percentage that he has featured so far this season.
Summary
We see no reason to believe the Aztecs cannot rush for 275+ yards. If that is the case it is going to be a big win for San Diego St, with the only question being whether or not Fresno can come up with some points and keep spread-backers interested.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Leans: Over 54 or better.