North Carolina at Miami – Preview and Prediction
MIAMI 8 NORTH CAROLINA (64)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Miami -8.5 Sagarin ratings – Miami -9.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Miami 36 North Carolina 28
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Miami 34 North Carolina 28
The Game
Oh, those wacky extra points. Miami is coming off a tough loss to Florida St and stay at home this week to face the North Carolina Tar Heels who are almost always good for an entertaining game. Well, except for last week. Both teams have only one conference loss. Huge game in the ACC Coastal Division.
The Match-Up
Miami offense vs UNC defense
Miami has to go back to work after only managing 276 yards against what we thought was a sub-par Florida St defense. Whoa, were we wrong. The Seminoles showed why the are such a strong program and won a big road game. Miami faces what we REALLY believe is a soft defense this week. UNC has given up 33,23,28,36,35,34 in their six contests this season. They are ranked #113 in rushing defense and that is bad news going up against the excellent Hurricanes’ rushing attack. Walton and Yearby have combined for over 800 yards rushing in 5 games, and when Miami can establish the run, the passing game is pretty deadly. Hard to see Miami having trouble scoring in this game.
UNC offense vs Miami defense
QB Mitch Trubisky has played very well with 14 TD passes and only 2 INT and he is completing over 70% of his passes. UNC also features two excellent RBs although E Hood is listed as questionable for this game. Miami gets fantastic PENETRATION (#8 sacks per game, #1 TFL per game) and UNC does not do a great job of keeping the QB clean (9th ACC sacks allowed per game) and allowing TFL (12th ACC TFL per game). UNC should hit some big plays but Miami will have an easier time on offense and will get more stops on defense and probably win the turnover battle.
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
Tough sandwich spot for the Hurricanes coming off the loss to Florida St and they have Virginia Tech on deck Thursday night….That probably offsets any revenge angle….Do not forget UNC wiped the floor with Miami 59-21 last season…..The dog is 8-3-1 ATS L12 in the series.
Summary
UNC has proven pedigree this season beating Fla St and a pretty good Pittsburgh team. They might have beat Georgia if not for 18 pass interference calls in the 2nd half. We lean Miami on the fundamentals but cannot endorse a full play on Miami due to the horrible situational spot.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Leans: Miami TT over 37 or better.