Kansas St at Oklahoma – Preview and Prediction
OKLAHOMA 14 KANSAS ST (58)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Oklahoma -10 Sagarin ratings – Oklahoma -10
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Oklahoma 36 Kansas St 22
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Oklahoma 37 Kansas St 27
The Game
Revenge or repeat ? Last season the Sooners clobbered Kansas St 55-0 in Manhattan. This season they get the Wildcats at home and are coming off big wins vs TCU and Texas. Kansas St brings the best defense in the Big 12 to Norman this Saturday and will try to keep this one close and come up with a big play or two to pull the upset.
The Match-Up
Oklahoma offense vs Kansas St defense
This is going to be a great match-up. The Sooners have a devastating running game to go with a passing attack that can strike for TDs from anywhere on the field. WR DeDe Westbrook has emerged as a big-time playmaker and Kansas St will have to be extra careful to not let him kill them over the top. The Wildcats can bring the heat at the QB and are also the #3 ranked run defense in the FBS. The Sooners can run on anyone, but the Wildcats will be able to get some stops. The Sooners love to give the ball away and are ranked #120 in turnover margin and the Wildcats will punish you for mistakes. Oklahoma is frustrating because they look so great at times (42-3 run vs TCU; almost lost) and so bad for a couple of small stretches every week.
Kansas St offense vs Oklahoma defense
The Kansas St passing game has been pretty much non-existent this season. The good news for the Wildcats is that the Sooners’ pass defense has been shredded all season, and even a pedestrian attack like the one Kansas St possesses is going to do some damage at some point. The Wildcats rely on the Jones/Ertz/Warmack combination to do most of the work on the ground and keep the chains moving. Oklahoma will want to play the game at a fast pace, but if you watched the West Virginia / K St game, it was really amazing how the Wildcats slowed that game down and almost stole a victory on the road. The Sooners are banged up on defense but do have a relatively strong run defense. Not the ideal match-up for the Wildcats.
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
Amaze the babes at your local pub with this gem….Kansas St is 42-18-1 ATS their past 61 conference games for an ATS mark of 70%…..The road team was won the last five meetings SU…..Sooners are coming off big wins vs TCU and Texas.
Summary
Oklahoma is potent. No doubt about that. This just feels like too many points. They scored 59,52,45 against teams that do not even care about defense. They scored 23 and 24 against good defenses. Kansas St is in that category. Kansas St also has excellent special teams and has only fumbled the ball twice all season (lost 1). The Sooners seemingly fumble on every drive.
Conclusion
Official play: Kansas St +14 -110 (play no lower than +13) (play was sent out Friday am 8:58 EST)