BYU at Boise St – Preview and Prediction
BOISE ST 7 BYU (57.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Boise -7 Sagarin ratings – Boise -5.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Boise 32.25 BYU 25.25
Massey Ratings Projected Score: Boise 30 BYU 27
The Game
Another fine Thursday night match-up is in store for us as the undefeated Boise St Broncos take on the BYU Cougars. This is probably the Broncos’ toughest game of the season, although the more we think about it, that Washington St win is looking pretty good right about now. BYU is sitting at 4-3 and we have been very impressed by their tenacity. Their schedule is only ranked #18 in difficulty according to the Sagarin ratings but they have not had a breather all season. A deep and varied slate of opponents with many games going down to the wire. Boise and BYU do NOT like each other (#HotTake) so this game should be very interesting to watch.
The Match-Up
Boise St offense vs BYU defense
The Broncos will need to show some balance to win this game. The BYU run D has been pretty solid this season (3.5 yards per carry – #27) and the Broncos boast a fine RB in the “McWEAPON” Jeremy McNichols who has 775 yards rushing (11 TDs) to go along with 20 receptions (3 TDs). There is no much depth in the RB unit but JM has carried the load very well so far this season.
The real advantage that Boise has will be in the passing game. Boise in ranked #8 in passing efficiency while the Cougars are ranked #96 in pass efficiency defnese. BYU has looked pretty good against pedestrian air attacks but not as solid vs teams like Toledo and West Virginia. Boise can stretch the field and BYU is going to have to play their best defense to win this game. BYU has come up with 12 INTs so far, so all is not lost, but they have also allowed 66% completions which plays right into the hands of what Boise likes to do on offense.
BYU offense vs Boise defense
The Cougars have a good shot to keep this game very interesting. RB Jamaal Williams is having a monster season so far (942 yards 10 TDs) and the Broncos were very average against the run last week vs Colorado St, the week after giving up almost 400Y rushing to New Mexico. Sure, the Lobos run on everyone, but there is a least reason to believe that BYU can run the ball some and keep the 3rd downs to manageable situations. The passing game is incredibly annoying to defend as they seemingly have 19 guys who are all averaging 10 yards per catch. Seven different players have TD receptions and nobody has more than two. BYU has the MINERALS to play a smart and crafty game on offense and frustrate the Broncos. They just cannot get into a shootout.
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
The home team was won the last 5 games between these two squads….Boise is #100 in turnover margin while BYU is #17….not saying just saying…..BYU is 13-6 L19 ATS vs Mtn West teams.
Summary
This game should be a really good one. Initially we were hoping for a lower spread with the view of taking the Broncos, but further investigation places us more in the neutral camp on this bad boy.
BYU has been tough all season and there is no reason to believe that they do not have one more beauty left in the tank. The biggest risk is getting quickly shredded apart by the Boise passing attack and watching the game get out of hand. BYU has a good enough run game and a crafty QB to make this a game. Just do not get killed with turnovers.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Lean: None as of yet. Game looks pretty well lined. Would want less than 7 to play Boise and 10+ to play BYU.