Oregon at California – Preview and Prediction
CALIFORNIA -3 OREGON (87.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – California -2.5 Sagarin ratings – California -1
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: California 45.25 Oregon 42.25
Massey Ratings Projected Score: California 48 Oregon 45
The Game
It is not a misprint ! The total for this game is at an eye-popping 87.5 and there is no reason to believe that these teams cannot come up with 90+ points. Both teams are licking their wounds. Oregon is sitting at 2-4 but has played a pretty tough schedule. The three-point losses to Nebraska and Colorado do not look so bad right now. They can still go on a post-bye run and play spoiler while making a bowl game. The Golden Bears have also played a pretty tough schedule, but the docket gets even tougher after the Oregon game. They are going to do well to get to bowl eligibility and a win this Friday night would really help the cause.
The Match-Up
Cal offense vs Oregon defense
Some of the Cal stars on offense are a bit banged up but all of them look ready to go. And to be honest, what team is not dealing with injuries at this time of year ? We really like the toughness of Davis Webb at QB and Cal did a great job of replacing Jared Goff and getting another QB to fit right into the system. The Golden Bears also have a sneaky-good running game with Tre Watson just 3 yards short of making it a TRIO of 300-yard rushers. WR Chad Hansen might have the best hands in the PAC 12.
The Oregon defense has been beyond horrible this season. They have played some decent teams, but overall, it has been very difficult to watch. The Ducks are ranked #118 against the run and #103 in pass efficiency defense. Webb has only thrown 7 INT all season. It sure feels like the only thing that can stop the Cal offense will be themselves.
Oregon offense vs Cal defense
Oregon’s running game was still been pretty good despite the reports of its demise. Their top 3 RBs are all averaging over 6.9 yards per carry including star Royce Freeman. QB Dakota Prukop has been efficient and has only thrown 2 INT this season. Cal has a rotten run defense (#127 FBS !) and this could not be a worse match-up. Oregon should also be able to move the ball in chunks without much difficulty.
MEGA-MAZEMENT !
Oregon has won the last 7 meetings between these two teams…..The scores of the last 5 meetings…44-28 59-41 55-16 59-17 43-15….The Ducks are still 22-6-1 L29 ATS in road games so you have to respect their ability to play well on the road until (IF) the team totally implodes.
Summary
These games are hard to predict. It is probably going to come down to the defense that can actually hold the other team to a FG or two instead of TDs. And of course, the turnover battle will be massive. Any extra possessions in this game are going to be crushing. It feels like Oregon might play their best game of the season this week but cannot trust that defense.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Lean: Oregon at +3 or better